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Nice to see some focus on this, as I believe so many of the ills of the present days has been caused by this mathiness. I don't think math or mathematical model
by jernfrost 10y ago
Nice to see some focus on this, as I believe so many of the ills of the present days has been caused by this mathiness. I don't think math or mathematical models are bad per say, but they have clearly been used in the wrong way in too many instances. Ones has placed far too much faith in simplified models of the real world.
We don't like the messy world of human interactions and so we have tried to turn it all into math, while overstating the utility or applicability of the models.
It is a bit like trying to create a mathematical models for determining the quality of a persons character rather than simply relying on people's subjective characterizations. We forget that humans have brains which are very good at processing massive amounts of messy data. Instead of relying on human brains why have outsourced the task to mathematical models which can't easily deal with messy data, and thus simplify the world to the point where quite essential characteristics are lost.
Also as a software developer I think we could gain a lot by employing more agent based simulations to the economics field. I think too much of the dynamics of a system over time is lost by relying so exclusively on mathematical equations.
Too much of economic science also seems to have turned into a political ideology for many on the right. The fact that a mathematical model predicts inefficiencies from taxation in a free market, seems to make some people believe it is inherently bad with taxation and it must be limited at all cost.
Such models should always be compared with real world data, where there has never been found a clear evidence that higher taxes really retards economic growth the way a simple model predicts. Naturally because an economy is extremely complicated with many interdependent variables.
Higher taxes might cause worse allocation of resources but it might also allow for better schools and thus better skills among workers increasing efficiency more than is lost through distortions of taxations. Not claiming it is like that, but giving food for thought about the idea that it is hard to look at these models in isolation.
Mathematical models were used in the late 70s to argue in favor of high CEO salaries. We know today that there is no empirical evidence that it worked. Western economies are not growing faster and companies are not better run. There is no provable difference between highly paid CEOs and lower paid CEOs.
This shows the danger of such mathematical models. They become self fulfilling prophecies. Once people start using them, they keep using them because of inertia and the tendency to conform and stick to traditions.