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Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand
- protomyth 10y agoDoes "Hot Hand" mean something different to statisticians than then sport's participants? I ask because I'm seeing code in the article's comments that doesn't correspond to what I would think is the definition.
- tingletech 10y agoThis is from the abstract to the "original paper" according to the comments: "We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player’s chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot."
- protomyth 10y ago> Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player’s chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. Interesting. That's certainly not what I believe, but I guess they've done the research. In my circle, it was the belief that sometime you get in a zone and really are having a good day, feeling good, and shooting well. I certainly have had basketball and golf games where I made some shots, but didn't think I had the hot hand. I've also been on the floor when I felt really well and hit quite a few in a row. That's the hot hand from a player's perspective. This really sounds like a simplified scenario that doesn't really have anything to do with what players talk about.
- wodenokoto 10y agoThank you for clarifying. I thought this was some sort of poker game they were talking about. The article needs a better introduction, imho.