7 ms·

The fact is overpopulation isn't an issue, it's a myth. World population is decellerating at a rapid pace and will begin decreasing within decades. It's painfu

The fact is overpopulation isn't an issue, it's a myth. World population is decellerating at a rapid pace and will begin decreasing within decades. It's painfully obvious to anybody who looks at the numbers. But science fiction has convinced everyone otherwise. Just look at all the countries with programs trying to entice their citizens to start families and make babies. Governments know its going to be a catastrophe. Our governments spend money at a rate that only a larger population in the future can afford to pay for. If families aren't producing above the replacement rate, we're doomed.

lqdc13 10y ago
It's not painfully obvious to UN or anyone else noteworthy. Was it also painfully obvious that USSR was going to break up and Russia would have stalled with population growth? https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Population_of_former_USSR.PNG https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Populati... None of the current trends made sense 30 yrs ago. And in 30 yrs there could be major geopolitical changes that would make current projections useless.
- AnAfrican 10y ago
  But the worry about overpopulation has been damn near constant. Rebuked again and again and again each time we reached the previous "unsustainable" threshold.
- concinds 10y ago
  "Overpopulation"-hysteria is a short-sighted, semi-genocidal ideology (see: People's Republic of China). The same people that a decade ago were worrying about overpopulation in Germany are now clamoring for more migrants from the Global South countries to keep up population growth ("these are our future engineers and doctors"). Proof of how unworkable it is. European economies would simply collapse without population growth to feed social security. And aging populations are a ridiculously undesirable outcome for any country Current projections aren't useless. The higher your socioeconomic status, the lower your fertility rate, period. The correlation couldn't be clearer. Geopolitical events could cause temporary changes but obviously wouldn't change the underlying trend. Bringing up the existence of Black Swans to disprove trends is logically flawed. So there's a clear downwards pressure on fertility rates, in the West, which includes propaganda about "overpopulation" that obviously quite a few people believe in, and that guides their decisions; it also includes socioeconomic improvements. What possible trend could act as an upward pressure? Is there anything more pathological (psychologically-speaking) than the belief that humans are themselves a pathology
  - lqdc13 10y ago
    "The higher your socioeconomic status, the lower your fertility rate, period." Only in a portion of Western culture that has very similar cultural and religious values and also incidentally responsible for a relatively rich middle class. Counter examples: Haredi Jews Hong Kong Macao So your predictions are contingent on the assumption that the culture won't change or that specific religions wouldn't be more prevalent.
Reason077 10y ago
"The fact is overpopulation isn't an issue, it's a myth." Global population isn't evenly distributed. Some countries and areas are definitely overpopulated. What constitutes overpopulation can vary according to climate and economic changes. Just look at Syria, where unprecedented drought caused 75% of the country's farms to fail, led to mass migration from rural areas to cities, and ultimately to civil war and significant depopulation. "Our governments spend money at a rate that only a larger population in the future can afford to pay for. If families aren't producing above the replacement rate, we're doomed." No, it's a myth that populations need to be perpetually growing in order to maintain economic growth. Growth can also be achieved through technological development. Developments in Robotics, AI, etc will improve labour productivity, meaning we can continue to raise living standards without necessarily increasing population in perpetuity.
- concinds 10y ago
  >Global population isn't evenly distributed. Some countries and areas are definitely overpopulated. Do you mean the West, or for example Africa? The West is often brought up, but it's below replacement level. Africa will definitely have problems, and we need to a) bring them safe, effective birth control, so they can make their own choices, and b) solve infant mortality. The goal should be 2.0 fertility rates everywhere. "Overpopulation" isn't even remotely a problem anywhere in the West, the opposite is. >What constitutes overpopulation can vary according to climate and economic changes. Just look at Syria, where unprecedented drought caused 75% of the country's farms to fail, led to mass migration from rural areas to cities, and ultimately to civil war and significant depopulation. 1) You haven't established that the Syrian population was "too high for its natural carrying capacity", which is a normative and not positive statement. A drought doesn't necessarily signify that. This is a social and political problem (did they not receive pensions?), not an overpopulation problem. 2) Are you arguing that, because many died as a result of the drought, many shouldn't have been born in the first place? Seems circular. >No, it's a myth that populations need to be perpetually growing in order to maintain economic growth. Growth can also be achieved through technological development. Many countries in the West are below replacement levels. That carries its own problems. The people campaigning against overpopulation seem to also be targeting the West, which I find absurd.
iiiggglll 10y ago
No argument with any of that, but I think that the theme of the movie in question was merely using a population crash as a proxy to explore what happens to society when it has lost all hope for the future. I don't believe it was actually trying make any statements in particular regarding risks around population growth (or decline).

lqdc13 10y ago

It's not painfully obvious to UN or anyone else noteworthy. Was it also painfully obvious that USSR was going to break up and Russia would have stalled with population growth? https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Population_of_former_USSR.PNG https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Populati... None of the current trends made sense 30 yrs ago. And in 30 yrs there could be major geopolitical changes that would make current projections useless.

AnAfrican 10y ago
But the worry about overpopulation has been damn near constant. Rebuked again and again and again each time we reached the previous "unsustainable" threshold.
concinds 10y ago
"Overpopulation"-hysteria is a short-sighted, semi-genocidal ideology (see: People's Republic of China). The same people that a decade ago were worrying about overpopulation in Germany are now clamoring for more migrants from the Global South countries to keep up population growth ("these are our future engineers and doctors"). Proof of how unworkable it is. European economies would simply collapse without population growth to feed social security. And aging populations are a ridiculously undesirable outcome for any country Current projections aren't useless. The higher your socioeconomic status, the lower your fertility rate, period. The correlation couldn't be clearer. Geopolitical events could cause temporary changes but obviously wouldn't change the underlying trend. Bringing up the existence of Black Swans to disprove trends is logically flawed. So there's a clear downwards pressure on fertility rates, in the West, which includes propaganda about "overpopulation" that obviously quite a few people believe in, and that guides their decisions; it also includes socioeconomic improvements. What possible trend could act as an upward pressure? Is there anything more pathological (psychologically-speaking) than the belief that humans are themselves a pathology
- lqdc13 10y ago
  "The higher your socioeconomic status, the lower your fertility rate, period." Only in a portion of Western culture that has very similar cultural and religious values and also incidentally responsible for a relatively rich middle class. Counter examples: Haredi Jews Hong Kong Macao So your predictions are contingent on the assumption that the culture won't change or that specific religions wouldn't be more prevalent.

Reason077 10y ago

"The fact is overpopulation isn't an issue, it's a myth." Global population isn't evenly distributed. Some countries and areas are definitely overpopulated. What constitutes overpopulation can vary according to climate and economic changes. Just look at Syria, where unprecedented drought caused 75% of the country's farms to fail, led to mass migration from rural areas to cities, and ultimately to civil war and significant depopulation. "Our governments spend money at a rate that only a larger population in the future can afford to pay for. If families aren't producing above the replacement rate, we're doomed." No, it's a myth that populations need to be perpetually growing in order to maintain economic growth. Growth can also be achieved through technological development. Developments in Robotics, AI, etc will improve labour productivity, meaning we can continue to raise living standards without necessarily increasing population in perpetuity.

concinds 10y ago
>Global population isn't evenly distributed. Some countries and areas are definitely overpopulated. Do you mean the West, or for example Africa? The West is often brought up, but it's below replacement level. Africa will definitely have problems, and we need to a) bring them safe, effective birth control, so they can make their own choices, and b) solve infant mortality. The goal should be 2.0 fertility rates everywhere. "Overpopulation" isn't even remotely a problem anywhere in the West, the opposite is. >What constitutes overpopulation can vary according to climate and economic changes. Just look at Syria, where unprecedented drought caused 75% of the country's farms to fail, led to mass migration from rural areas to cities, and ultimately to civil war and significant depopulation. 1) You haven't established that the Syrian population was "too high for its natural carrying capacity", which is a normative and not positive statement. A drought doesn't necessarily signify that. This is a social and political problem (did they not receive pensions?), not an overpopulation problem. 2) Are you arguing that, because many died as a result of the drought, many shouldn't have been born in the first place? Seems circular. >No, it's a myth that populations need to be perpetually growing in order to maintain economic growth. Growth can also be achieved through technological development. Many countries in the West are below replacement levels. That carries its own problems. The people campaigning against overpopulation seem to also be targeting the West, which I find absurd.

iiiggglll 10y ago

No argument with any of that, but I think that the theme of the movie in question was merely using a population crash as a proxy to explore what happens to society when it has lost all hope for the future. I don't believe it was actually trying make any statements in particular regarding risks around population growth (or decline).