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I'd love to hear why you believe 6% is a reasonably fair expectation of annualised stock market returns going forward for the next 10-20 years!
by HappyTypist 10y ago
I'd love to hear why you believe 6% is a reasonably fair expectation of annualised stock market returns going forward for the next 10-20 years!
- lingben 10y agoI'd love to hear his rational as well, in the meantime, here's what I've found: https://www.elmfunds.com/blog/video-the-most-important-number-you-wont-find-in-the-wall-street-journal/ https://www.elmfunds.com/blog/video-the-most-important-numbe...
- cjlars 10y agoIt's in line with historical averages, some decades are slightly down or up a lot, but over, say 30 year horizons, public equity delivers reasonably consistent returns. A 6% real return on the S&P 500 is a pretty standard assumption in the finance biz. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/how-have-stocks-fared-the-last-50-years-youll-be-s.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/how-have-st...
- FabHK 10y agoFWIW, I think it's optimistic to assume 6% real returns for retirement planning purposes the coming decades.
- cjlars 10y agoSerious question: Why do you think that and how did you get there? Real returns 1950-2009 are 7% [1], so my numbers are already rounded down a bit. You might further adjust for, say Shiller 10 year P/E numbers, but how complex do you want to make it? [1] http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...