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That's the opposite of how history has played out with respect to violence, however. It is far easier (and less risky) to kill vast numbers of people now than i
by adriand 10y ago
That's the opposite of how history has played out with respect to violence, however. It is far easier (and less risky) to kill vast numbers of people now than it was hundreds and thousands of years ago, and yet the risk of any one person being killed by violence is far lower than at any previous point in history.
- jameswilsterman 10y agoHow are you calculating the 'risk of any one person being killed by violence' today? To make that claim you need to consider tail risk and black swan events that are possible but have little precedent. What weight are you giving the likelihood of a person dying by nuclear weapon?
- adriand 10y agoWell, for example, "about 15% of people in prestate eras died violently, compared to about 3% of the citizens of the earliest states". http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240531119041067045765832... As far as predicting the future goes, I can't.