5 ms·

It depends on what you mean by "rich". If your goal is to be a billionaire, then yes, luck plays a major role. But if you simply want to get to the 99th percent

by whack 10y ago

It depends on what you mean by "rich". If your goal is to be a billionaire, then yes, luck plays a major role. But if you simply want to get to the 99th percentile of income/wealth, that can be achieved in a pretty replicable manner. Study hard in HS -> Go to a good college -> Work your ass off for a good GPA -> go do a MBA/JD/MD/CS degree at an elite university -> get a six figure job and work your ass off. Not much luck involved there. Interestingly, you don't need to have mensa-level IQ to achieve the above either. Hard work and grit is far more important, which is what the article is saying as well.

lisper 10y ago
There cannot possibly be a reliable process to get you to the 99th percentile, because by definition 99% of people won't get there. Hard work will reliably get you to the 99th percentile only in a world where only 1% of people work hard.
- whack 10y ago
  > "Hard work will reliably get you to the 99th percentile only in a world where only 1% of people work hard." Yes, and that's exactly the world we live in today. Most people don't work hard enough in their teenage-years/20s to become high paying doctors/lawyers/bankers.
  - lisper 10y ago
    Do you have any actual evidence to support that assertion, or are you just affirming the consequent? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent)
    - whack 10y ago
      I'm making an assertion based on my own personal experiences, just like I'm assuming you're doing as well. I've yet to meet someone who studied/worked all the time during their high-school/college/career, and still failed to secure a six figure income.
      - jwatte 10y ago
        (Assuming US differs and jobs here) A six figure income is way below 99%. It's below 90% for most six figure earners in the US. You need seven figures to get to the top 1%. I know smart people who worked very hard in high school and university who aren't even in the 90%. In fact, you are very unlikely to get into the 1% based on things you learn in college. You mostly have to be in finance or run a successful business to get there, or be quite lucky.
        Godel_unicode 10y ago
        The top 1% in the US is around $500k/year, but that's not actually what you care about for measuring wealth. Many members of the top 1% are only there for 1 year, and of those who make it multiple years, even fewer manage 10+. The number you should care about is net-worth. High net worth from a lifetime of careful financial decisions is much more indicative of success than being in the 1% for a year or two. It requires hard work, planning, and life-long frugality. This is in line with OPs assertion that working hard and planning for the future is uncommon and will get you far. http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/top-1/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/top-1/index.htm...
      - lisper 10y ago
        A six-figure income does not put you in the top 1%. $100k/yr doesn't even get you into the top 20%. To get into the top 1% you have to make more than $500k/yr. http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/35049/mailbag-how-to-know-if-youre-rich http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/35049/mailbag-how-...
        classybull 10y ago
        You're comparing two different metrics. Your source talks about household income, which is generally a measure of two primary incomes. You're comparing a single income to two incomes. whatsmypercent.com utilizes some good datasets to build out income percentiles. They suggest that $100k/year puts in the the 96% percentile. The 80% percentile starts around $42k/year. That being said, it is kind of a long tail situation, due to the effects of wealth inequality in this country. The 99% percentile starts at $193k/year.
  - antisthenes 10y ago
    Ah, yes. If someone challenges the luck/grit dogma, throw the just world fallacy at it method.
- therealdrag0 10y ago
  "only in a world where only 1% of people work hard." -- AND choose the steps that are reproducible. I'm very smart, but I got an English Degree thinking I would be a writer taught english for pennies and almost went into philosophy before thinking I didn't want to be poor and went into development (already had taught myself programming in highschool). Not all paths that can be worked hard on produce wealth.
Rainymood 10y ago
>replicable manner. Study hard in HS -> Go to a good college -> Work your ass off for a good GPA -> go do a MBA/JD/MD/CS degree at an elite university -> get a six figure job and work your ass off. Not much luck involved there. >Not much luck involved there. Except being born in a white rich household with access to food, water, shelter, support system, good high school so you can go to an elite college. Do you think everyone born in Africa/China (just to name a few countries) have the option to take this route you describe?
- whack 10y ago
  I was making my comment in the context of developed nations where everyone has access to public schooling and college loans/financial-aid. It certainly doesn't apply to those in developing nations.

by whack 10y ago

lisper 10y ago

There cannot possibly be a reliable process to get you to the 99th percentile, because by definition 99% of people won't get there. Hard work will reliably get you to the 99th percentile only in a world where only 1% of people work hard.

whack 10y ago
> "Hard work will reliably get you to the 99th percentile only in a world where only 1% of people work hard." Yes, and that's exactly the world we live in today. Most people don't work hard enough in their teenage-years/20s to become high paying doctors/lawyers/bankers.
- lisper 10y ago
  Do you have any actual evidence to support that assertion, or are you just affirming the consequent? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent)
  - whack 10y ago
    I'm making an assertion based on my own personal experiences, just like I'm assuming you're doing as well. I've yet to meet someone who studied/worked all the time during their high-school/college/career, and still failed to secure a six figure income.
    - jwatte 10y ago
      (Assuming US differs and jobs here) A six figure income is way below 99%. It's below 90% for most six figure earners in the US. You need seven figures to get to the top 1%. I know smart people who worked very hard in high school and university who aren't even in the 90%. In fact, you are very unlikely to get into the 1% based on things you learn in college. You mostly have to be in finance or run a successful business to get there, or be quite lucky.
      - Godel_unicode 10y ago
        The top 1% in the US is around $500k/year, but that's not actually what you care about for measuring wealth. Many members of the top 1% are only there for 1 year, and of those who make it multiple years, even fewer manage 10+. The number you should care about is net-worth. High net worth from a lifetime of careful financial decisions is much more indicative of success than being in the 1% for a year or two. It requires hard work, planning, and life-long frugality. This is in line with OPs assertion that working hard and planning for the future is uncommon and will get you far. http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/top-1/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/07/news/economy/top-1/index.htm...
    - lisper 10y ago
      A six-figure income does not put you in the top 1%. $100k/yr doesn't even get you into the top 20%. To get into the top 1% you have to make more than $500k/yr. http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/35049/mailbag-how-to-know-if-youre-rich http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/35049/mailbag-how-...
      - classybull 10y ago
        You're comparing two different metrics. Your source talks about household income, which is generally a measure of two primary incomes. You're comparing a single income to two incomes. whatsmypercent.com utilizes some good datasets to build out income percentiles. They suggest that $100k/year puts in the the 96% percentile. The 80% percentile starts around $42k/year. That being said, it is kind of a long tail situation, due to the effects of wealth inequality in this country. The 99% percentile starts at $193k/year.
- antisthenes 10y ago
  Ah, yes. If someone challenges the luck/grit dogma, throw the just world fallacy at it method.
therealdrag0 10y ago
"only in a world where only 1% of people work hard." -- AND choose the steps that are reproducible. I'm very smart, but I got an English Degree thinking I would be a writer taught english for pennies and almost went into philosophy before thinking I didn't want to be poor and went into development (already had taught myself programming in highschool). Not all paths that can be worked hard on produce wealth.

Rainymood 10y ago

>replicable manner. Study hard in HS -> Go to a good college -> Work your ass off for a good GPA -> go do a MBA/JD/MD/CS degree at an elite university -> get a six figure job and work your ass off. Not much luck involved there. >Not much luck involved there. Except being born in a white rich household with access to food, water, shelter, support system, good high school so you can go to an elite college. Do you think everyone born in Africa/China (just to name a few countries) have the option to take this route you describe?

whack 10y ago
I was making my comment in the context of developed nations where everyone has access to public schooling and college loans/financial-aid. It certainly doesn't apply to those in developing nations.