3 ms·

The user pays money in the hope of winning more back - it's gambling however you slice it. There is no information of any value here outside the context of the

The user pays money in the hope of winning more back - it's gambling however you slice it. There is no information of any value here outside the context of the site itself - unless you're claiming that your audience is a representative sample of the UK population?

eru 17y ago
That's not how prediction markets work. People aren't supposed to bet on whom they want to win. People are supposed to be searching a profit, that is find differences between the odds given in the current market and what they perceive as the true odds. People who do this consistently over time, tend to accumulate more money, and thus accrue more influence as time goes on. Also people who bet foolishly, e.g. just bet on who they like to see winning, create opportunities for other people to make money of their back.
anamax 17y ago
> The user pays money in the hope of winning more back - it's gambling however you slice it. That describes investment as well.
- danparsonson 17y ago
  Indeed - what's your point? Since both generally involve using guesswork (however educated) in an attempt to increase wealth, it seems reasonable to draw a parallel between the two.
  - eru 17y ago
    Depends on what you define as gambling. E.g. playing crap or betting on fair coin-flips is decidedly different from prediction markets or investment; because everyone agrees on the probabilities already, so there's no information aggregation and discovery.
    - danparsonson 17y ago
      It's the same basic process though isn't it? Making a bet on the basis of a guess about the future. Of course, it may be a very well educated guess or just a shot in the dark, but unless you can actually correctly predict the future, there is always some element of uncertainty involved.
      - eru 17y ago
        It's not about the uncertainty. But about aggregating information about that uncertainty through prices (in markets) or using that information to up your chances in, say, Poker. In `pure' gambling, like betting on a coin flip, everyone already has all information. So it's less interesting, and warrants a different category of game.
kjhgfdghjk 17y ago
It's by far the most accurate prediction of the result. People putting their money where their mouth is - generally a lot more reliable than somebody with a clipboard in a shopping center asking voters, or the opinions of a TV reporter.
- foldr 17y ago
  >It's by far the most accurate prediction of the result. Do you have any evidence for this? E.g. comparisons of polling vs betting predictions from previous elections.

eru 17y ago

That's not how prediction markets work. People aren't supposed to bet on whom they want to win. People are supposed to be searching a profit, that is find differences between the odds given in the current market and what they perceive as the true odds. People who do this consistently over time, tend to accumulate more money, and thus accrue more influence as time goes on. Also people who bet foolishly, e.g. just bet on who they like to see winning, create opportunities for other people to make money of their back.

anamax 17y ago

> The user pays money in the hope of winning more back - it's gambling however you slice it. That describes investment as well.

danparsonson 17y ago
Indeed - what's your point? Since both generally involve using guesswork (however educated) in an attempt to increase wealth, it seems reasonable to draw a parallel between the two.
- eru 17y ago
  Depends on what you define as gambling. E.g. playing crap or betting on fair coin-flips is decidedly different from prediction markets or investment; because everyone agrees on the probabilities already, so there's no information aggregation and discovery.
  - danparsonson 17y ago
    It's the same basic process though isn't it? Making a bet on the basis of a guess about the future. Of course, it may be a very well educated guess or just a shot in the dark, but unless you can actually correctly predict the future, there is always some element of uncertainty involved.
    - eru 17y ago
      It's not about the uncertainty. But about aggregating information about that uncertainty through prices (in markets) or using that information to up your chances in, say, Poker. In `pure' gambling, like betting on a coin flip, everyone already has all information. So it's less interesting, and warrants a different category of game.

kjhgfdghjk 17y ago

It's by far the most accurate prediction of the result. People putting their money where their mouth is - generally a lot more reliable than somebody with a clipboard in a shopping center asking voters, or the opinions of a TV reporter.

foldr 17y ago
>It's by far the most accurate prediction of the result. Do you have any evidence for this? E.g. comparisons of polling vs betting predictions from previous elections.