6 ms·

Twitter comparisons aside (what's the point?), anyone know what could be causing the surge in pricing for Bitcoin? It was off my radar for a while and all of a

by kin 10y ago

Twitter comparisons aside (what's the point?), anyone know what could be causing the surge in pricing for Bitcoin? It was off my radar for a while and all of a sudden it's at $800+.

imaginenore 10y ago
It's a Christmas miracle.
21 10y ago
Could be ransomware. The bitcoin killer app :) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/22/city-banks-plan-to-hoard-bitcoins-to-help-them-pay-cyber-ransoms https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/22/city-bank...
- eterm 10y ago
  I'm not sure why you're being downvoted, ransomware infection rates lead bitcoin prices closely.
- cperciva 10y ago
  Ransomware isn't the bitcoin killer app. The bitcoin killer app is assassination markets. ;-)
Kostchei 10y ago
2 points that I am aware of- attempts in India to rein in the "black" cash economy- which is perhaps 60% of GDP and currently untaxed- so notes taken out of circulation etc. And global jitters about banking and stability in general- I'd blame Trump but he may be a symptom, not a cause.
- gnipgnip 10y ago
  Unsolicited advice: alt.right religion does not reflect reality.
modeless 10y ago
Speculation is that it's a combination of Chinese investors looking to get out of the yuan and lower supply caused by the recent halving of the mining/inflation rate. Another possible factor is the upcoming SEC decision about the COIN ETF, on Jan. 10. A Bitcoin ETF could unlock pent-up demand and drive the price to new highs, the same way it did for gold. However, a delay seems much more likely than approval on Jan. 10.
- imaginenore 10y ago
  Also Indian, Venezuelan, Argentinian citizens - their currency is not doing well at all.
  - modeless 10y ago
    All true but the volume right now is too low for those to affect the price this much.
    - ionwake 10y ago
      What do you reckon it is?
      - modeless 10y ago
        To me the fact that Chinese exchanges are consistently $20 higher indicates that Chinese buying is probably driving the price. But you should always be skeptical when someone tells you a reason for price movements, because the truth is the only people who really know are the people buying and selling.
        csomar 10y ago
        The Chinese premium means nothing since there is capital controls. Bitcoin has a premium where there is capital controls. It's not related to the volume or demand of BTC itself.
davidgerard 10y ago
Over 95% of Bitcoin trade is speculation on Chinese exchanges; the rest is mostly drugs and then ransomware. The "market cap" of Bitcoin is a meaningless concept - trading is thin enough there's no way you could ever realise the supposed value of a large holding. Single trades can send the price up or down $30.
- followaway 10y ago
  Do you have any sources on the 95% claim? I know a recent Quartz article entitled "Bitcoin doesn't care what Silicon Valley thinks" stated a similar premise. Also, I saw you are writing a dismissive book on bitcoin where you refer to the motives behind it as those of cranks promoting libertarian pseudoeconominics. I was hoping for a more objective analysis aside from, "you're crazy if you support bitcoin."
- gst 10y ago
  > The "market cap" of Bitcoin is a meaningless concept - trading is thin enough there's no way you could ever realise the supposed value of a large holding. Single trades can send the price up or down $30. I just checked the charts on Kraken which according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets has about 5.4% of the trading volume: https://www.kraken.com/charts https://www.kraken.com/charts. If you want to reduce the price by 30 Euros you'd have to sell coins worth a total of 775k Euros at once (using EUR instead of USD for the comparison, as Kraken's USD volume is only a small fraction of the EUR volume). Also, according to https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/ the total BTC trading volume over the last 24h was $187M. However, this number only includes exchanges that charge fees (as the volume in exchanges that don't charge fees could be artificially inflated), and thereby excludes almost all of the large Chinese exchanges. The top 3 Chinese exchanges all report volumes of over 3 billion USD during the past 24 hours. So yes - single trades could definitely bring the price up or down by $30. But in practice most of the traders probably won't be affected by this.
  - ajamesm 10y ago
    Those trades are probably black market profits, primarily drugs. Or oligarchs, whose circles haven't been penetrated by journalists. (Or, what, overstock.com?) I imagine Bitcoin would be a lot more popular if it weren't for the moral hazard of providing fungible currency for people trafficking in 9mms and ecstasy.
aqsheehy 10y ago
Has been rising last two years, only on your radar now because of the ath
mrb 10y ago
"all of a sudden"?! You have not been paying attention since August 2015 then :) Bitcoin has been on a constant and steady rise for the last 1.5 years, due to increased adoption. No single event explain it. Bitcoin is just getting more and more used, here are more wallets, more Bitcoin companies, more transactions, more remittance done in Bitcoin, etc. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60zigWeeklyzczsg2015-08-15zeg2016-12-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60zigWeeklyzczsg20...
- sanswork 10y ago
  Are you seeing more adoption in any number that isn't a vanity metric(number of wallets/accounts) or intentionally vague "revenue is up! (from where to where?)". Traffic across all the bitcoin social groups/forums is still dropping month over month. No vendor outside the darknet is seeing growth in sales(or really any sales). Even the remittance people are simultaneously claiming they are having fantastic success while wondering why they aren't having fantastic success(see coindesk article on it. 4 years later and still we don't have any of the major companies reporting MAU.
  - timeal 10y ago
    Number of trans/block has been very smoothly increasing for many years now - single best indicator of increasing adoption: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?days...
    - sanswork 10y ago
      It's increasing but still really low and definitely possible it's increased use within the population instead of increased adoption. That's also like 2.5/second at its peak and even lower when you drop chain transactions.
      - timeal 10y ago
        I am not sure there is any utility in differentiating between these 2 types of increased use. Either way it's increased use, and either way it's good for Bitcoin. Nowadays the peak trans rate is in fact 3.7/second [2200 trans/block]. The average is 2.8/second [1700 trans/block] - https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=30days https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?time... Even when you drop chain trans, the trans rate has been smoothly increasing over many years - https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai...
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

by kin 10y ago

Twitter comparisons aside (what's the point?), anyone know what could be causing the surge in pricing for Bitcoin? It was off my radar for a while and all of a sudden it's at $800+.

imaginenore 10y ago

It's a Christmas miracle.

21 10y ago

Could be ransomware. The bitcoin killer app :) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/22/city-banks-plan-to-hoard-bitcoins-to-help-them-pay-cyber-ransoms https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/22/city-bank...

eterm 10y ago
I'm not sure why you're being downvoted, ransomware infection rates lead bitcoin prices closely.
cperciva 10y ago
Ransomware isn't the bitcoin killer app. The bitcoin killer app is assassination markets. ;-)

Kostchei 10y ago

2 points that I am aware of- attempts in India to rein in the "black" cash economy- which is perhaps 60% of GDP and currently untaxed- so notes taken out of circulation etc. And global jitters about banking and stability in general- I'd blame Trump but he may be a symptom, not a cause.

gnipgnip 10y ago
Unsolicited advice: alt.right religion does not reflect reality.

modeless 10y ago

Speculation is that it's a combination of Chinese investors looking to get out of the yuan and lower supply caused by the recent halving of the mining/inflation rate. Another possible factor is the upcoming SEC decision about the COIN ETF, on Jan. 10. A Bitcoin ETF could unlock pent-up demand and drive the price to new highs, the same way it did for gold. However, a delay seems much more likely than approval on Jan. 10.

imaginenore 10y ago
Also Indian, Venezuelan, Argentinian citizens - their currency is not doing well at all.
- modeless 10y ago
  All true but the volume right now is too low for those to affect the price this much.
  - ionwake 10y ago
    What do you reckon it is?
    - modeless 10y ago
      To me the fact that Chinese exchanges are consistently $20 higher indicates that Chinese buying is probably driving the price. But you should always be skeptical when someone tells you a reason for price movements, because the truth is the only people who really know are the people buying and selling.
      - csomar 10y ago
        The Chinese premium means nothing since there is capital controls. Bitcoin has a premium where there is capital controls. It's not related to the volume or demand of BTC itself.

davidgerard 10y ago

Over 95% of Bitcoin trade is speculation on Chinese exchanges; the rest is mostly drugs and then ransomware. The "market cap" of Bitcoin is a meaningless concept - trading is thin enough there's no way you could ever realise the supposed value of a large holding. Single trades can send the price up or down $30.

followaway 10y ago
Do you have any sources on the 95% claim? I know a recent Quartz article entitled "Bitcoin doesn't care what Silicon Valley thinks" stated a similar premise. Also, I saw you are writing a dismissive book on bitcoin where you refer to the motives behind it as those of cranks promoting libertarian pseudoeconominics. I was hoping for a more objective analysis aside from, "you're crazy if you support bitcoin."
gst 10y ago
> The "market cap" of Bitcoin is a meaningless concept - trading is thin enough there's no way you could ever realise the supposed value of a large holding. Single trades can send the price up or down $30. I just checked the charts on Kraken which according to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets has about 5.4% of the trading volume: https://www.kraken.com/charts https://www.kraken.com/charts. If you want to reduce the price by 30 Euros you'd have to sell coins worth a total of 775k Euros at once (using EUR instead of USD for the comparison, as Kraken's USD volume is only a small fraction of the EUR volume). Also, according to https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/ the total BTC trading volume over the last 24h was $187M. However, this number only includes exchanges that charge fees (as the volume in exchanges that don't charge fees could be artificially inflated), and thereby excludes almost all of the large Chinese exchanges. The top 3 Chinese exchanges all report volumes of over 3 billion USD during the past 24 hours. So yes - single trades could definitely bring the price up or down by $30. But in practice most of the traders probably won't be affected by this.
- ajamesm 10y ago
  Those trades are probably black market profits, primarily drugs. Or oligarchs, whose circles haven't been penetrated by journalists. (Or, what, overstock.com?) I imagine Bitcoin would be a lot more popular if it weren't for the moral hazard of providing fungible currency for people trafficking in 9mms and ecstasy.

aqsheehy 10y ago

Has been rising last two years, only on your radar now because of the ath

mrb 10y ago

"all of a sudden"?! You have not been paying attention since August 2015 then :) Bitcoin has been on a constant and steady rise for the last 1.5 years, due to increased adoption. No single event explain it. Bitcoin is just getting more and more used, here are more wallets, more Bitcoin companies, more transactions, more remittance done in Bitcoin, etc. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60zigWeeklyzczsg2015-08-15zeg2016-12-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60zigWeeklyzczsg20...

sanswork 10y ago
Are you seeing more adoption in any number that isn't a vanity metric(number of wallets/accounts) or intentionally vague "revenue is up! (from where to where?)". Traffic across all the bitcoin social groups/forums is still dropping month over month. No vendor outside the darknet is seeing growth in sales(or really any sales). Even the remittance people are simultaneously claiming they are having fantastic success while wondering why they aren't having fantastic success(see coindesk article on it. 4 years later and still we don't have any of the major companies reporting MAU.
- timeal 10y ago
  Number of trans/block has been very smoothly increasing for many years now - single best indicator of increasing adoption: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?days...
  - sanswork 10y ago
    It's increasing but still really low and definitely possible it's increased use within the population instead of increased adoption. That's also like 2.5/second at its peak and even lower when you drop chain transactions.
    - timeal 10y ago
      I am not sure there is any utility in differentiating between these 2 types of increased use. Either way it's increased use, and either way it's good for Bitcoin. Nowadays the peak trans rate is in fact 3.7/second [2200 trans/block]. The average is 2.8/second [1700 trans/block] - https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=30days https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?time... Even when you drop chain trans, the trans rate has been smoothly increasing over many years - https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?daysAverageString=7&timespan=all https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai...

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]