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>If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made red

>If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary. >We do have an increasing number of distinct jobs that each take many years of study. Can you name say, three or four of these jobs which require four solid years of study to master and have been automated away completely in the last 20 years? Because this sounds kinda like bullshit to me.

tossacct339 10y ago
The if at the beginning should give away that this isn't hard data from looking at our current reality, and more a thought experiment as we trend into a future run by AI. Things like accounting though; a friend of mine got his CPA. Basically required to go through two years of college (he had a bachelors already, was more of a top up in relevant areas), then prep for a shit ton of CPA testing, work under some CPAs for at least a year, before getting the cert. And any legit accounting firm here expects that. That's not a trivial amount of effort. But now Turbo Tax is walking me through taxes with a few clicks. Not completely AI managed personal finance, but in 10 years? What does my 32 year old friend do at 42? Become a programmer? How long will that take him with no prior knowledge?
- crdoconnor 10y ago
  Most of the accountants I know seem to spend a their time managing flows of data, forecasting, interpreting legislation & making judgement calls on tax matters. Things that would require "strong AI" that isn't anywhere to be seen currently. All the automation appears to have done (when it works, which it often doesn't) is made the job less tedious than it was 10-20 years ago. Automation CLEARLY hasn't reduced the demand for accountants, just the kind of skills they have, since the numbers have been going up along with inflation: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/2016/03/Why+%26+How/accountant-job-outlook.gif https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/20... I could see demand for accountants dry if up tax legislation suddenly became radically simpler but that doesn't seem likely currently. If anything it's growing more complex.
  - smallnamespace 10y ago
    Those sound like more senior accounting positions, which are least vulnerable to automation. The problem is at the bottom end of the ladder. As software gets better, the entry-level positions will disappear. There will be no longer be a viable path from fresh CPA graduate to 'making judgement calls on tax matters', and you'll have a bunch of people who paid for a useless degree.
Clubber 10y ago
I'll give it a whack: Management of local newspapers. Management of record stores. Management of video rental stores. Certain facets of network administration. Certain facets of software development. Preparing legal documents. Scientific lab work. Accounting. Investment brokers. Tax preparation. Marketing. Payroll. Basically any business app is only worth something because it makes workers more efficient through automation. There are a lot of business apps that 4 year folks use. Also, you are missing the point when you require "automated away completely." It's not binary. If getting something done used to require 100 people and now it requires 10, multiply that against 20,000 companies and you have a huge hole. The risk of automation isn't completely removing people, it's requiring less people across many career paths.

tossacct339 10y ago

The if at the beginning should give away that this isn't hard data from looking at our current reality, and more a thought experiment as we trend into a future run by AI. Things like accounting though; a friend of mine got his CPA. Basically required to go through two years of college (he had a bachelors already, was more of a top up in relevant areas), then prep for a shit ton of CPA testing, work under some CPAs for at least a year, before getting the cert. And any legit accounting firm here expects that. That's not a trivial amount of effort. But now Turbo Tax is walking me through taxes with a few clicks. Not completely AI managed personal finance, but in 10 years? What does my 32 year old friend do at 42? Become a programmer? How long will that take him with no prior knowledge?

crdoconnor 10y ago
Most of the accountants I know seem to spend a their time managing flows of data, forecasting, interpreting legislation & making judgement calls on tax matters. Things that would require "strong AI" that isn't anywhere to be seen currently. All the automation appears to have done (when it works, which it often doesn't) is made the job less tedious than it was 10-20 years ago. Automation CLEARLY hasn't reduced the demand for accountants, just the kind of skills they have, since the numbers have been going up along with inflation: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/2016/03/Why+%26+How/accountant-job-outlook.gif https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/20... I could see demand for accountants dry if up tax legislation suddenly became radically simpler but that doesn't seem likely currently. If anything it's growing more complex.
- smallnamespace 10y ago
  Those sound like more senior accounting positions, which are least vulnerable to automation. The problem is at the bottom end of the ladder. As software gets better, the entry-level positions will disappear. There will be no longer be a viable path from fresh CPA graduate to 'making judgement calls on tax matters', and you'll have a bunch of people who paid for a useless degree.

Clubber 10y ago

I'll give it a whack: Management of local newspapers. Management of record stores. Management of video rental stores. Certain facets of network administration. Certain facets of software development. Preparing legal documents. Scientific lab work. Accounting. Investment brokers. Tax preparation. Marketing. Payroll. Basically any business app is only worth something because it makes workers more efficient through automation. There are a lot of business apps that 4 year folks use. Also, you are missing the point when you require "automated away completely." It's not binary. If getting something done used to require 100 people and now it requires 10, multiply that against 20,000 companies and you have a huge hole. The risk of automation isn't completely removing people, it's requiring less people across many career paths.