4 ms·

Some parts are good points, but some parts are strawman arguments. If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized

Some parts are good points, but some parts are strawman arguments. If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary. We do have an increasing number of distinct jobs that each take many years of study. So far, I have felt confident in my ability to evolve in this job sector because I am good at logic, which most of programming relates to. But if the logic aspect of the job was trivialized to the point that anyone could tell a machine what it must do, I might have to move towards a new field, and learn to solve Schrödinger's equations and be deeply knowledgeable about quantum mechanics to be able to program some future, more complex machine. And yet even that is easier than having to go from driving trucks to managing logistics.

apsec112 10y ago
"If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary." That is completely true, but it's also something that applies to every other means of labor automation (going back to the 18th century or earlier), so it's nothing we haven't seen before.
- makomk 10y ago
  Not really. Up until I think at least the 1970s, on-the-job training and apprenticeships were a lot more common. Both the expectation that employees will already have the required skills and expertise and across-the-board requirements for university qualifications are relatively new changes.
  - setr 10y ago
    Isn't that just another example of the author's point? Automation hasn't changed, the world around it has
  - SilasX 10y ago
    Jobs today don't realistically require 4 years of post high school education, even if employers say they do. They're just using it as a filter. If you can find a way to get workers to send a true signal of qualification without blowing four years of their lives, and can pocket even a sliver of the savings, then you will be very very rich.
    - carry_bit 10y ago
      Very very rich, assuming that method is legal and socially acceptable.
crdoconnor 10y ago
>If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary. >We do have an increasing number of distinct jobs that each take many years of study. Can you name say, three or four of these jobs which require four solid years of study to master and have been automated away completely in the last 20 years? Because this sounds kinda like bullshit to me.
- tossacct339 10y ago
  The if at the beginning should give away that this isn't hard data from looking at our current reality, and more a thought experiment as we trend into a future run by AI. Things like accounting though; a friend of mine got his CPA. Basically required to go through two years of college (he had a bachelors already, was more of a top up in relevant areas), then prep for a shit ton of CPA testing, work under some CPAs for at least a year, before getting the cert. And any legit accounting firm here expects that. That's not a trivial amount of effort. But now Turbo Tax is walking me through taxes with a few clicks. Not completely AI managed personal finance, but in 10 years? What does my 32 year old friend do at 42? Become a programmer? How long will that take him with no prior knowledge?
  - crdoconnor 10y ago
    Most of the accountants I know seem to spend a their time managing flows of data, forecasting, interpreting legislation & making judgement calls on tax matters. Things that would require "strong AI" that isn't anywhere to be seen currently. All the automation appears to have done (when it works, which it often doesn't) is made the job less tedious than it was 10-20 years ago. Automation CLEARLY hasn't reduced the demand for accountants, just the kind of skills they have, since the numbers have been going up along with inflation: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/2016/03/Why+%26+How/accountant-job-outlook.gif https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/20... I could see demand for accountants dry if up tax legislation suddenly became radically simpler but that doesn't seem likely currently. If anything it's growing more complex.

apsec112 10y ago

"If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary." That is completely true, but it's also something that applies to every other means of labor automation (going back to the 18th century or earlier), so it's nothing we haven't seen before.

makomk 10y ago
Not really. Up until I think at least the 1970s, on-the-job training and apprenticeships were a lot more common. Both the expectation that employees will already have the required skills and expertise and across-the-board requirements for university qualifications are relatively new changes.
- setr 10y ago
  Isn't that just another example of the author's point? Automation hasn't changed, the world around it has
- SilasX 10y ago
  Jobs today don't realistically require 4 years of post high school education, even if employers say they do. They're just using it as a filter. If you can find a way to get workers to send a true signal of qualification without blowing four years of their lives, and can pocket even a sliver of the savings, then you will be very very rich.
  - carry_bit 10y ago
    Very very rich, assuming that method is legal and socially acceptable.

crdoconnor 10y ago

>If all jobs require four years of expertise to apply for, every time one job gets mechanized, while employers switch over to automation, the employees made redundant would need to sustain themselves while studying to gain the expertise required for a job in a different field at the same salary. >We do have an increasing number of distinct jobs that each take many years of study. Can you name say, three or four of these jobs which require four solid years of study to master and have been automated away completely in the last 20 years? Because this sounds kinda like bullshit to me.

tossacct339 10y ago
The if at the beginning should give away that this isn't hard data from looking at our current reality, and more a thought experiment as we trend into a future run by AI. Things like accounting though; a friend of mine got his CPA. Basically required to go through two years of college (he had a bachelors already, was more of a top up in relevant areas), then prep for a shit ton of CPA testing, work under some CPAs for at least a year, before getting the cert. And any legit accounting firm here expects that. That's not a trivial amount of effort. But now Turbo Tax is walking me through taxes with a few clicks. Not completely AI managed personal finance, but in 10 years? What does my 32 year old friend do at 42? Become a programmer? How long will that take him with no prior knowledge?
- crdoconnor 10y ago
  Most of the accountants I know seem to spend a their time managing flows of data, forecasting, interpreting legislation & making judgement calls on tax matters. Things that would require "strong AI" that isn't anywhere to be seen currently. All the automation appears to have done (when it works, which it often doesn't) is made the job less tedious than it was 10-20 years ago. Automation CLEARLY hasn't reduced the demand for accountants, just the kind of skills they have, since the numbers have been going up along with inflation: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/2016/03/Why+%26+How/accountant-job-outlook.gif https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/oca/media/wysiwyg/20... I could see demand for accountants dry if up tax legislation suddenly became radically simpler but that doesn't seem likely currently. If anything it's growing more complex.