4 ms·

By the time the young adults of today are too old to work, they will have long since inherited their parent's house. I would bet in 25 years when 10,000 baby b

By the time the young adults of today are too old to work, they will have long since inherited their parent's house. I would bet in 25 years when 10,000 baby boomers are dying every day, housing prices will be in free fall. So many of today's young adults will pay little, if anything, for the house they retire in.

ryandrake 10y ago
Thanks to reverse mortgages, I doubt there will be a massive housing transfer when the boomers die out. Boomers in general will outlive their retirement savings and all that will be left is their home equity. We'll see tons of bank-owned homes but today's young adults still won't be able to afford them.
- shostack 10y ago
  And I wonder if they will be sold by banks or merely rented out and packaged as collateralized investments.
  - afarrell 10y ago
    They will probably be sold to rental management companies (of which there will be a whole bunch) or like liquid-property-investment startups like https://bricklane.com/ https://bricklane.com/
    - resolaibohp 10y ago
      This will be a bigger problem in the near future. I keep seeing advertisements for property investments along the lines of the company you linked. Everyone thinks that housing is an investment and a way to make money. This has and will continue to drive up prices.
      - afarrell 10y ago
        Why would it drive up rents? If people invest in properties to then let/rent them out, then there will be more homes on the rental market. The thing that will prevent this is if there are laws preventing new construction? The thing that prevents new construction in many areas is laws designed to "preserve the character of the neighborhood". Homeowners/investors have an incentive to push for these laws to keep housing prices high. However, if they actually own a diversified asset that can grow with new construction by adding new properties, then that incentive is reduced.
astronautjones 10y ago
Speaking as a younger person, I have and will have no interest in living in a rural suburb with no jobs. I'll have to sell, and when that time comes it won't be for much. The reverse white flight into cities is going to wreak havoc on this country.
- lucker 10y ago
  Out of curiosity — how would you feel about a rural suburb if you could work remotely from it and make the same money that you could make in a big city? What other things would you need the rural suburb to provide if employment wasn't an issue?
  - eropple 10y ago
    For me, it would need to not be rural or a suburb to provide what I desire out of life. I want to be near things. There is a life to urban communities that does not exist in rural or suburban places (and I grew up in both) that I don't think I would want to live without. Being in places where it's a half-mile walk to things I want to do is an unmitigated good for me and there is nothing a suburb or rural area can do to replace that. Remote work from home, where you are ensconced in your isolation box, is gross, too; as a consultant, I have a home office and I spend most of my time out of it. (Mind, I have considered buying something in a rural area--but that's effectively a retreat, not a home. Homes are a by-and-large a pipe dream for people who are under 30 right now unless they want crushing commutes or nothingvilles.)
    - lucker 10y ago
      I have the opposite dream right now: I've spent almost my entire life in large cities and now that I'm in my thirties, finally have a career going, and am no longer obsessed with my sex life, I'm longing to move out of the city and somewhere a bit more suburban. I don't want kids or a wife — I just want space to be able to walk around half naked if I want to, sing at 4 in the morning if I feel like it, and indulge my own weird rhythms. I'm a software developer, and my company actually allows me to work remotely, so I'm seriously considering making the move. I seem to become more productive when I have more space, so even from a productivity standpoint the idea probably makes sense. I actually love going on long walks, so the thought of walking a half hour to buy groceries if I don't buy a car seems ok. I've spent the last decade or so in San Francisco, and none of the local scenes really attract me. There used to be some cool artists around, but a lot of them got priced out. Maybe some other city has a more thriving cultural life, but San Francisco's isn't doing anything for me. I just have to figure out where to move. Well, I hope that we both manage to figure out a way of life that is good for us.
distances 10y ago
Perhaps for a single kid whose parents live in a reasonably sized city. Multiple siblings / rural house / rented city apartment? Not so much.

ryandrake 10y ago

Thanks to reverse mortgages, I doubt there will be a massive housing transfer when the boomers die out. Boomers in general will outlive their retirement savings and all that will be left is their home equity. We'll see tons of bank-owned homes but today's young adults still won't be able to afford them.

shostack 10y ago
And I wonder if they will be sold by banks or merely rented out and packaged as collateralized investments.
- afarrell 10y ago
  They will probably be sold to rental management companies (of which there will be a whole bunch) or like liquid-property-investment startups like https://bricklane.com/ https://bricklane.com/
  - resolaibohp 10y ago
    This will be a bigger problem in the near future. I keep seeing advertisements for property investments along the lines of the company you linked. Everyone thinks that housing is an investment and a way to make money. This has and will continue to drive up prices.
    - afarrell 10y ago
      Why would it drive up rents? If people invest in properties to then let/rent them out, then there will be more homes on the rental market. The thing that will prevent this is if there are laws preventing new construction? The thing that prevents new construction in many areas is laws designed to "preserve the character of the neighborhood". Homeowners/investors have an incentive to push for these laws to keep housing prices high. However, if they actually own a diversified asset that can grow with new construction by adding new properties, then that incentive is reduced.

astronautjones 10y ago

Speaking as a younger person, I have and will have no interest in living in a rural suburb with no jobs. I'll have to sell, and when that time comes it won't be for much. The reverse white flight into cities is going to wreak havoc on this country.

lucker 10y ago
Out of curiosity — how would you feel about a rural suburb if you could work remotely from it and make the same money that you could make in a big city? What other things would you need the rural suburb to provide if employment wasn't an issue?
- eropple 10y ago
  For me, it would need to not be rural or a suburb to provide what I desire out of life. I want to be near things. There is a life to urban communities that does not exist in rural or suburban places (and I grew up in both) that I don't think I would want to live without. Being in places where it's a half-mile walk to things I want to do is an unmitigated good for me and there is nothing a suburb or rural area can do to replace that. Remote work from home, where you are ensconced in your isolation box, is gross, too; as a consultant, I have a home office and I spend most of my time out of it. (Mind, I have considered buying something in a rural area--but that's effectively a retreat, not a home. Homes are a by-and-large a pipe dream for people who are under 30 right now unless they want crushing commutes or nothingvilles.)
  - lucker 10y ago
    I have the opposite dream right now: I've spent almost my entire life in large cities and now that I'm in my thirties, finally have a career going, and am no longer obsessed with my sex life, I'm longing to move out of the city and somewhere a bit more suburban. I don't want kids or a wife — I just want space to be able to walk around half naked if I want to, sing at 4 in the morning if I feel like it, and indulge my own weird rhythms. I'm a software developer, and my company actually allows me to work remotely, so I'm seriously considering making the move. I seem to become more productive when I have more space, so even from a productivity standpoint the idea probably makes sense. I actually love going on long walks, so the thought of walking a half hour to buy groceries if I don't buy a car seems ok. I've spent the last decade or so in San Francisco, and none of the local scenes really attract me. There used to be some cool artists around, but a lot of them got priced out. Maybe some other city has a more thriving cultural life, but San Francisco's isn't doing anything for me. I just have to figure out where to move. Well, I hope that we both manage to figure out a way of life that is good for us.

distances 10y ago

Perhaps for a single kid whose parents live in a reasonably sized city. Multiple siblings / rural house / rented city apartment? Not so much.