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> Alas, the programming, maintenance, re-programming, upgrading, not to mention construction of the robots still needs a small army of people. If automation do

> Alas, the programming, maintenance, re-programming, upgrading, not to mention construction of the robots still needs a small army of people. If automation doesn't result in absolutely massive savings on employment, it just won't happen. You're army of people is more like a small platoon -- the army being entirely displaced. But I think there is something to be said about automation allowing for creation to become more accessible. It might make entire categories of small-scale products designed by small teams possible in ways that were not possible before.

Animats 10y ago
Right. Kiva warehouse robots are a particularly striking example. Before Amazon bought Kiva, they gave out info about operating costs. All the little mobile robots are interchangeable, so if one fails, it's just sidelined. You have somebody on site to replace batteries and wheels; anything non-trivial goes back to the factory. The entire Kiva company, which was servicing about a dozen big Internet retailers before Amazon bought them, was 600 people. A single warehouse automated with Kiva loses at least half its staff.
usrusr 10y ago
There is an interesting precedent for small scale production through automation, and it already played out twenty years ago: the possibilities of CNC-machining aluminium parts created a huge amount of diversity of offerings in the market of mountain bike parts. At the height of this wave you would have been able to equip a whole club of riders with different brake designs in funky anodized colors. Very few of those manufacturers survived, because mass production methods involving casting and forging still had (and have, and will likely continue to have) an edge in price and performance. It's nice to see the premium required for low volume production shrink, but I doubt that it will ever disappear.

Animats 10y ago

Right. Kiva warehouse robots are a particularly striking example. Before Amazon bought Kiva, they gave out info about operating costs. All the little mobile robots are interchangeable, so if one fails, it's just sidelined. You have somebody on site to replace batteries and wheels; anything non-trivial goes back to the factory. The entire Kiva company, which was servicing about a dozen big Internet retailers before Amazon bought them, was 600 people. A single warehouse automated with Kiva loses at least half its staff.

usrusr 10y ago

There is an interesting precedent for small scale production through automation, and it already played out twenty years ago: the possibilities of CNC-machining aluminium parts created a huge amount of diversity of offerings in the market of mountain bike parts. At the height of this wave you would have been able to equip a whole club of riders with different brake designs in funky anodized colors. Very few of those manufacturers survived, because mass production methods involving casting and forging still had (and have, and will likely continue to have) an edge in price and performance. It's nice to see the premium required for low volume production shrink, but I doubt that it will ever disappear.