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> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? As software developers, it's literally our job

> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? As software developers, it's literally our jobs to put people out of work. My software is specifically designed reduce the need for increased labor as the company crows. In my industry, legal, entire departments (like night word processing) no longer exist. The fact is you cannot extrapolate from 100 years of human history and say everything will continue on. People just a few hundred years before that could not have predicted anything about modern employment.

snowwrestler 10y ago
> The fact is you cannot extrapolate from 100 years of human history and say everything will continue on It's a lot more than 100 years. The invention of the scientific process, the printing press, the popularization of steel and before that, bronze, heck even the invention of agriculture radically changed human societies by increasing individual productivity and enabling specialization. > People just a few hundred years before that could not have predicted anything about modern employment. Right, which is why it's silly for us to look at the technology we have today and say "welp, that's the end of human employment."
- aninhumer 10y ago
  >Right, which is why it's silly for us to look at the technology we have today and say "welp, that's the end of human employment." And why it's also silly to look at the past and say "meh it worked out last time, everything will be fine".
tmnvix 10y ago
> My software is specifically designed reduce the need for increased labor as the company crows. That is either a very amusing typo or your employers are not nice people.
cm2187 10y ago
It is your work to increase productivity. As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things. As you lower the cost of the product you manufacture or service you provide, you enable more people to afford it. That's how new industries are created. I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly skilled.
- barrkel 10y ago
  "I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly skilled." This is the same thing, FWIW. Opportunities to use skilled labour rely on the existence of skilled labour capable to fulfil it. The reason is that skilled labour shortages push up the price of labour, and that reduces the viability of businesses that use it as an input, and thus reduces the number of opportunities advertised.
- otakucode 10y ago
  Even better, as you have automated tools available, no one needs you any more. 'You' being the company, that is. As factories replaced craftsmen, and distribution chains replaced individual travelling merchants, I think there is a very good chance that the very structure of centralized companies with offices and on-staff employees will dissolve. You were replying to someone working in the legal field, for example. Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? An individual with the right knowledge and tools, that's all that's actually NEEDED. Much of economics centers around assuming that the market will eventually pare away inefficiencies and competition will strip away all but what is actually needed.
  - wvenable 10y ago
    There is a plan to start deploying Watson-like AIs in the legal field to automatically data mine for precedents and other legal resources. > Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? These exists because they are currently necessary (they are the "tools" you speak of) but they're a pure business cost and constantly under pressure to not exist. Computers have already reduced this back-end cost immensely. For example, lawyers these days all use dictation software rather than having a secretary write out shorthand. If all the tools can be automated, they eventually will.
    - otakucode 10y ago
2sk21 10y ago
Same here. I work on conversational systems and our explicit goal is to enable our customers to replace humans with our systems.

snowwrestler 10y ago

> The fact is you cannot extrapolate from 100 years of human history and say everything will continue on It's a lot more than 100 years. The invention of the scientific process, the printing press, the popularization of steel and before that, bronze, heck even the invention of agriculture radically changed human societies by increasing individual productivity and enabling specialization. > People just a few hundred years before that could not have predicted anything about modern employment. Right, which is why it's silly for us to look at the technology we have today and say "welp, that's the end of human employment."

aninhumer 10y ago
>Right, which is why it's silly for us to look at the technology we have today and say "welp, that's the end of human employment." And why it's also silly to look at the past and say "meh it worked out last time, everything will be fine".

tmnvix 10y ago

> My software is specifically designed reduce the need for increased labor as the company crows. That is either a very amusing typo or your employers are not nice people.

cm2187 10y ago

It is your work to increase productivity. As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things. As you lower the cost of the product you manufacture or service you provide, you enable more people to afford it. That's how new industries are created. I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly skilled.

barrkel 10y ago
"I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly skilled." This is the same thing, FWIW. Opportunities to use skilled labour rely on the existence of skilled labour capable to fulfil it. The reason is that skilled labour shortages push up the price of labour, and that reduces the viability of businesses that use it as an input, and thus reduces the number of opportunities advertised.
otakucode 10y ago
Even better, as you have automated tools available, no one needs you any more. 'You' being the company, that is. As factories replaced craftsmen, and distribution chains replaced individual travelling merchants, I think there is a very good chance that the very structure of centralized companies with offices and on-staff employees will dissolve. You were replying to someone working in the legal field, for example. Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? An individual with the right knowledge and tools, that's all that's actually NEEDED. Much of economics centers around assuming that the market will eventually pare away inefficiencies and competition will strip away all but what is actually needed.
- wvenable 10y ago
  There is a plan to start deploying Watson-like AIs in the legal field to automatically data mine for precedents and other legal resources. > Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? These exists because they are currently necessary (they are the "tools" you speak of) but they're a pure business cost and constantly under pressure to not exist. Computers have already reduced this back-end cost immensely. For example, lawyers these days all use dictation software rather than having a secretary write out shorthand. If all the tools can be automated, they eventually will.
  - otakucode 10y ago

2sk21 10y ago

Same here. I work on conversational systems and our explicit goal is to enable our customers to replace humans with our systems.