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I've never tried it, but take a look at the investment strategy called the trident portfolio. It claims a consistent 11% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for

I've never tried it, but take a look at the investment strategy called the trident portfolio. It claims a consistent 11% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for the last 40 years. Trident consists of the following: 1/3 VBR 1/3 GLD 1/3 TLT You'll have to rebalance to keep the ratios all 1/3 approximately once a year. There is a great response on Quora by Milos Baljozovic that I highly recommend related to the trident strategy. https://www.quora.com/I-won-the-lottery-and-have-5-million-in-the-bank-now-How-should-I-invest-to-live-off-the-interest https://www.quora.com/I-won-the-lottery-and-have-5-million-i... Honestly, you'll probably be ok just buying a standard ETF such as SPY or QQQ (more volatile), waiting 5 to 10 years without doing anything and cash it in.

cylinder 10y ago
Forty years is such a small window. I'm not convinced at all.
- nodesocket 10y ago
  Forty years is actually a decent timeframe in terms of capturing the market's cyclical nature. Do you have investing experience?
  - cylinder 10y ago
    Not for the larger cycle IMO. Last forty years almost perfectly covers the working (productive and consumptive) lives of the baby boomers and all that went with that. It also is the first and only 40 year period after Bretton Woods, so we can't conclude much about how gold will behave in the next forty year period. And then there's the very unique 8 years and counting of ZIRP and QE which affects Treasuries. Not just ZIRP but rates generally have declined immensely since the 70s, 80s and 90s overall which favors Treasures as well as the rest of the portfolio. I'm not sure US small caps will be as competitive going forward either -- are we getting the high growth companies on the stock exchange as small caps anymore? Maybe they're all being bought by large caps, staying private until they're large caps themselves, or just not competitive in a US economy that seems to be dominated by large multinationals with all sorts of advantages. There was also a tremendous amount of deficit spending throughout this period which has contributed much of the growth and it's arguable whether that can continue in kind. Also, maybe I missed this but I didn't see any mention of dividends in that post. Is the 11% CAGR including dividends paid out and reinvested? Unfortunately due to the lack of floating gold price before this 40-year period (conveniently) we can't compare to the prior forty years before that. I don't want to be too critical; it's interesting. I do believe small caps are better for a young person to invest in as they have higher risk tolerance, but I'm concerned about the quality of small caps we're seeing on US public markets these days.

cylinder 10y ago

Forty years is such a small window. I'm not convinced at all.

nodesocket 10y ago
Forty years is actually a decent timeframe in terms of capturing the market's cyclical nature. Do you have investing experience?
- cylinder 10y ago
  Not for the larger cycle IMO. Last forty years almost perfectly covers the working (productive and consumptive) lives of the baby boomers and all that went with that. It also is the first and only 40 year period after Bretton Woods, so we can't conclude much about how gold will behave in the next forty year period. And then there's the very unique 8 years and counting of ZIRP and QE which affects Treasuries. Not just ZIRP but rates generally have declined immensely since the 70s, 80s and 90s overall which favors Treasures as well as the rest of the portfolio. I'm not sure US small caps will be as competitive going forward either -- are we getting the high growth companies on the stock exchange as small caps anymore? Maybe they're all being bought by large caps, staying private until they're large caps themselves, or just not competitive in a US economy that seems to be dominated by large multinationals with all sorts of advantages. There was also a tremendous amount of deficit spending throughout this period which has contributed much of the growth and it's arguable whether that can continue in kind. Also, maybe I missed this but I didn't see any mention of dividends in that post. Is the 11% CAGR including dividends paid out and reinvested? Unfortunately due to the lack of floating gold price before this 40-year period (conveniently) we can't compare to the prior forty years before that. I don't want to be too critical; it's interesting. I do believe small caps are better for a young person to invest in as they have higher risk tolerance, but I'm concerned about the quality of small caps we're seeing on US public markets these days.