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That's an utterly ridiculous comparison. Companies / stock prices are not a normal, random distribution like roulette results. There are masses of information

That's an utterly ridiculous comparison. Companies / stock prices are not a normal, random distribution like roulette results. There are masses of information available on companies / stock market. Assuming roulette wheel is fair, there is none other than 1/32 chance known.

deleted 10y ago
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function_seven 10y ago
Please tell me what ticker symbol I should buy today, that will rise in value over 10,000% over the next two decades. Nobody can. Over a 20 year timeline, it’s essentially the same as a roulette wheel.
- njharman 10y ago
  That is disingenuously retarded and trollish. You seriously can't fathom that knowing financials, track record, ceo, products, pending deals, etc. etc. gives you more information than random chance? How do you make any informed choice about anything at all then?
  - function_seven 10y ago
    I can fathom it, but not on a 20-year timeline. The market prices stocks with all the information available. It's not perfect obviously, but it's better than any other price-generation algorithm that lacks a crystal ball. I you happen to have a unique perspective that the rest of the market lacks, then you can invest in that stock and make a good return. But 20 years out, the hypothetical "I wish I had bought AAPL in 1996" is just as useless as the "I wish I had bet on green" comparison. In this scenario, it's an apt comparison. Anyone making an informed choice in 1996, knowing financials, track record, ceo, products, pending deals, etc. etc. would have stayed the hell away from AAPL
PacketPaul 10y ago
Actually a lot of people believe they are a random distribution. There is a great book "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet" which explains it. The basic idea is the market is efficient (the Efficient Market Theory) and all information about the stock is alreay priced into the stock. Picking a stock to beat the market average is basically a random chance.
- njharman 10y ago
  Sure, across all investments. Pro-tip don't invest in all investments. Real life markets are very clearly not perfectly efficient. Nor is stock price a perfect reflection of available information. Many/most/all? stock is prices on expectation i.e. guesses, not facts. Then there are all sorts of shenanigans like astroturfing and illegal manipulations/trading.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

function_seven 10y ago

Please tell me what ticker symbol I should buy today, that will rise in value over 10,000% over the next two decades. Nobody can. Over a 20 year timeline, it’s essentially the same as a roulette wheel.

njharman 10y ago
That is disingenuously retarded and trollish. You seriously can't fathom that knowing financials, track record, ceo, products, pending deals, etc. etc. gives you more information than random chance? How do you make any informed choice about anything at all then?
- function_seven 10y ago
  I can fathom it, but not on a 20-year timeline. The market prices stocks with all the information available. It's not perfect obviously, but it's better than any other price-generation algorithm that lacks a crystal ball. I you happen to have a unique perspective that the rest of the market lacks, then you can invest in that stock and make a good return. But 20 years out, the hypothetical "I wish I had bought AAPL in 1996" is just as useless as the "I wish I had bet on green" comparison. In this scenario, it's an apt comparison. Anyone making an informed choice in 1996, knowing financials, track record, ceo, products, pending deals, etc. etc. would have stayed the hell away from AAPL

PacketPaul 10y ago

Actually a lot of people believe they are a random distribution. There is a great book "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet" which explains it. The basic idea is the market is efficient (the Efficient Market Theory) and all information about the stock is alreay priced into the stock. Picking a stock to beat the market average is basically a random chance.

njharman 10y ago
Sure, across all investments. Pro-tip don't invest in all investments. Real life markets are very clearly not perfectly efficient. Nor is stock price a perfect reflection of available information. Many/most/all? stock is prices on expectation i.e. guesses, not facts. Then there are all sorts of shenanigans like astroturfing and illegal manipulations/trading.