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>Oil is on the way out Oil production and consumption is higher than ever and projected to keep increasing to 2030 (though I do not personally believe this).
by D_Alex 10y ago
>Oil is on the way out
Oil production and consumption is higher than ever and projected to keep increasing to 2030 (though I do not personally believe this).
The demand growth is driven by the transportation sector, particularly in the developing countries.
Despite the recent successes of electrical cars, auto fuel consumption is still rising, and the absolute growth in conventional auto sales is, incredibly, almost one hundred* times larger than growth in electric car sales (an extra 3.1 million conventional cars were sold worldwide in 2016 cf 2015).
And even though you could argue that we can see the beginning of the end for petrol powered cars, industries such as construction, mining and agriculture - not to mention air travel - are much harder to convert to electricity.
Sooo... I expect we will be reliant on oil for a while to come yet.
*edit: sorry that is probably wrong, according to some sources the electric vehicle market grew by almost 300,000 vehicles per year... although that depends just what is counted as "electric". In any case, electric cars have a huge gap to close just to arrest the climb in conventional vehicle sales.
- Roritharr 10y agoI think once India and China start selling cheap electric cars and electric trucks deliver an economic advantage to oil, we can safely say oil is on its way out. But not before that.
- superquest 10y agoDon't forget motorbikes!
- GFischer 10y agoChina is the #1 producer and buyer of electric cars. It's still 1/300th of all cars sold, so it's not mainstream, but the tremendous growth is there (see the graph on the first article). It's actually the U.S. that's lagging behind. http://www.wsj.com/articles/mind-the-shock-as-auto-investing-turns-electric-1481626699 http://www.wsj.com/articles/mind-the-shock-as-auto-investing... http://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2016/08/30/warren-buffett-backed-byd-rises-to-14-month-high-after-electric-car-sales-soar/#7d7da4525969 http://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2016/08/30/warre...
- tonyplee 10y agoKeep hearing about graphene base battery technology that is faster to charge, store more in less volume/weight from time to time for cell phone and car. Hope that will be true soon.
- czbond 10y agoA large reason that oil production is high, is that producers raised debt at a much higher price of oil. Now they're being severely squeezed, and have to produce much more oil (at ~ half the price) in order to service the debt. Tankers are sitting off the coast in the Middle East because there is no other place to put the oil. Also, the Cushing reserve is nearing capacity (which tells you it's being stored for a sale at hopefully a higher price).
- nine_k 10y agoI suspect that agriculture, with its well-defined fields, repetitive motions, and a healthy disregard to the exterior, would be easier to convert to electricity. If refueling a tractor is just removing one battery pack and loading another, it also saves time when the time is at a huge premium. Locally-generated solar electric power to charge the batteries is also easier in a farm environment, and makes direct financial sense. The same dismounted tractor batteries, when not in heavy use, e.g. during winter, can work as a "power wall" to supplement the solar power during dusk when days are shorter.
- saint_fiasco 10y ago>Locally-generated solar electric power to charge the batteries is also easier in a farm environment, and makes direct financial sense. Doesn't that run into the same problem as biofuels? In a farm, most places where you could put a solar panel are also places where you could be growing more food.
- nasmorn 10y agoNo because solar panels produce at least an order of magnitude more power per area than biofuels. Maybe even two
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- antisthenes 10y agoYou could put solar panels in the space between irrigation circles. It won't be enough for a utility solar power planet, but certainly will be to charge 1-2 tractors.
- nine_k 10y agoYou can't easily grow crops on your barns' rooftops. It's a great place for your solar panels, though.
- samatman 10y agoTo add to the sibling answers, crop rotation is a basic part of land management on farms. Solar panels could be rotated between fields, undercropped with shade-tolerant legumes.