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Okay, so you're saying we could do it if we had 22,200 GWh / day capacity, cause if we can charge it up every day, that's *365 = 8,120,000 GWh annual consumptio
by floatrock 10y ago
Okay, so you're saying we could do it if we had 22,200 GWh / day capacity, cause if we can charge it up every day, that's *365 = 8,120,000 GWh annual consumption.
So at 5% YoY growth, we hit it at about 2031.
Ok, so that's only a decade and a half of non-stop growth. Now we're talking something plausible. 5% YoY for 15 years means someone will be making a lot of money if that comes anywhere to be.
- philipkglass 10y agoI'd say under 10,000 GWh/day required, because: a) The LLNL flow charts are for primary energy, not energy services; an electric vehicle can travel further on a megajoule of electricity than an internal combustion vehicle can travel on a megajoule of diesel fuel. b) Long distance shipping, airlines, and (probably) long distance trucking are not going to replace liquid fuels with batteries. Either there's going to be residual use of fossils for those smaller applications or electricity will be used to make synthetic liquids; either way those segments aren't going to contribute to battery requirements.
- epistasis 10y ago5% YoY growth seems pretty small. The costs of storage are dropping at ~10% per year. As the cost falls, lithium ion storage is going to be the cheapest solution for more and more applications, and it's going to grow very quickly. Supply chains are going to be expanding soon...
- maxerickson 10y agoThat's sort of how I view Tesla. It's more of an option on the future market for batteries than it is leading the charge towards electric vehicles. They aren't all that far ahead of other auto manufacturers in the mass market segment (maybe even behind).
- yessql 10y agoElon Musk says the world needs about 100 "gigafactories", so we need 3500 GWh of battery making capacity per year. At that rate it would take 7 years to reach 22 TWh of capacity.