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There are currently 4 billion people on earth with no access to the internet whatsoever [1]. If that's not a massive problem that also represents a massive busi

There are currently 4 billion people on earth with no access to the internet whatsoever [1]. If that's not a massive problem that also represents a massive business opportunity, I don't know what is. 1: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/4-billion-people-still-don-t-have-internet-access-here-s-how-to-connect-them https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/4-billion-people-stil...

wahern 10y ago
If they don't have internet access, they probably don't have much disposable income. Also, those 4 billion people are spread across diverse legal jurisdictions, not to mention diverse geographic, linguistic, and economic regions. I agree it's a massive problem, and I don't doubt there are business opportunities. I just question how massive are those opportunities. It's like shale oil--there's tons of it, but it's only profitable to extract under the right circumstances.
- nkkar 10y ago
  I suppose it depends on your investment goals, profile, etc. If you hold the general thesis that "the future" will see continued "progress", increased living standards & more consumers, then it's probably a good bet. If that timeline looks like, say, 50 years (no, I'm not convinced people invest on this kind of timeline, those profits may be too far out, but banks, ...maybe?), then a billion today may be a worldwide monopoly tomorrow. Maybe?
  - wahern 10y ago
    The company that launched the original Iridium constellation went bankrupt one year (1999) after the constellation went live (1998). Did they have foresight? Absolutely. Did they successfully create a new market? Yes. Did they hold an effective monopoly? Yes. Was their product and service a technological success? Clearly, as it's still used today. Did they make money? No, not even close. Theirs was the largest U.S. bankruptcy at the time. Yes, there may be tremendous opportunity. But there's also tremendous risk. Timing and strategy are everything, and nobody has a crystal ball for those details even when the big picture is a certainty.
- intrasight 10y ago
  There are also millions of wealthy people who go places (even not far from their homes) where there is no internet access. Remember that business is about filling the area under the demand curve. I'd say that "internet everywhere" is a massive opportunity.
  - wahern 10y ago
    A fair point. But there's a difference between a person not having internet access and a place not having internet access. You'd be surprised at the far flung locales that still have internet cafes and WiFi at hotels. The density and quality of internet access in poorer areas is already going to be a function of where wealthy people travel. Also, you have to correctly judge the cost of service. Demand for internet access is much more elastic than, say, demand for a cure for cancer. The lesson from the Iridium constellation is that even wealthy people aren't necessarily willing to pay as much as needed, or as often as needed, to recoup investments. Iridium succeeded but the original company went bankrupt shortly after starting service.
    - intrasight 10y ago
      But I want internet at my cabin in the woods - and I'm sure that I am not alone. Lots of things have improved since Iridium, but I agree that that is a warning to heed - you have to know the shape of that demand curve.
      - syedkarim 10y ago
        The entire world (even the most remote places) already has internet access (VSAT, BGAN, etc). OneWeb is just supposed to make rural satellite internet faster and cheaper.
        dx034 10y ago
        Current internet via satellite is barely usable due to the extremely high latency. It's better than nothing but many services are de facto not usable. I've just been to Scotland and many places there have to rely on satellite internet, I'm sure the vast majority of them would be happy to switch to lower latency connections (and could pay well for it).

wahern 10y ago

If they don't have internet access, they probably don't have much disposable income. Also, those 4 billion people are spread across diverse legal jurisdictions, not to mention diverse geographic, linguistic, and economic regions. I agree it's a massive problem, and I don't doubt there are business opportunities. I just question how massive are those opportunities. It's like shale oil--there's tons of it, but it's only profitable to extract under the right circumstances.

nkkar 10y ago
I suppose it depends on your investment goals, profile, etc. If you hold the general thesis that "the future" will see continued "progress", increased living standards & more consumers, then it's probably a good bet. If that timeline looks like, say, 50 years (no, I'm not convinced people invest on this kind of timeline, those profits may be too far out, but banks, ...maybe?), then a billion today may be a worldwide monopoly tomorrow. Maybe?
- wahern 10y ago
  The company that launched the original Iridium constellation went bankrupt one year (1999) after the constellation went live (1998). Did they have foresight? Absolutely. Did they successfully create a new market? Yes. Did they hold an effective monopoly? Yes. Was their product and service a technological success? Clearly, as it's still used today. Did they make money? No, not even close. Theirs was the largest U.S. bankruptcy at the time. Yes, there may be tremendous opportunity. But there's also tremendous risk. Timing and strategy are everything, and nobody has a crystal ball for those details even when the big picture is a certainty.
intrasight 10y ago
There are also millions of wealthy people who go places (even not far from their homes) where there is no internet access. Remember that business is about filling the area under the demand curve. I'd say that "internet everywhere" is a massive opportunity.
- wahern 10y ago
  A fair point. But there's a difference between a person not having internet access and a place not having internet access. You'd be surprised at the far flung locales that still have internet cafes and WiFi at hotels. The density and quality of internet access in poorer areas is already going to be a function of where wealthy people travel. Also, you have to correctly judge the cost of service. Demand for internet access is much more elastic than, say, demand for a cure for cancer. The lesson from the Iridium constellation is that even wealthy people aren't necessarily willing to pay as much as needed, or as often as needed, to recoup investments. Iridium succeeded but the original company went bankrupt shortly after starting service.
  - intrasight 10y ago
    But I want internet at my cabin in the woods - and I'm sure that I am not alone. Lots of things have improved since Iridium, but I agree that that is a warning to heed - you have to know the shape of that demand curve.
    - syedkarim 10y ago
      The entire world (even the most remote places) already has internet access (VSAT, BGAN, etc). OneWeb is just supposed to make rural satellite internet faster and cheaper.
      - dx034 10y ago
        Current internet via satellite is barely usable due to the extremely high latency. It's better than nothing but many services are de facto not usable. I've just been to Scotland and many places there have to rely on satellite internet, I'm sure the vast majority of them would be happy to switch to lower latency connections (and could pay well for it).