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In aviation, it all slowed down after the tech started to require larger and larger investments to research, combined with hitting harder boundaries on fundamen

In aviation, it all slowed down after the tech started to require larger and larger investments to research, combined with hitting harder boundaries on fundamental energy and propulsion capabilities. Individuals were priced out because of the increasing capital requirements, and institutions (gov't and large companies) are so bad at making non-sure-thing bets that individuals might otherwise pursue. Hence why rocketry is only advancing now after some random billionaires came along to make investments, which as financial bets would be disqualified in a heartbeat by most of the people holding the strings of business investment. There's still capability to be gotten in propulsion, but I suspect a lot of it will revolve around basic materials research (which is definitely unattractive to the vast majority of potential investors). I worry that the aviation market is an example of how modern capitalism is failing to systematically advance civilization (even apart from the more political class inequality problems that is being argued about...). Edit: and the failure is in any endeavor that doesn't fit typically short investment time scales and 'calculability' of ROI, not just aerospace.

nine_k 10y ago
Not just one, but a number of "random billionaires" suddenly started to invest in rockets and spacecraft during the last decade. I'd rather link it to something else: maybe CAD advancements, maybe material science, maybe avionics, maybe the release of some regulatory limitations. Likely all of these in concert.
- digikata 10y ago
  Sure, but my main point was that the advancement of civilization shouldn't depend on the whims of random billionaires. We shouldn't prevent random billionaires from developing the tech either, but multi-decade trend of politics and society believing that "capitalism" provides a complete economic system has big holes in it for certain advancements: space travel, for antibiotics, for civilization-ending externalities like climate change. The pileup of what capitalism isn't addressing is getting very serious. And if you're being quantitative, skipping all/most long-term, low-visibility-payoff risks still leaves your economy behind one that is able to make those investments -- at least some of the time, in favor of the next social-chat app, or k-cup juice tech. And incidentally - IMHO, I strongly suspect there is nothing in avionics algorithmically or computationally that modern rocketry needs that didn't not already exist 30-40+ years ago (then again, I don't closely follow that anymore...) One of the key structural advancements for SpaceX rockets - was created 20+ years ago - friction stir welding... I may be too cynical, but really the only real advancement there is parties able & willing to take on long term risks.

nine_k 10y ago

Not just one, but a number of "random billionaires" suddenly started to invest in rockets and spacecraft during the last decade. I'd rather link it to something else: maybe CAD advancements, maybe material science, maybe avionics, maybe the release of some regulatory limitations. Likely all of these in concert.

digikata 10y ago
Sure, but my main point was that the advancement of civilization shouldn't depend on the whims of random billionaires. We shouldn't prevent random billionaires from developing the tech either, but multi-decade trend of politics and society believing that "capitalism" provides a complete economic system has big holes in it for certain advancements: space travel, for antibiotics, for civilization-ending externalities like climate change. The pileup of what capitalism isn't addressing is getting very serious. And if you're being quantitative, skipping all/most long-term, low-visibility-payoff risks still leaves your economy behind one that is able to make those investments -- at least some of the time, in favor of the next social-chat app, or k-cup juice tech. And incidentally - IMHO, I strongly suspect there is nothing in avionics algorithmically or computationally that modern rocketry needs that didn't not already exist 30-40+ years ago (then again, I don't closely follow that anymore...) One of the key structural advancements for SpaceX rockets - was created 20+ years ago - friction stir welding... I may be too cynical, but really the only real advancement there is parties able & willing to take on long term risks.