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My (unbiased) 2 cents.. “Qualitatively, Amazon’s position is more secure than the numbers would indicate.” I beg to differ. I believe Apple has a much more se

My (unbiased) 2 cents.. “Qualitatively, Amazon’s position is more secure than the numbers would indicate.” I beg to differ. I believe Apple has a much more secured position than Amazon in the long run, given how Siri is already integrated in iOs mobile devices and macOS based desktops. So far, has Apple capitalized on this advantage? Nope. Are they gonna? Most likely, given the fact that they always wait for everyone to show their projects in high school science fair and then they roll out their better comprehensive showcase. If Apple does not launch a voice based home automation product in late 2017 or early 2018 then it might be too late. Apple's true competitor in this domain can only be Google with its staggering command on Android ecosystem. Microsoft effort is limited to Windows based PCs and even they might have a better advantage than Amazon. Amazon has mainstreamed a voice tech. They have done it well and made a point that this is the way of the future. Now the second part of the problem is to integrate already existing daily use computational devices with this "voice-tech". Amazon literally has none, no mobile and no desktops/laptops/tablets.

wavefunction 10y ago
Kindle? I know it's not necessarily a general purpose tablet but they have some experience with hardware.
- CodeSheikh 10y ago
  Given how possessive Google have become of Android, I doubt it Amazon would want to invest any further in Android based devices.
IBM 10y ago
>If Apple does not launch a voice based home automation product in late 2017 or early 2018 then it might be too late. Why would it be too late? This isn't a social network where the network effects make competition almost impossible. Apple already has a platform in HomeKit that leverages the much larger iOS installed base. More HomeKit compatible devices are being released all the time. In fact many people criticized Apple for imposing requirements around hardware-based security which slowed the release of devices, but the recent DDOS attacks and the Internet of Shit Twitter account has shown that was the correct move. I don't think there's any deadline for Apple to release an Echo competitor. If they release a product that is better/differentiated in some way, people will buy it. And they'll likely have a number of HomeKit devices already that work with it.
- CodeSheikh 10y ago
  I like your recent DDOS attack point in context to IOT devices. One argument in favor of Apple's wait stance could be that they just want the IOT/home-automation market to mature enough for them to come in with their voice-tech integration.
- JumpCrisscross 10y ago
  > This isn't a social network where the network effects make competition almost impossible There are still economies of scale. More microphones being used more frequently means more data on which to train.
  - IBM 10y ago
    Apple said there are 2 billion Siri requests made per week. http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/13/11906654/apple-wwdc-2016-news-highlights-recap-imessage-siri http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/13/11906654/apple-wwdc-2016-n...
    - JumpCrisscross 10y ago
      I wasn't making a specific claim regarding Amazon vs. Apple. Just pointing out that scale, and thus time-in-market, does have competitive meaning in this context.
      - IBM 10y ago
        Well in this context Apple already has scale. There's no advantage to Apple to releasing an Echo competitor sooner rather than later.
wstrange 10y ago
I think this market is Google's to lose, providing they can execute. The price point of Google Home is aggressive, and the same functionality is provided (or will be soon) to the Android ecosystem via Google Now / Google Assistant. Their voice and intent recognition is getting very good. I have noticed a marked improvement over the last year, even in noisy environments. I think competitors will struggle to keep up, and this is probably the single most defining feature of a personal assistant.
sandstrom 10y ago
It's a bit weird that Apple recently killed their Airport products[1]. Seems like it would be a good thing to retain, after all the router/wifi is sort of the nexus of any home. Sure, they may not directly make a lot of money off them but they that's also the case with many other things Apple make (iOS, for example). Most of Apple products (Mac/iPhones/iPads/AppleTV/[future Apple home product]) go through them. Google went the other direction, recently adding routers to their product mix. [1] http://arstechnica.com/apple/2016/11/report-apple-has-broken-up-its-airport-team-wont-be-making-new-routers/ http://arstechnica.com/apple/2016/11/report-apple-has-broken...
- snowwrestler 10y ago
  Routers are mostly built into broadband modems now, or provided as part of the service. They are dumb; the value is moving toward WiFi-enabled smart devices like the set-top box or Echo or heck the smartphone itself. The big selling points of Apple WiFi routers were the ease of use and the integrated Time Machine backups. Now they are hard to use (since there is already an ISP-supplied router to work around) and people backup online instead of locally.
- johnsmith21006 10y ago
  Apple had the Airport line for 17 years. Google announced the launch date for their new mesh WiFi network and Apple ended the line 1 week before the Google release. Probably a weird coincidence but is interesting.
ozmbie 10y ago
I think you're right. Alexa and Google home do well at...home. But Apple want everyone using a phone/watch/Airpods to interact with their AI assistant wherever they are. We can argue about the quality of Siri, but I think Apple have the best chance of dominating the wearables market.
zedpm 10y ago
>Amazon literally has none, no mobile and no desktops/laptops/tablets. Amazon has Kindle Fire tablets[0], [1]; these have Alexa built-in. [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B018SZT3BK/ref=twister_B01BRWH8G8?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B018SZT3BK/ref=twister_B01BRWH8G8?... [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0189XYY0Q/ref=fs_ods_fs_tab_ts https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0189XYY0Q/ref=fs_ods_fs_tab_ts
scholia 10y ago
> Microsoft effort is limited to Windows based PCs and even they might have a better advantage than Amazon. Not really. Microsoft has dozens of apps on iOS and Android, including Cortana, and it has Cortana on Xbox One as well. Microsoft also has a huge cloud business, second only to Azure. The Windows PC is one of the smaller parts of Microsoft's business nowadays. Microsoft has a big advantage over Google, because it supports online, on-premise and hybrid operations. It has a big advantage over Apple because it doesn't really care which hardware you use. > Amazon literally has none, no mobile and no desktops/laptops/tablets. Amazon has a substantial tablet business with a forked version of Android, and has its own app store. It also has plug in Fire TV products (which work much better than Apple TV), and an e-reader range, with content libraries to match.
- scholia 10y ago
  > Microsoft also has a huge cloud business, second only to Azure Ooops. That should say "AWS"...

wavefunction 10y ago

Kindle? I know it's not necessarily a general purpose tablet but they have some experience with hardware.

CodeSheikh 10y ago
Given how possessive Google have become of Android, I doubt it Amazon would want to invest any further in Android based devices.

IBM 10y ago

>If Apple does not launch a voice based home automation product in late 2017 or early 2018 then it might be too late. Why would it be too late? This isn't a social network where the network effects make competition almost impossible. Apple already has a platform in HomeKit that leverages the much larger iOS installed base. More HomeKit compatible devices are being released all the time. In fact many people criticized Apple for imposing requirements around hardware-based security which slowed the release of devices, but the recent DDOS attacks and the Internet of Shit Twitter account has shown that was the correct move. I don't think there's any deadline for Apple to release an Echo competitor. If they release a product that is better/differentiated in some way, people will buy it. And they'll likely have a number of HomeKit devices already that work with it.

CodeSheikh 10y ago
I like your recent DDOS attack point in context to IOT devices. One argument in favor of Apple's wait stance could be that they just want the IOT/home-automation market to mature enough for them to come in with their voice-tech integration.
JumpCrisscross 10y ago
> This isn't a social network where the network effects make competition almost impossible There are still economies of scale. More microphones being used more frequently means more data on which to train.
- IBM 10y ago
  Apple said there are 2 billion Siri requests made per week. http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/13/11906654/apple-wwdc-2016-news-highlights-recap-imessage-siri http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/13/11906654/apple-wwdc-2016-n...
  - JumpCrisscross 10y ago
    I wasn't making a specific claim regarding Amazon vs. Apple. Just pointing out that scale, and thus time-in-market, does have competitive meaning in this context.
    - IBM 10y ago
      Well in this context Apple already has scale. There's no advantage to Apple to releasing an Echo competitor sooner rather than later.

wstrange 10y ago

I think this market is Google's to lose, providing they can execute. The price point of Google Home is aggressive, and the same functionality is provided (or will be soon) to the Android ecosystem via Google Now / Google Assistant. Their voice and intent recognition is getting very good. I have noticed a marked improvement over the last year, even in noisy environments. I think competitors will struggle to keep up, and this is probably the single most defining feature of a personal assistant.

sandstrom 10y ago

It's a bit weird that Apple recently killed their Airport products[1]. Seems like it would be a good thing to retain, after all the router/wifi is sort of the nexus of any home. Sure, they may not directly make a lot of money off them but they that's also the case with many other things Apple make (iOS, for example). Most of Apple products (Mac/iPhones/iPads/AppleTV/[future Apple home product]) go through them. Google went the other direction, recently adding routers to their product mix. [1] http://arstechnica.com/apple/2016/11/report-apple-has-broken-up-its-airport-team-wont-be-making-new-routers/ http://arstechnica.com/apple/2016/11/report-apple-has-broken...

snowwrestler 10y ago
Routers are mostly built into broadband modems now, or provided as part of the service. They are dumb; the value is moving toward WiFi-enabled smart devices like the set-top box or Echo or heck the smartphone itself. The big selling points of Apple WiFi routers were the ease of use and the integrated Time Machine backups. Now they are hard to use (since there is already an ISP-supplied router to work around) and people backup online instead of locally.
johnsmith21006 10y ago
Apple had the Airport line for 17 years. Google announced the launch date for their new mesh WiFi network and Apple ended the line 1 week before the Google release. Probably a weird coincidence but is interesting.

ozmbie 10y ago

I think you're right. Alexa and Google home do well at...home. But Apple want everyone using a phone/watch/Airpods to interact with their AI assistant wherever they are. We can argue about the quality of Siri, but I think Apple have the best chance of dominating the wearables market.

zedpm 10y ago

>Amazon literally has none, no mobile and no desktops/laptops/tablets. Amazon has Kindle Fire tablets[0], [1]; these have Alexa built-in. [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B018SZT3BK/ref=twister_B01BRWH8G8?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B018SZT3BK/ref=twister_B01BRWH8G8?... [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0189XYY0Q/ref=fs_ods_fs_tab_ts https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0189XYY0Q/ref=fs_ods_fs_tab_ts

scholia 10y ago

> Microsoft effort is limited to Windows based PCs and even they might have a better advantage than Amazon. Not really. Microsoft has dozens of apps on iOS and Android, including Cortana, and it has Cortana on Xbox One as well. Microsoft also has a huge cloud business, second only to Azure. The Windows PC is one of the smaller parts of Microsoft's business nowadays. Microsoft has a big advantage over Google, because it supports online, on-premise and hybrid operations. It has a big advantage over Apple because it doesn't really care which hardware you use. > Amazon literally has none, no mobile and no desktops/laptops/tablets. Amazon has a substantial tablet business with a forked version of Android, and has its own app store. It also has plug in Fire TV products (which work much better than Apple TV), and an e-reader range, with content libraries to match.

scholia 10y ago
> Microsoft also has a huge cloud business, second only to Azure Ooops. That should say "AWS"...