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Nate Silver's post has absolutely nothing to do with forecasting. Why include a quote about forecasting? The BLS (bureau of labor statistics) numbers do indee

Nate Silver's post has absolutely nothing to do with forecasting. Why include a quote about forecasting? The BLS (bureau of labor statistics) numbers do indeed have some problems with the way they are calculated. Any way you choose to calculate these sorts of things is going to have some problems with it. I don't believe the problems are nearly as big as you seem to think, but that's beside the point. The point is, there are simply no better numbers than the ones the BLS provides. Nate Silver's evidence may have some flaws in it, but there simply is no better evidence out there. There is certainly no evidence out there to suggest that the author of the blog post is correct in saying "we don't make anything anymore".

bokonist 16y ago
Nate Silver's post has absolutely nothing to do with forecasting. Why include a quote about forecasting? The quote is a snapshot of the thinking inside government statistics offices. Nate Silver's evidence may have some flaws in it, but there simply is no better evidence out there. Sure there is. Report the actual quantities of how many goods are being manufactured. Look at statistics for how many cars, refrigerators, tractors, memory chips, steel, etc is being produced over time. Then make your own subjective judgement about whether its better to produce a ton of steel or a dozen computer chips.