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It's not that exactly. It's that investors are more interested in making money than "ideas". And they feel that people who have a good track record of deliverin
by aaron-lebo 10y ago
It's not that exactly. It's that investors are more interested in making money than "ideas". And they feel that people who have a good track record of delivering results are more likely to make them money than unknown an team with a great idea.
This is post-hoc justification.
Google, Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter have been worth billions (Reddit the exception) for more than a decade. They've collectively innovated how much since 2005? They have a bunch of small improvements that anyone could have anticipated and purchased many of the good ideas that have come along (Occulus). Some are floundering in spite of having massive reach (Twitter), some can't anticipate uses of their platform until after it happens (Facebook). Some are dead and their founders have joined the VC game (Digg). Did Kevin Rose not look like a pretty sure bet in 2006? Whatever happened to Milk?
Yet according to the "they know how to deliver" logic, they should be knocking new ideas out of the park. Where are they? Of course they have some successes but you could have some successes too if you have billions of dollars to subsidize yourself and an existing social network to support yourself and advertise your success. You throw ideas at a wall and the ones that work are evidence of know how. It's a broken metric.
Honestly, there is no evidence these companies are well run except for the fact that they won, but they effectively won a lottery at which point money starts flowing in. And that's the entire VC game - you'll have some moderate successes, mostly failures, and some unicorns. As long as you hit jackpot a few times you are ok. Meanwhile, part of the VC job is selling the idea that they know what they are doing, too.
And with hundreds of thousands of the world's smartest kids being funneled through the top colleges each year, you've got a lot of lottery tickets.
I think it's interesting that all of these authors are at Stanford or MIT. Seems similar to the backgrounds of a lot of tech talent:
Gates (Harvard), Zuckerberg (Harvard), Brin and Page (Stanford), Reddit guys (Cambridge area) you could go on and on.
Maybe there would be more diversity of ideas if the people behind them weren't all coming from similar backgrounds and self-selecting to certain locales...
- nine_k 10y agoI suspect that buying something that is a good idea and bring it to commercial success is what an accomplished founder should be best at doing. A successful founder is usually good at telling a better idea from a worse idea ahead of time, when the competition hasn't yet done the same. A successful founder is usually good at execution, so the next logical step is to bring the idea to fruition. OTOH coming up with a new and worthy idea by oneself is much harder: most good-looking ideas do not survive a contact with the reality. This is why Google came up with Maps and Android, both hugely successful, by acquisition. This is why Facebook got its iconic "Like" functionality by acquisition. As you noted, coming up with an idea and following it through to making millions off it is a lottery. Acquiring a good idea in a semi-product shape and making millions off it is also a lottery, but with much better odds. Guess what an intelligent person would choose more often, given the choice.
- saganus 10y agoDo you have links on how or when Facebook got likes by acquisition? I don't remember seeing this anywhere, but it might as well have happened. And if it did, it's weird how we can forget that Facebook didn't always had a like button, seeing as how it's a fundamental part of their platform.