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"In the software development world, it is impossible to produce meaningful estimates" As a manager and sometimes-coder, I know this to be untrue. It is true th

"In the software development world, it is impossible to produce meaningful estimates" As a manager and sometimes-coder, I know this to be untrue. It is true that you can never know precisely how long a given task/feature will take. But an experienced developer who isn't coming in blind to an extant project can certainly divide tasks into a few rough buckets: trivially easy (less than a few hours of work), very complicated (could require several weeks or more), and in-between. Those are meaningful distinctions! That kind of very rough estimate is incredibly valuable for planning. If I know which tasks are hard and which are easy and which are in between, I don't need to know exactly how many man-hours they'll take - rough estimates let me allocate resources and set priorities pretty darn well. Besides: managers are optimists, and in the absence of information to the contrary we will assume everything is easy. :)

sheepmullet 10y ago
The problem isn't estimates. The problem is in turning estimates into deadlines. An estimate is probabilistic. There might be 50% chance I can get it done in a week, 70% chance I can get it done in two weeks, and 95% chance I can get it done within the month. That is great for long term planning. However, if you use that to give me a deadline of two weeks then there is a good chance I won't deliver. This kind of pressure is toxic.
- peterbonney 10y ago
  "This kind of pressure is toxic." Agreed. But that is a problem of bad management, not an inherent problem with making estimates. And bad managers gonna manage badly, whether or not you give them estimates of how long tasks will take.
pdimitar 10y ago
Thank you for your perspective and a diplomatic peaceful language. You're a good manager. =) One thing I disagree on however: > Besides: managers are optimists, and in the absence of information to the contrary we will assume everything is easy. :) To me, that's a tongue-in-cheek internal joke that's simply not translating well to reality. Most of the times managers come off as total pessimists to me, in terms of always assuming you're over-allocating hours because you want to lie on your ass, or work on your side projects in your paid workday, or simply because you're a crappy programmer. They are under the illusion that pressure = productivity. Most of the time it seemed like the managers don't trust programmers and try to micro-manage them. I know you'll say this means they're bad managers but the fact that statistically they are most likely the majority isn't exactly helping as well, no?
- peterbonney 10y ago
  You're right, it's tongue-in-cheek (but not an in-joke). The gag (which I guess fell flat) is that managers are usually cynical pessimists about people, but ridiculous optimists (or maybe delusionists!) when it comes to planning and allocating resources ("Why do you need two weeks? That should only take one week!").
  - pdimitar 10y ago
    Yep, both seem pretty legit to me, given my past experiences. It still puzzles me how these two seemingly mutually-exclusive notions can coexist in a single person's mind.

sheepmullet 10y ago

The problem isn't estimates. The problem is in turning estimates into deadlines. An estimate is probabilistic. There might be 50% chance I can get it done in a week, 70% chance I can get it done in two weeks, and 95% chance I can get it done within the month. That is great for long term planning. However, if you use that to give me a deadline of two weeks then there is a good chance I won't deliver. This kind of pressure is toxic.

peterbonney 10y ago
"This kind of pressure is toxic." Agreed. But that is a problem of bad management, not an inherent problem with making estimates. And bad managers gonna manage badly, whether or not you give them estimates of how long tasks will take.

pdimitar 10y ago

Thank you for your perspective and a diplomatic peaceful language. You're a good manager. =) One thing I disagree on however: > Besides: managers are optimists, and in the absence of information to the contrary we will assume everything is easy. :) To me, that's a tongue-in-cheek internal joke that's simply not translating well to reality. Most of the times managers come off as total pessimists to me, in terms of always assuming you're over-allocating hours because you want to lie on your ass, or work on your side projects in your paid workday, or simply because you're a crappy programmer. They are under the illusion that pressure = productivity. Most of the time it seemed like the managers don't trust programmers and try to micro-manage them. I know you'll say this means they're bad managers but the fact that statistically they are most likely the majority isn't exactly helping as well, no?

peterbonney 10y ago
You're right, it's tongue-in-cheek (but not an in-joke). The gag (which I guess fell flat) is that managers are usually cynical pessimists about people, but ridiculous optimists (or maybe delusionists!) when it comes to planning and allocating resources ("Why do you need two weeks? That should only take one week!").
- pdimitar 10y ago
  Yep, both seem pretty legit to me, given my past experiences. It still puzzles me how these two seemingly mutually-exclusive notions can coexist in a single person's mind.