5 ms·

While I think you have some good points, and I'm not a huge fan of Plethora (like I said, their service was unusable for me), I think what we have here is peopl

While I think you have some good points, and I'm not a huge fan of Plethora (like I said, their service was unusable for me), I think what we have here is people coming from different perspectives. You understand real hardcore manufacturing and have a lot of experience in that realm. Plethora seems to be targeting people that don't know anything about manufacturing but want an easy way to build parts in small quantities. I don't know how they plan to scale to full manufacturing, and I don't know their numbers (the real question is retention, how many customers are coming back with larger order numbers), they may have found a niche by targeting customers that just don't know any better. I assume this market is small and I am skeptical of its value at all, since I know it's easier to just hire someone internally or just outsource it to a competent shop, but something Silicon Valley can do like nobody else is hype itself up. What that means is a lot of things, but it includes pumping up valuations for an eventual acquisition. Is Plethora creating real value? I'm extremely skeptical. Are they attempting to create a company that can be sold for a profit? That seems pretty likely to me, and that's what the overwhelming majority of investors care about. I think part of the problem is Nick sounds like he's pitching investors in this thread, when he's talking to people that are experienced in manufacturing. You're not his target audience. Then again, I doubt he's planning on showing this to investors, so I'm not really sure what his goal is here (unless he's just defensive, which is a really bad sign for him being able to see the forest for the trees).

rebootthesystem 10y ago
Absolutely agreed with all of your points. While, admittedly, my tone has been rather aggressive it has not been my intention to aggressively do anything than to say "you are making a big mistake". Making an "orders of magnitude" claim in a field like manufacturing can only happen if your customers are utterly ignorant. Find a tribe deep in some unknown forest who knows nothing about modern technology. Show up with a box of matches. You've made fire-starting "orders of magnitude" easier. Today I had a meeting with my local Haas representative. Yes, it's Sunday. I'm buying another machine and he is very accommodating due to year-end needs. We had an interesting conversation about improvements in the industry. Haas introduced an updated control about a year ago. If you look around on the 'net there are people who hate it. Some even talk about having returned machines due to the new control (and buying used machines with the old software). Are the controls that different? No, not really. However, to an experienced machinist who has been running these machines daily for years their "muscle memory" gets them into trouble when using the new control. I would compare it to switching between Mac and PC keyboards. I do that all the time and it can be a pain in the ass. When developing iOS code I have to use a Mac while all other tools are on our PC's including such things as Photoshop. My solution was to install a piece of software that allows me to remap the keyboard on the Mac to match a PC with sufficient fidelity to eliminate the cognitive load of using both platforms back-to-back. Imagine now having a shop with half a million dollars of machines you know how to use like you are playing a piano and the "new and improved" version of the machine has you making mistakes and feeling like you don't know what you are doing. It isn't that bad but there's enough of a cognitive load for some (not all, a few) of those who have to deal with this to not be happy with Haas. Another example is when MS switched-up the UI from Office 2003 to 2007. I felt like moron for a few weeks. And then we have someone come along and suggest they are going to make things more like software development and achieve an "orders of magnitude" improvement in manufacturing. While, in the real world, a highly experienced, well respected, leading-edge manufacturing company has to take baby steps to improve the UI and control of their $100K to $500K machines. The reality of manufacturing is that people need to make things, not play with toys (hardware or software) every time a new shiny thing is put on the table. I wish these guys the best but their messaging is horrible. To anyone who knows manufacturing it screams "I don't know what I am talking about". I am sure there are a bunch of Kickstarter projects that could use help. If they can build a business around that, fantastic.
nickpinkston 10y ago
Hey jayjay71 - thanks for your comments - let me clarify some of your questions! Our core customers are actually experienced engineers, but our publicly exposed product (CAD Add-in, site, etc.) isn't the offering where we're currently making most of our revenue, but in Q1 it will be. We'll announce the specifics publicly, so stay tuned. I suspect you'll be happy with what this has. Unless you have a exotic needs, we'll be able to make it. We essentially decided that it's more important to satisfy our early enterprise customers using a lot of hand-selling until the CAD Add-in is fully there - which is the slow part because the computational geometry is quite tricky to get the experience you want for instant quotes / feedback that are meaningful. We are NOT building this to flip. There are far easier companies to start if you're looking to make a quick buck, and Founders Fund / Lux don't invest in companies with a small vision. We haven't talked a lot publicly about our long-term vision, but it's a core piece of our DNA. Happy to answer more questions.
- jayjay71 10y ago
  I want more materials (ie stainless steel, brass), greater capabilities (ie 5 axis mill, welding), and it would be nice to have guaranteed compliance for regulated industries (ie food, medicine). Other than that, you are more expensive than hiring a machinist the old-fashioned way for one-off parts. Apparently I just don't understand your business, because I'm clearly not your customer. Also please don't name drop your investors - nobody cares. Funding is a vanity metric. Focus on how you can be profitable when your business is no longer subsidized by external funding - that's what will make you successful. Growth is great but it doesn't help if you can't ever sell at a profit. Anyway, while I may not understand your business, I wish you luck. If you can truly revolutionize manufacturing the way you say that would be great.
  - nickpinkston 10y ago
    Yea, your list of materials / complexity is actually what we offer now in private (including turning, mill-turning) - public release coming in January. Certs for aerospace, etc. are coming in 2017. From our price studies, we're on par with other fast turn shops and faster than all of them with big high mix orders. You can get cheaper parts slowly, but we focus on people with more money than time. Ha, funding isn't a vanity metric when your company needs financing. If you're doing a really big project in a high-growth competitive market, you'll very often need to go the VC route. Bootstrapping doesn't work for this. If you've ever done it, you know that raising angel/VC money is hard work. I respect people who are able to raise funding, and far more I respect when they turn that into great products that help a lot of people. Yea, I think making manufacturing better is a big deal, and there is much work to do. Thanks for all of your feedback!

rebootthesystem 10y ago

Absolutely agreed with all of your points. While, admittedly, my tone has been rather aggressive it has not been my intention to aggressively do anything than to say "you are making a big mistake". Making an "orders of magnitude" claim in a field like manufacturing can only happen if your customers are utterly ignorant. Find a tribe deep in some unknown forest who knows nothing about modern technology. Show up with a box of matches. You've made fire-starting "orders of magnitude" easier. Today I had a meeting with my local Haas representative. Yes, it's Sunday. I'm buying another machine and he is very accommodating due to year-end needs. We had an interesting conversation about improvements in the industry. Haas introduced an updated control about a year ago. If you look around on the 'net there are people who hate it. Some even talk about having returned machines due to the new control (and buying used machines with the old software). Are the controls that different? No, not really. However, to an experienced machinist who has been running these machines daily for years their "muscle memory" gets them into trouble when using the new control. I would compare it to switching between Mac and PC keyboards. I do that all the time and it can be a pain in the ass. When developing iOS code I have to use a Mac while all other tools are on our PC's including such things as Photoshop. My solution was to install a piece of software that allows me to remap the keyboard on the Mac to match a PC with sufficient fidelity to eliminate the cognitive load of using both platforms back-to-back. Imagine now having a shop with half a million dollars of machines you know how to use like you are playing a piano and the "new and improved" version of the machine has you making mistakes and feeling like you don't know what you are doing. It isn't that bad but there's enough of a cognitive load for some (not all, a few) of those who have to deal with this to not be happy with Haas. Another example is when MS switched-up the UI from Office 2003 to 2007. I felt like moron for a few weeks. And then we have someone come along and suggest they are going to make things more like software development and achieve an "orders of magnitude" improvement in manufacturing. While, in the real world, a highly experienced, well respected, leading-edge manufacturing company has to take baby steps to improve the UI and control of their $100K to $500K machines. The reality of manufacturing is that people need to make things, not play with toys (hardware or software) every time a new shiny thing is put on the table. I wish these guys the best but their messaging is horrible. To anyone who knows manufacturing it screams "I don't know what I am talking about". I am sure there are a bunch of Kickstarter projects that could use help. If they can build a business around that, fantastic.

nickpinkston 10y ago

Hey jayjay71 - thanks for your comments - let me clarify some of your questions! Our core customers are actually experienced engineers, but our publicly exposed product (CAD Add-in, site, etc.) isn't the offering where we're currently making most of our revenue, but in Q1 it will be. We'll announce the specifics publicly, so stay tuned. I suspect you'll be happy with what this has. Unless you have a exotic needs, we'll be able to make it. We essentially decided that it's more important to satisfy our early enterprise customers using a lot of hand-selling until the CAD Add-in is fully there - which is the slow part because the computational geometry is quite tricky to get the experience you want for instant quotes / feedback that are meaningful. We are NOT building this to flip. There are far easier companies to start if you're looking to make a quick buck, and Founders Fund / Lux don't invest in companies with a small vision. We haven't talked a lot publicly about our long-term vision, but it's a core piece of our DNA. Happy to answer more questions.

jayjay71 10y ago
I want more materials (ie stainless steel, brass), greater capabilities (ie 5 axis mill, welding), and it would be nice to have guaranteed compliance for regulated industries (ie food, medicine). Other than that, you are more expensive than hiring a machinist the old-fashioned way for one-off parts. Apparently I just don't understand your business, because I'm clearly not your customer. Also please don't name drop your investors - nobody cares. Funding is a vanity metric. Focus on how you can be profitable when your business is no longer subsidized by external funding - that's what will make you successful. Growth is great but it doesn't help if you can't ever sell at a profit. Anyway, while I may not understand your business, I wish you luck. If you can truly revolutionize manufacturing the way you say that would be great.
- nickpinkston 10y ago
  Yea, your list of materials / complexity is actually what we offer now in private (including turning, mill-turning) - public release coming in January. Certs for aerospace, etc. are coming in 2017. From our price studies, we're on par with other fast turn shops and faster than all of them with big high mix orders. You can get cheaper parts slowly, but we focus on people with more money than time. Ha, funding isn't a vanity metric when your company needs financing. If you're doing a really big project in a high-growth competitive market, you'll very often need to go the VC route. Bootstrapping doesn't work for this. If you've ever done it, you know that raising angel/VC money is hard work. I respect people who are able to raise funding, and far more I respect when they turn that into great products that help a lot of people. Yea, I think making manufacturing better is a big deal, and there is much work to do. Thanks for all of your feedback!