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Time estimations is an industrial way of thinking applied to a post-industrial world. In the post industrial world time isn't the problem but rather project de
by ThomPete 10y ago
Time estimations is an industrial way of thinking applied to a post-industrial world.
In the post industrial world time isn't the problem but rather project definition and scoping.
In the industrial world the problem were already solved (machine was built, market often established and output depended on a few factors that could be calculated and adjusted. Need more output add more of X)
In the post industrial world every project is about problem solving and scoping.
To put it into comparison.
If we apply post-industrial thinking to an industrial world. It means that each time a product needed to be done if not the factory, then the machines would have to be developed.
It will take many many years before time estimation will die, but it will happen.
- tyingq 10y ago>It will take many many years before time estimation will die, but it will happen. I'm not so sure. Typically the business isn't really asking for time estimates. They are asking for quarterly or yearly spend estimates. Since the primary cost driver is IT timesheets, they converge. At least at non-tech companies, that's never going to disappear. How much revenue will this project create, and how much investment/expense will it need (within specific time boundary x)?
- ThomPete 10y agoSure but those non-tech companies are most likely not post-industrially based. Technology is the big differentiator here. I am pretty sure what we will see sooner or later is some sort of continues development where the idea of estimate makes no sense only rushing towards being the first who solve problem X. If you think about it thats a much stronger position as long as there are enough money to pay for it. Companies who can't wont be able to survive IMO.
- tyingq 10y agoI see what you're getting at. The opposite happens as well though. Plenty of companies don't survive specifically because they chase problem X until there's no money left...rather than spending on a sane risk/reward curve.