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Could you elaborate on your point? Im not sure I understand.
by SomeStupidPoint 10y ago
Could you elaborate on your point? Im not sure I understand.
- Jweb_Guru 10y agoAn accurate global predictor with no regional information should have predicted a Hillary win (since Hillary won the popular vote by a fair margin). So if you had a global predictor predicting a Trump win, either (1) it must have taken regional information into account (in order to understand that the distribution of votes was concentrated in such a way that the electoral college would not swing Hillary's way), or (2) it must not have been an accurate predictor. Most of the polls or methods that predicted a Trump win did not take regional information into account, which means they were just inaccurate predictors.
- SomeStupidPoint 10y agoAh, I don't disagree. But there might be "hidden" location information in datasets that dont appear to have it, such as Twitter. Word choice carries regional and social information. So it's conceivable Twitter data could correctly predict the election with ML techniques that essentially are estimating the electoral college without being trained on an explicit model of it.