3 ms·

I can appreciate the cynicism your Venezuelan friends have about their government, they don't seem particularly competent or completely trustworthy. However, i

I can appreciate the cynicism your Venezuelan friends have about their government, they don't seem particularly competent or completely trustworthy. However, if you put yourself if Maduro's shoes, what would you do differently? We're not going to make things better until we start thinking of the problems in that way.

petertodd 10y ago
Maduro would be better off telling the truth rather than destroying what trust is left in government via silly lies: Venezuela has relied too heavily on oil exports, and the drop in oil prices is bankrupting the country.
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  Okay, so he tells the truth. What should he do next?
  - tim333 10y ago
    Resign and allow an economically sane government instead of a communist former bus driver to run things. I know he loves power but you'd think he could look at the food lines and horrific hospitals and admit someone else might be better qualified.
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      Fine, let's say he resigns. What actions should the leader who takes over do to turn the economy around?
      - sg47 10y ago
        Figure out what else you can export. Borrow and spend on public infrastructure projects.
        chimeracoder 10y ago
        > Borrow and spend on public infrastructure projects. That's a little hard to do when you're currently facing hyperinflation.
        mullen 10y ago
        Stop running the printing presses. Venezuela's hyperinflation is caused by one thing and only one thing, Venezuela is just printing money as fast as it can.
        chimeracoder 10y ago
        > Venezuela's hyperinflation is caused by one thing and only one thing, Venezuela is just printing money as fast as it can. Okay, then how are you going to "borrow and spend on public infrastructure"? Where is that money going to come from? If you're not going to print it now, you can float a bond, but that bond is going to be backed buy the promise of future solvency. And investors have very little reason to have faith in the future solvency of that government, which means we're back to either printing money to fulfill the bond or defaulting.
        mullen 10y ago
        > Okay, then how are you going to "borrow and spend on public infrastructure"? Where is that money going to come from? Countries suffering from hyperinflation don't borrow and spend on public infrastructure. They run the printing presses to make money so they pay off the military, police and their high level supporters to stay in power. > If you're not going to print it now, you can float a bond, but that bond is going to be backed buy the promise of future solvency. No one is buying bonds from a country suffering from hyperinflation. That would be crazy. Unfortunately for Maduro, the only way to solve this problem is to replace the government, introduce a new currency and stop running the printing presses. Okay, it's not THAT simple, but it is a good start.
        10y ago
      - tim333 10y ago
        Merely allowing normal currency free currency trading rather than the strange mess they have at the moment and dropping price controls would fix a lot of the problems. Also allowing largely free trade and freedom of doing business and charging a normal market price for gas would help. They could also apologize to the likes of Maria Lourdes Afiuni and try to reinstate rule of law and return some of the confiscated businesses to their owners. Venezuela used to be the richest country in South America and has possibly the worlds largest oil reserves. It's taken some impressively bad governance to get it to its present state.
  - ersii 10y ago
    The only option after abdicating your dictatorship (if that's what he'd do after telling the truth), is to flee the country. If you stay, you'll be killed.
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      Fine, let's say he flees the country. What actions should the leader who takes over do to turn the economy around?
      - lisivka 10y ago
        Jail all communists. Cut expenses by factor of 3x. Introduce a stable currency (e.g. «equivalent of 1 USD» - equo). Force creation of new small firms by providing government couching and assistance, while also reduce taxes for them to bare minimum — small business can soak lot of unemployment for free. Rely on large business to cover government expenses, but be realistic: no taxes means no expenses. PS. Moreover, remove all regulations and restrictions which are not vitally important. It's equivalent of turn off of all consumers of electricity when starting of a car engine.
        Thrillington 10y ago
        Starting by jailing your political opponents... That doesn't seem like a good way to build trust.
        lisivka 10y ago
        LOL Communists are killing their political opponents. It's part of their political doctrine. Do you need some quotes of famous communists? PS. Sometimes we need to cure illness of patients, sometimes we can't do that and need to isolate patients because they are threat for healthy people. Communists ideology damages morality to point of no return. Communists killed about 100 millions of people in last century (about 60 millions in China alone), but they have no afraid of that. In soviet Russia, shortly after capture, major communists had meeting about how to build communism. They decided that they need to kill 10% of population of every generation to convert regular people into «soviet people», which then figure out how to build communism. I found that in filmed archives of secret soviet documents.
- ptaipale 10y ago
  Venezuela's real problem isn't just relying on oil exports; it's more about the leadership living in a fantasy land where they ignore realities of economic policy. For instance, they fail to understand or to admit that price controls have other impacts, and that when a bakery is forced to sell bread at below the cost of manufacture, the resulting shortages are not because of a counter-revolutionary conspiracy. Maduro and his friends are sticking to power by any means, and we've seen this before in other countries (like Zimbabwe) and we'll see it again elsewhere. Fortunately not in that many countries.
VodkaHaze 10y ago
Get a team of high level economists in your central bank and economic advisory board. Start with curbing hyperinflation. That's been done before several times. Do what is known to work. There are some macroeconomic PhDs whose wet dream is to have a case so clear cut like this where they can make a difference. Put them in your central bank and have them get to work. Remove price controls right away on just about everything that is price controlled. Same for supply control/management. Get the minimum wage back down. Hell put it too low until you have a partial equilibrium to intuit a "correct" MW level to base it on.
macspoofing 10y ago
Hyperinflation is a well studied phenomena! He should invite some world-class economists to help guide policy!! What's so hard about that?
- matt_wulfeck 10y ago
  He's a stubborn, prideful person my guess.
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    Possibly. However, I suspect the problems in Venezuela aren't just with hyperinflation. In any case, leadership that the people can trust will be a good start.
- woodandsteel 10y ago
  The problem is the needed steps would move the country in a free market direction, and Madura wants to stick with socialism.
int_19h 10y ago
Two things would go a long way. First, stop all attempts to control the exchange rate. The moment you have an "official" and "unofficial" exchange rate for a currency, you're going to have a black market cashing in on the difference. Just leave the rate to stabilize by itself, at whatever level the market is willing to pay for it. Second, stop regulating prices for any goods for which there is a deficit. If the price is artificially low, that causes a deficit, because the aforementioned black market will use all means available to buy products at those low prices, and resell them at the real prices. And none of this is rocket science. These two things are exactly what had to be done in the USSR to get anywhere (and, like Venezuela, they persisted in refusing to do them for a long time, making the problem worse and worse).

petertodd 10y ago

Maduro would be better off telling the truth rather than destroying what trust is left in government via silly lies: Venezuela has relied too heavily on oil exports, and the drop in oil prices is bankrupting the country.

ZenoArrow 10y ago
Okay, so he tells the truth. What should he do next?
- tim333 10y ago
  Resign and allow an economically sane government instead of a communist former bus driver to run things. I know he loves power but you'd think he could look at the food lines and horrific hospitals and admit someone else might be better qualified.
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    Fine, let's say he resigns. What actions should the leader who takes over do to turn the economy around?
    - sg47 10y ago
      Figure out what else you can export. Borrow and spend on public infrastructure projects.
      - chimeracoder 10y ago
        > Borrow and spend on public infrastructure projects. That's a little hard to do when you're currently facing hyperinflation.
        mullen 10y ago
        Stop running the printing presses. Venezuela's hyperinflation is caused by one thing and only one thing, Venezuela is just printing money as fast as it can.
        chimeracoder 10y ago
        > Venezuela's hyperinflation is caused by one thing and only one thing, Venezuela is just printing money as fast as it can. Okay, then how are you going to "borrow and spend on public infrastructure"? Where is that money going to come from? If you're not going to print it now, you can float a bond, but that bond is going to be backed buy the promise of future solvency. And investors have very little reason to have faith in the future solvency of that government, which means we're back to either printing money to fulfill the bond or defaulting.
        mullen 10y ago
        > Okay, then how are you going to "borrow and spend on public infrastructure"? Where is that money going to come from? Countries suffering from hyperinflation don't borrow and spend on public infrastructure. They run the printing presses to make money so they pay off the military, police and their high level supporters to stay in power. > If you're not going to print it now, you can float a bond, but that bond is going to be backed buy the promise of future solvency. No one is buying bonds from a country suffering from hyperinflation. That would be crazy. Unfortunately for Maduro, the only way to solve this problem is to replace the government, introduce a new currency and stop running the printing presses. Okay, it's not THAT simple, but it is a good start.
        10y ago
    - tim333 10y ago
      Merely allowing normal currency free currency trading rather than the strange mess they have at the moment and dropping price controls would fix a lot of the problems. Also allowing largely free trade and freedom of doing business and charging a normal market price for gas would help. They could also apologize to the likes of Maria Lourdes Afiuni and try to reinstate rule of law and return some of the confiscated businesses to their owners. Venezuela used to be the richest country in South America and has possibly the worlds largest oil reserves. It's taken some impressively bad governance to get it to its present state.
- ersii 10y ago
  The only option after abdicating your dictatorship (if that's what he'd do after telling the truth), is to flee the country. If you stay, you'll be killed.
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    Fine, let's say he flees the country. What actions should the leader who takes over do to turn the economy around?
    - lisivka 10y ago
      Jail all communists. Cut expenses by factor of 3x. Introduce a stable currency (e.g. «equivalent of 1 USD» - equo). Force creation of new small firms by providing government couching and assistance, while also reduce taxes for them to bare minimum — small business can soak lot of unemployment for free. Rely on large business to cover government expenses, but be realistic: no taxes means no expenses. PS. Moreover, remove all regulations and restrictions which are not vitally important. It's equivalent of turn off of all consumers of electricity when starting of a car engine.
      - Thrillington 10y ago
        Starting by jailing your political opponents... That doesn't seem like a good way to build trust.
        lisivka 10y ago
        LOL Communists are killing their political opponents. It's part of their political doctrine. Do you need some quotes of famous communists? PS. Sometimes we need to cure illness of patients, sometimes we can't do that and need to isolate patients because they are threat for healthy people. Communists ideology damages morality to point of no return. Communists killed about 100 millions of people in last century (about 60 millions in China alone), but they have no afraid of that. In soviet Russia, shortly after capture, major communists had meeting about how to build communism. They decided that they need to kill 10% of population of every generation to convert regular people into «soviet people», which then figure out how to build communism. I found that in filmed archives of secret soviet documents.
ptaipale 10y ago
Venezuela's real problem isn't just relying on oil exports; it's more about the leadership living in a fantasy land where they ignore realities of economic policy. For instance, they fail to understand or to admit that price controls have other impacts, and that when a bakery is forced to sell bread at below the cost of manufacture, the resulting shortages are not because of a counter-revolutionary conspiracy. Maduro and his friends are sticking to power by any means, and we've seen this before in other countries (like Zimbabwe) and we'll see it again elsewhere. Fortunately not in that many countries.

VodkaHaze 10y ago

Get a team of high level economists in your central bank and economic advisory board. Start with curbing hyperinflation. That's been done before several times. Do what is known to work. There are some macroeconomic PhDs whose wet dream is to have a case so clear cut like this where they can make a difference. Put them in your central bank and have them get to work. Remove price controls right away on just about everything that is price controlled. Same for supply control/management. Get the minimum wage back down. Hell put it too low until you have a partial equilibrium to intuit a "correct" MW level to base it on.

macspoofing 10y ago

Hyperinflation is a well studied phenomena! He should invite some world-class economists to help guide policy!! What's so hard about that?

matt_wulfeck 10y ago
He's a stubborn, prideful person my guess.
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  Possibly. However, I suspect the problems in Venezuela aren't just with hyperinflation. In any case, leadership that the people can trust will be a good start.
woodandsteel 10y ago
The problem is the needed steps would move the country in a free market direction, and Madura wants to stick with socialism.

int_19h 10y ago

Two things would go a long way. First, stop all attempts to control the exchange rate. The moment you have an "official" and "unofficial" exchange rate for a currency, you're going to have a black market cashing in on the difference. Just leave the rate to stabilize by itself, at whatever level the market is willing to pay for it. Second, stop regulating prices for any goods for which there is a deficit. If the price is artificially low, that causes a deficit, because the aforementioned black market will use all means available to buy products at those low prices, and resell them at the real prices. And none of this is rocket science. These two things are exactly what had to be done in the USSR to get anywhere (and, like Venezuela, they persisted in refusing to do them for a long time, making the problem worse and worse).