Ok, so I'd never actually tallied the numbers. This does indeed indicate that Trump has a roughly 6/10 prior chance of winning reelection. Mind, I think that

Ok, so I'd never actually tallied the numbers. This does indeed indicate that Trump has a roughly 6/10 prior chance of winning reelection. Mind, I think that prior is moved by the fact that he's a historically unpopular president-elect already, but we will indeed see over four years what he manages to make of himself. Or whether he manages to collapse capitalism once and for all. Whatever.