I don't think you understand "substantial" in that context. The fact there is a consistent 50+ year trendline of compensation growth is simply caused by a comb

I don't think you understand "substantial" in that context. The fact there is a consistent 50+ year trendline of compensation growth is simply caused by a combination of productivity gains and inflation. You'd see a 5%+ jump in a single year if a legitimate shortage existed. https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm 2007-2015 : +1.3% (nonfarm productivity gains) 2007-2015 : +1.8% (manufacturing productivity gains) 2007-2015 : +1.2% (total compensation) Notice how similar these numbers are? That is a sign of normal compensation growth.