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There's a subtle argument here philosophically that I think is crucially tied to AI: determinism. If the world is deterministic, a sufficiently powered and adv

by adjkant 10y ago

There's a subtle argument here philosophically that I think is crucially tied to AI: determinism. If the world is deterministic, a sufficiently powered and advanced AI with enough data could actually predict the weather, not just for two weeks, but for years. This also enables many other things viewed as magic. This, of course, is incredibly far off. And I don't see a flaw in your point on flawless security. Though, I doubt we have many, if any, truly flawless security systems in existence. We just don't know their flaws, making them good enough for now. The world could get really interesting once AI's start programming and writing app security to protect itself from malicious AI's.

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kens 10y ago
Even with a totally deterministic model, you can't predict weather very far out because it's chaotic. In other words, you'd need to measure the parameters with arbitrarily high accuracy, which even an advanced AI can't do. To oversimplify, if you need one more bit of accuracy in the measurements for each hour you forecast, it's impossible to get enough accuracy to forecast a week out. For a detailed discussion of chaos and weather prediction, see: http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/Chaos%20and%20weather%20prediction.pdf http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/Chaos%20and%20weath... The "trick" for dealing with chaos is to do a bunch of predictions with perturbed values. If they all end up the same, then the forecast is probably okay. If they vary widely, then you know not to assign much accuracy to the forecast.
eigenframe 10y ago
I agree that "determinism" has much to do with the questions here, but to immediately pose a question about "the world" being deterministic might be putting the carriage before the horse. I think the the other, perhaps more prescient point here, is about whether or not that kind of exponentially-learning AGI being discussed is even possible given that the substrate such things would be embedded in (hardware, software) which are [or appear to be?] deterministic. One assumes that that kind of learning implies learning about or aquiring capabilites which have not already been determined or specified by a human. At some level of abstraction, humans _must_ determine that system. It is possible to concieve of a machine that is non-deterministic in that way? At what point does such a system actually leap beyond what has been specified by us? Does this imply a machine that not only rewrites itsel in softwate, but also remanufactures itself in hardware?

by adjkant 10y ago

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kens 10y ago

Even with a totally deterministic model, you can't predict weather very far out because it's chaotic. In other words, you'd need to measure the parameters with arbitrarily high accuracy, which even an advanced AI can't do. To oversimplify, if you need one more bit of accuracy in the measurements for each hour you forecast, it's impossible to get enough accuracy to forecast a week out. For a detailed discussion of chaos and weather prediction, see: http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/Chaos%20and%20weather%20prediction.pdf http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/Chaos%20and%20weath... The "trick" for dealing with chaos is to do a bunch of predictions with perturbed values. If they all end up the same, then the forecast is probably okay. If they vary widely, then you know not to assign much accuracy to the forecast.

eigenframe 10y ago

I agree that "determinism" has much to do with the questions here, but to immediately pose a question about "the world" being deterministic might be putting the carriage before the horse. I think the the other, perhaps more prescient point here, is about whether or not that kind of exponentially-learning AGI being discussed is even possible given that the substrate such things would be embedded in (hardware, software) which are [or appear to be?] deterministic. One assumes that that kind of learning implies learning about or aquiring capabilites which have not already been determined or specified by a human. At some level of abstraction, humans _must_ determine that system. It is possible to concieve of a machine that is non-deterministic in that way? At what point does such a system actually leap beyond what has been specified by us? Does this imply a machine that not only rewrites itsel in softwate, but also remanufactures itself in hardware?