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Having a growing list of real customers isn't an echo chamber. It's reality and means we're solving a real problem. Hardware isn't hard because it's physical.

Having a growing list of real customers isn't an echo chamber. It's reality and means we're solving a real problem. Hardware isn't hard because it's physical. It's hard because there's still a lot more progress left to go. There are no physics limits to making it orders of magnitude better on many dimensions. We just need to revitalize a stagnant industry. "Moore's Law to manufacturing" means taking the gains of computers and applying them to manufacturing where they're vastly under applied. Visit IMTS or Fabtech and you'll see how behind everything is - machines and software designed 10-30 years ago. Plethora is more than putting CNC machining on the internet. It's a new way of thinking about manufacturing. About taking the analogies of software and porting them to the manufacturing world. We've made a debugger, compiler, simulator, etc. for manufacturing CNC machined parts, but that's 1% of what we'll do. In the end, I suspect you're reacting to our optimism about radically changing a system - which I find funny for a user with the handle "RebootTheSystem" :-) Have fun out there.

rebootthesystem 10y ago
Let's just agree to disagree. Keep my posts. You'll understand just what I meant when you fail. Or when you have to make a significant pivot because your original assumptions were wrong (and, they are). I visit IMTS every year. Progress is significant and steady. Many years ago I tried to lead a "movement" to stop using G-code and go with something that made much more sense to me. I wanted something closer to a modern programming language, something that, in my mind, worked better. In the end I failed because of a simple reason: I wanted a solution to a non-existing problem. Yeah, G-code is "unrefined" and cave-man-ish but, in the greater context of things, G-code is an insignificant part of the equation. It's a solved problem. And I was trying to solve it all over again. That's just one example. You are beating your head against a wall. It's really funny to read your comments about machines and software designed 10 to 30 years ago. First of all, you are wrong. These systems are always being improved. Every year. The problem you don't seem to understand is that manufacturing isn't like buying a bunch of PC's and upgrading them every year. I can't throw away a dozen Haas CNC machines of different types every two years to adopt someone's hair-brained scheme. I can't dispose of my very expensive automated SMT assembly and optical inspection lines because some kid in Silicon Valley decided they want manufacturing to be hip. No sir, this isn't a hobby. If you want me or anyone else to shift into new equipment just because the UI is cooler, well you lost right there. If you, on the other hand, came up with, as you said, "orders of magnitude" better manufacturing, well maybe you have something. You do know that an order of magnitude is 10 times better and "orders of magnitude" is at least 100 times better, right? See, this is where you lose me. The only way I can put such a statement is that is it ignorant of reality to an incredible degree. Naive beyond description. Just what do you think people have been doing for the last 30 years? Waiting for you to come along while using stone-age tools to manufacture product so you could make things 100 times better? Again, echo chamber. I don't think you understand just how incredibly stupid some of these things sound to someone who lives in the real world making real products with real modern manufacturing. You really don't have a clue, do you? OK, here's another challenge for you. Since you seem to be focusing so much on IMTS and arcane CNC machines. Show up at the next IMTS with a next generation CNC vertical machining center and lathe of your design. Demonstrate how your hardware and software combination is "orders of magnitude" better than prior approaches. I'll let you slide and say, just show me an improvement of 10x. That's it. Show me how you can make things 10x better by designing new machines with new software. Your statement was "you'll see how behind everything is - machines and software designed 10-30 years ago.". OK, great. Show-up at the next IMTS and be the beacon of light with machines and process that is at least 10x better. Of course, I fully expect the exact opposite to be the case. If you attempt to do such a thing you will soon discover just how little you know about manufacturing and how much more you have to learn. I feel sorry for your investors. As for your "growing customer list", it'd be very interesting to learn who they might be. I have a feeling I know. As for "rebootthesystem". Well, you are reading too much into that. It's just a name, not a cult. What you have is a cult. I am all for driving progress but it has to be in the realm of the plausible. One requirement there is to create attainable solutions for real problems. This isn't about old school clashing with new ideas. I know you and your team are painting my feedback as "typical old-fart who doesn't understand". Have a good time laughing at my expense. No problem. I have exactly zero problem with developing ground breaking modern solutions and questioning everything in the process. That is exactly what I do each day. And, guess what, manufacturing isn't where the problems are. Could it be better? Sure. 10x better. That is impossible. 100x better? C'mon, get real.
- jayjay71 10y ago
  While I think you have some good points, and I'm not a huge fan of Plethora (like I said, their service was unusable for me), I think what we have here is people coming from different perspectives. You understand real hardcore manufacturing and have a lot of experience in that realm. Plethora seems to be targeting people that don't know anything about manufacturing but want an easy way to build parts in small quantities. I don't know how they plan to scale to full manufacturing, and I don't know their numbers (the real question is retention, how many customers are coming back with larger order numbers), they may have found a niche by targeting customers that just don't know any better. I assume this market is small and I am skeptical of its value at all, since I know it's easier to just hire someone internally or just outsource it to a competent shop, but something Silicon Valley can do like nobody else is hype itself up. What that means is a lot of things, but it includes pumping up valuations for an eventual acquisition. Is Plethora creating real value? I'm extremely skeptical. Are they attempting to create a company that can be sold for a profit? That seems pretty likely to me, and that's what the overwhelming majority of investors care about. I think part of the problem is Nick sounds like he's pitching investors in this thread, when he's talking to people that are experienced in manufacturing. You're not his target audience. Then again, I doubt he's planning on showing this to investors, so I'm not really sure what his goal is here (unless he's just defensive, which is a really bad sign for him being able to see the forest for the trees).
  - rebootthesystem 10y ago
    Absolutely agreed with all of your points. While, admittedly, my tone has been rather aggressive it has not been my intention to aggressively do anything than to say "you are making a big mistake". Making an "orders of magnitude" claim in a field like manufacturing can only happen if your customers are utterly ignorant. Find a tribe deep in some unknown forest who knows nothing about modern technology. Show up with a box of matches. You've made fire-starting "orders of magnitude" easier. Today I had a meeting with my local Haas representative. Yes, it's Sunday. I'm buying another machine and he is very accommodating due to year-end needs. We had an interesting conversation about improvements in the industry. Haas introduced an updated control about a year ago. If you look around on the 'net there are people who hate it. Some even talk about having returned machines due to the new control (and buying used machines with the old software). Are the controls that different? No, not really. However, to an experienced machinist who has been running these machines daily for years their "muscle memory" gets them into trouble when using the new control. I would compare it to switching between Mac and PC keyboards. I do that all the time and it can be a pain in the ass. When developing iOS code I have to use a Mac while all other tools are on our PC's including such things as Photoshop. My solution was to install a piece of software that allows me to remap the keyboard on the Mac to match a PC with sufficient fidelity to eliminate the cognitive load of using both platforms back-to-back. Imagine now having a shop with half a million dollars of machines you know how to use like you are playing a piano and the "new and improved" version of the machine has you making mistakes and feeling like you don't know what you are doing. It isn't that bad but there's enough of a cognitive load for some (not all, a few) of those who have to deal with this to not be happy with Haas. Another example is when MS switched-up the UI from Office 2003 to 2007. I felt like moron for a few weeks. And then we have someone come along and suggest they are going to make things more like software development and achieve an "orders of magnitude" improvement in manufacturing. While, in the real world, a highly experienced, well respected, leading-edge manufacturing company has to take baby steps to improve the UI and control of their $100K to $500K machines. The reality of manufacturing is that people need to make things, not play with toys (hardware or software) every time a new shiny thing is put on the table. I wish these guys the best but their messaging is horrible. To anyone who knows manufacturing it screams "I don't know what I am talking about". I am sure there are a bunch of Kickstarter projects that could use help. If they can build a business around that, fantastic.

rebootthesystem 10y ago

Let's just agree to disagree. Keep my posts. You'll understand just what I meant when you fail. Or when you have to make a significant pivot because your original assumptions were wrong (and, they are). I visit IMTS every year. Progress is significant and steady. Many years ago I tried to lead a "movement" to stop using G-code and go with something that made much more sense to me. I wanted something closer to a modern programming language, something that, in my mind, worked better. In the end I failed because of a simple reason: I wanted a solution to a non-existing problem. Yeah, G-code is "unrefined" and cave-man-ish but, in the greater context of things, G-code is an insignificant part of the equation. It's a solved problem. And I was trying to solve it all over again. That's just one example. You are beating your head against a wall. It's really funny to read your comments about machines and software designed 10 to 30 years ago. First of all, you are wrong. These systems are always being improved. Every year. The problem you don't seem to understand is that manufacturing isn't like buying a bunch of PC's and upgrading them every year. I can't throw away a dozen Haas CNC machines of different types every two years to adopt someone's hair-brained scheme. I can't dispose of my very expensive automated SMT assembly and optical inspection lines because some kid in Silicon Valley decided they want manufacturing to be hip. No sir, this isn't a hobby. If you want me or anyone else to shift into new equipment just because the UI is cooler, well you lost right there. If you, on the other hand, came up with, as you said, "orders of magnitude" better manufacturing, well maybe you have something. You do know that an order of magnitude is 10 times better and "orders of magnitude" is at least 100 times better, right? See, this is where you lose me. The only way I can put such a statement is that is it ignorant of reality to an incredible degree. Naive beyond description. Just what do you think people have been doing for the last 30 years? Waiting for you to come along while using stone-age tools to manufacture product so you could make things 100 times better? Again, echo chamber. I don't think you understand just how incredibly stupid some of these things sound to someone who lives in the real world making real products with real modern manufacturing. You really don't have a clue, do you? OK, here's another challenge for you. Since you seem to be focusing so much on IMTS and arcane CNC machines. Show up at the next IMTS with a next generation CNC vertical machining center and lathe of your design. Demonstrate how your hardware and software combination is "orders of magnitude" better than prior approaches. I'll let you slide and say, just show me an improvement of 10x. That's it. Show me how you can make things 10x better by designing new machines with new software. Your statement was "you'll see how behind everything is - machines and software designed 10-30 years ago.". OK, great. Show-up at the next IMTS and be the beacon of light with machines and process that is at least 10x better. Of course, I fully expect the exact opposite to be the case. If you attempt to do such a thing you will soon discover just how little you know about manufacturing and how much more you have to learn. I feel sorry for your investors. As for your "growing customer list", it'd be very interesting to learn who they might be. I have a feeling I know. As for "rebootthesystem". Well, you are reading too much into that. It's just a name, not a cult. What you have is a cult. I am all for driving progress but it has to be in the realm of the plausible. One requirement there is to create attainable solutions for real problems. This isn't about old school clashing with new ideas. I know you and your team are painting my feedback as "typical old-fart who doesn't understand". Have a good time laughing at my expense. No problem. I have exactly zero problem with developing ground breaking modern solutions and questioning everything in the process. That is exactly what I do each day. And, guess what, manufacturing isn't where the problems are. Could it be better? Sure. 10x better. That is impossible. 100x better? C'mon, get real.

jayjay71 10y ago
While I think you have some good points, and I'm not a huge fan of Plethora (like I said, their service was unusable for me), I think what we have here is people coming from different perspectives. You understand real hardcore manufacturing and have a lot of experience in that realm. Plethora seems to be targeting people that don't know anything about manufacturing but want an easy way to build parts in small quantities. I don't know how they plan to scale to full manufacturing, and I don't know their numbers (the real question is retention, how many customers are coming back with larger order numbers), they may have found a niche by targeting customers that just don't know any better. I assume this market is small and I am skeptical of its value at all, since I know it's easier to just hire someone internally or just outsource it to a competent shop, but something Silicon Valley can do like nobody else is hype itself up. What that means is a lot of things, but it includes pumping up valuations for an eventual acquisition. Is Plethora creating real value? I'm extremely skeptical. Are they attempting to create a company that can be sold for a profit? That seems pretty likely to me, and that's what the overwhelming majority of investors care about. I think part of the problem is Nick sounds like he's pitching investors in this thread, when he's talking to people that are experienced in manufacturing. You're not his target audience. Then again, I doubt he's planning on showing this to investors, so I'm not really sure what his goal is here (unless he's just defensive, which is a really bad sign for him being able to see the forest for the trees).
- rebootthesystem 10y ago
  Absolutely agreed with all of your points. While, admittedly, my tone has been rather aggressive it has not been my intention to aggressively do anything than to say "you are making a big mistake". Making an "orders of magnitude" claim in a field like manufacturing can only happen if your customers are utterly ignorant. Find a tribe deep in some unknown forest who knows nothing about modern technology. Show up with a box of matches. You've made fire-starting "orders of magnitude" easier. Today I had a meeting with my local Haas representative. Yes, it's Sunday. I'm buying another machine and he is very accommodating due to year-end needs. We had an interesting conversation about improvements in the industry. Haas introduced an updated control about a year ago. If you look around on the 'net there are people who hate it. Some even talk about having returned machines due to the new control (and buying used machines with the old software). Are the controls that different? No, not really. However, to an experienced machinist who has been running these machines daily for years their "muscle memory" gets them into trouble when using the new control. I would compare it to switching between Mac and PC keyboards. I do that all the time and it can be a pain in the ass. When developing iOS code I have to use a Mac while all other tools are on our PC's including such things as Photoshop. My solution was to install a piece of software that allows me to remap the keyboard on the Mac to match a PC with sufficient fidelity to eliminate the cognitive load of using both platforms back-to-back. Imagine now having a shop with half a million dollars of machines you know how to use like you are playing a piano and the "new and improved" version of the machine has you making mistakes and feeling like you don't know what you are doing. It isn't that bad but there's enough of a cognitive load for some (not all, a few) of those who have to deal with this to not be happy with Haas. Another example is when MS switched-up the UI from Office 2003 to 2007. I felt like moron for a few weeks. And then we have someone come along and suggest they are going to make things more like software development and achieve an "orders of magnitude" improvement in manufacturing. While, in the real world, a highly experienced, well respected, leading-edge manufacturing company has to take baby steps to improve the UI and control of their $100K to $500K machines. The reality of manufacturing is that people need to make things, not play with toys (hardware or software) every time a new shiny thing is put on the table. I wish these guys the best but their messaging is horrible. To anyone who knows manufacturing it screams "I don't know what I am talking about". I am sure there are a bunch of Kickstarter projects that could use help. If they can build a business around that, fantastic.