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First, this data is well out of date. Here are the EIA's latest calculations: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf http://www.eia.gov/

First, this data is well out of date. Here are the EIA's latest calculations: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.p... For plants entering production in 2018 (same cohort as in your old data above), Solar PV has fallen dramatically and is now right between combined-cycle and combustion natgas turbines. Second, your argument that because of the EIA calculations "natural gas will always win" is demonstrably false; Solar PV has been the fastest-growing source of new energy in the world in 2015: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/solar-is-the-fastest-growing-energy-says-top-fossil-fuel-major https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/solar-is-... It is in fact rather silly to say that one source of energy will "win"; in general a mix of sources will always provide best grid flexibility. Finally, I would also like to suggest that you avoid charts from dubious sources such as this marine current turbine startup and instead to search for up-to-date primary source data yourself.

chris_va 10y ago
Hi, feedback noted. I had not thought my comment would generate so much discussion, so yes I should have linked to a more up-to-date source (actually I thought I was linking to the 2015 data, and this was the easiest to read chart, but oops). I also should have included more information. Anyway, Solar PV is not dispatchable. What does that mean? It means that Solar PV will never replace baseline power by itself (maybe with storage, that is a long and separate conversation). Because renewables are highly variable, they tend to actually increase the variability of demand for baseline power. That means that power plants with lower capital costs, and quicker ramp up/down times are more profitable. Coal does not have a quick ramp up/down time, and nuclear is not low capital cost. As a result, the net power from natural gas has gone up, and nuclear/coal has dropped. Without some kind of energy storage, you'll never be able to get more than about 50% of the power from wind/solar/hydro in the US. The LCOE on Solar PV, if you extrapolate out the existing cost curve, drops to about 1.8c/kWh. The best energy storage methods are not very efficient (e.g. compressed air or molten salt only get about 40% efficiency), which means they will always be more expensive than natural gas.
- ahartman00 10y ago
  "which means they will always be more expensive than natural gas" The median cost of pumped hydro is ~20% premium over natural gas[1]. Nothing a carbon tax cant solve. Though this source claims that it would not be feasible to rely only on pumped hydro, due to the scale. [2] 1. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/galvan-lopez2/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/galvan-lopez2/ 2. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/ http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-stor...
  - chris_va 10y ago
    A carbon tax would solve the problem. Actually CCS is only about 15% more expensive, so it wouldn't even be that painful. Pumped hydro works really well, 85% efficiency, but there aren't .any places to put it.
    - patall 10y ago
      Well, there were plans for big hollow concrete spheres at the ground of off-shore wind power plants. And Belgium thought about an artifical island with a lowered water level lake inside.
- mcv 10y ago
  While this is a good analysis of the strengths and weaknesses or various energy sources, I think solar price will continue to drop and storage will improve, so that solar will eventually beat even gas. But it's true that gas, because of its adaptability, is the best supplement to fill up the gaps in solar and wind.

chris_va 10y ago

Hi, feedback noted. I had not thought my comment would generate so much discussion, so yes I should have linked to a more up-to-date source (actually I thought I was linking to the 2015 data, and this was the easiest to read chart, but oops). I also should have included more information. Anyway, Solar PV is not dispatchable. What does that mean? It means that Solar PV will never replace baseline power by itself (maybe with storage, that is a long and separate conversation). Because renewables are highly variable, they tend to actually increase the variability of demand for baseline power. That means that power plants with lower capital costs, and quicker ramp up/down times are more profitable. Coal does not have a quick ramp up/down time, and nuclear is not low capital cost. As a result, the net power from natural gas has gone up, and nuclear/coal has dropped. Without some kind of energy storage, you'll never be able to get more than about 50% of the power from wind/solar/hydro in the US. The LCOE on Solar PV, if you extrapolate out the existing cost curve, drops to about 1.8c/kWh. The best energy storage methods are not very efficient (e.g. compressed air or molten salt only get about 40% efficiency), which means they will always be more expensive than natural gas.

ahartman00 10y ago
"which means they will always be more expensive than natural gas" The median cost of pumped hydro is ~20% premium over natural gas[1]. Nothing a carbon tax cant solve. Though this source claims that it would not be feasible to rely only on pumped hydro, due to the scale. [2] 1. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/galvan-lopez2/ http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/galvan-lopez2/ 2. http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/ http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-stor...
- chris_va 10y ago
  A carbon tax would solve the problem. Actually CCS is only about 15% more expensive, so it wouldn't even be that painful. Pumped hydro works really well, 85% efficiency, but there aren't .any places to put it.
  - patall 10y ago
    Well, there were plans for big hollow concrete spheres at the ground of off-shore wind power plants. And Belgium thought about an artifical island with a lowered water level lake inside.
mcv 10y ago
While this is a good analysis of the strengths and weaknesses or various energy sources, I think solar price will continue to drop and storage will improve, so that solar will eventually beat even gas. But it's true that gas, because of its adaptability, is the best supplement to fill up the gaps in solar and wind.