3 ms·

Utility scale solar projects, the majority of which in the US now use single axis tracking, attain significantly higher capacity factors than rooftop installati

Utility scale solar projects, the majority of which in the US now use single axis tracking, attain significantly higher capacity factors than rooftop installations. There's still a wind advantage but I wouldn't say its CF is "much" higher. The EIA measured the capacity factors for US utility scale wind and PV respectively at 32.2% and 25.8% in 2015: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_6_07_b https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cf... Wind still has a capacity factor advantage, but at 59 GW and 70 GW, multiplying by those above capacity factors, wind and large scale PV would be nearly matched for real output (18.998 real GW and 18.06 real GW respectively). Somewhere like Germany the real-output gap between wind and solar would be greater while in India I'd expect it to be lesser, due to relatively poor wind resources. (In fact single-axis PV might actually beat wind on capacity factor in India.)

davedx 10y ago
Keep in mind wind CF's are still increasing as the world moves more to offshore wind farms with taller turbine heights. See for example the new Burbo Bank extension off Liverpool. Dong Energy tweeted me this when asked about their Vestas CF's there: https://twitter.com/DONGEnergy/status/775692082497351680 https://twitter.com/DONGEnergy/status/775692082497351680 "In general it is fair to assume a capacity factor of app. 50% for new wind farms at good sites."
- mikeyouse 10y ago
  One of my favorite charts: http://i.imgur.com/UUy8Xvz.png http://i.imgur.com/UUy8Xvz.png For the 4.5GW of wind installations that came online in 2014, the average capacity factor is above 40%. For 1/6 of the projects, they're above 45%. When we go to 140+ meter hub heights, NREL expects the best projects to have capacity factors of 60-65%: http://i.imgur.com/ebfPQYD.jpg http://i.imgur.com/ebfPQYD.jpg Nuclear obviously kills that with 92+% factors, but coal and natural gas plants are right there near 60%.. we're really on the precipice in the best possible way.
- philipkglass 10y ago
  That's a good point too, and the happy surprise of recent low prices for new offshore wind projects indicates that wind will remain competitive in many scenarios.

davedx 10y ago

Keep in mind wind CF's are still increasing as the world moves more to offshore wind farms with taller turbine heights. See for example the new Burbo Bank extension off Liverpool. Dong Energy tweeted me this when asked about their Vestas CF's there: https://twitter.com/DONGEnergy/status/775692082497351680 https://twitter.com/DONGEnergy/status/775692082497351680 "In general it is fair to assume a capacity factor of app. 50% for new wind farms at good sites."

mikeyouse 10y ago
One of my favorite charts: http://i.imgur.com/UUy8Xvz.png http://i.imgur.com/UUy8Xvz.png For the 4.5GW of wind installations that came online in 2014, the average capacity factor is above 40%. For 1/6 of the projects, they're above 45%. When we go to 140+ meter hub heights, NREL expects the best projects to have capacity factors of 60-65%: http://i.imgur.com/ebfPQYD.jpg http://i.imgur.com/ebfPQYD.jpg Nuclear obviously kills that with 92+% factors, but coal and natural gas plants are right there near 60%.. we're really on the precipice in the best possible way.
philipkglass 10y ago
That's a good point too, and the happy surprise of recent low prices for new offshore wind projects indicates that wind will remain competitive in many scenarios.