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I feel like this is a stunt. Drone delivery only works with customers that have private backyards - so won't work in a city, since the payload is unsecured afte

I feel like this is a stunt. Drone delivery only works with customers that have private backyards - so won't work in a city, since the payload is unsecured after the drones drop it off. In a suburban/rural context, density is lower, meaning that with the limited range of drones, distribution centers won't be able to take advantage of density. Thus the range of products available at each distribution center will be much lower (it's much more efficient from an inventory/logistics standpoint to have one distribution center in midtown Manhattan with many products, rather than many distribution centers spread across the suburbs of NYC, say), forcing customers to choose from a given list of a few hundred products. Drone delivery is thus high convenience, ultra-high speed, low volume, high cost -- but more importantly, a low-choice process. What kind of things will you buy from a list that you need delivered within 30 minutes?

davidverhasselt 10y ago
I can see drones being used in cities to dump packages into the top of packet vending machines that already exist, that open up with a PIN code. It'd be much easier too because the route can be hardcoded towards the machine.
- kuschku 10y ago
  That's a good idea. Combine it with a DHL Packstation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packstation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packstation in every building, or, in more suburbian areas, every street, and you solved deliveries.
- petra 10y ago
  In cities, delivery drivers ship 600 packages/day into packet vending machines, vs only 60 regular delivery, and regular deliveries via usps cost less than $2 for amazon., So i don't think a drone , in this high density case could offer much savings.
elahd 10y ago
>so won't work in a city, since the payload is unsecured after the drones drop it off My building's roof is at least as secure as its lobby.
- tantalor 10y ago
  Generally you are prohibited from accessing your building's roof unless it has a patio.
  - elahd 10y ago
    If drone delivery becomes an actual thing, roof access for package pickup will be offered as an amenity. Services like Fresh Direct have prompted doorman buildings in NYC to start offering cold storage rooms to keep produce fresh until pickup.
- 51Cards 10y ago
  From everyone else in your building? What's top stop the guy in 5B going "Hey... package... thanks" I see a huge uptick in stolen packages. Heck the drones themselves would make a nice parts source flying free over the city. Just have to pick off a couple of them now and then. I think the point when this becomes in any way practical is really really far off. Interesting demo for sure but pretty sure I'll never have something delivered this way in my lifetime.
  - jonknee 10y ago
    A lot of buildings already do that with packages that are delivered to the front door, I doubt in building neighbors stealing your stuff will be an issue.
    - elahd 10y ago
      Yeah, this. UPS/FedEx/USPS just leave packages in the lobby of non-doorman buildings. People tend to respect other people's packages and security cameras help enforce honesty. In years of living in Manhattan I've only had one package go missing -- turned out that it was stolen by the UPS driver (new iPhone on release day in a Verizon branded box).
FroshKiller 10y ago
I live in an urban area in the US. UPS, FedEx, and the USPS all drop my packages off unsecured at my front door as it is. What difference does it make whether it's a person in a truck or a drone doing it? As an Amazon Prime member, I sometimes use Prime Now to get deliveries made in two hours from a limited selection of products, and that requires a minimum order and a delivery surcharge. It's still a great option that I take advantage of. I have to imagine I would also take advantage of an even faster drone delivery option for some things: snacks when I haven't gone shopping and have people coming over (and I can't be bothered to go out to do proper shopping beforehand), the odd household item I need but don't feel like driving to pick up, etc. The "not driving" part is the key for me personally. I don't really like risking life and limb to buy potato chips.
- Zombieball 10y ago
  You nailed it. People frequently point out the unattended delivery aspect or talk about shooting drones from the air to get "free" packages. At the end of the day it's a lot easier for theieves to just follow the UPS truck. I am still waiting for Prime Now in Vancouver!
- John23832 10y ago
  USP, FedEx and the USPS all leave your packages in unsecured areas. These drones would have to literally drop your packages off in a city. Those are very different actions. The logistics of even getting close enough to the ground to not obliterate your package, in an open enough area, while avoiding people and other obstacles (both stationary and moving) is a nonstarter for even small cities imo. Good luck in NYC.
  - FroshKiller 10y ago
    You're overstating the dropping thing. I've had shipments with plenty of rough deliveries and rougher trips in the truck on the way to be delivered. Being carried in the air and lightly dropped from 10 or 20 feet off the ground isn't going to hurt my Blu-Ray copy of Captain America: Civil War. I think when you guys say "cities," you're talking about some kind of nonexistent arcology of mile-high cyberpunk buildings where each tenant lives in 50 square feet. I live in a city, mere minutes from downtown, in a town home that is neither big nor fancy nor isolated. There is ample space to fly right up to my door step without ever coming close to any person or vehicle that could conceivably be close to my front door unless someone were standing in front of my front door, and even then, I'd probably lay out my special RFID-enabled chartreuse drone delivery area designation mat on my back deck instead or whatever. It's not a hard problem. All the hard parts have been solved. It's mostly legal now.
beachstartup 10y ago
many urban buildings have rooftop access. having a landing pad (could be nothing more than a rubber mat with a giant QR code on it) would be workable if the resident can confirm a delivery time to be on the roof. or they could leave the package there, if the building residents use it like a shared mail area. having said all that this idea of drones flying around all over the place semiautonomously is crazy to me. maybe i'm getting old.
- snrplfth 10y ago
  This is a good point. Drones will probably be used for very prompt delivery. So the problem of unsecured packages will probably not be that important, for the same reasons that the problem of unsecured delivered pizzas is not that important.
ekzy 10y ago
> won't work in a city You could have a kind of platform coming out of your front window (not necessarily for it to land, but to receive the package). Now imagine it would be fully automated, as the drone approach, the platform comes out or open, receives the items, comes back in. The mailbox of the future. We call it the iPost, and we think you're gonna love it
- niftich 10y ago
  A fold-down package-and-letter receipt platform is a great idea. If only names like iPad, Mailnet, Box Net weren't taken.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
manmal 10y ago
In the future, I can imagine having drop off zones (one for every block, e.g. upgraded food/newspaper kiosks in very high density areas), where you can gather your packages if you provide the correct code/QR image. Or even pay only if and when you pick it up? I can already order groceries online and pick them up myself for a small fee, here in Austria. Using drones would just take it farther and quicker, and I would have a lot more choices available. USB-C adapter I need for my new MacBook RIGHT NOW? Check. That new book? Check. Exotic batteries for my audio equipment? Yep.
- ant6n 10y ago
  You mean I have to leave my building?!
  - manmal 10y ago
    How else would you retrieve a drone delivered package on the 6th floor with a balcony too small to land on?
    - ant6n 10y ago
      Roof
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
mikeash 10y ago
I noticed that their first customer lives in the wilderness and the package got delivered a substantial distance from his house. I'm sure that will get better with time, but for right now it definitely seems stunt-like. I guess they have to start somewhere.
jtolmar 10y ago
In Seattle, at least, it's very common for apartments to have tiny private balconies. If a drone can deliver to one of those, it will be more convenient than trying to deal with the average apartment complex's mailroom.
- sqeaky 10y ago
  This sounds interesting but there are at least some problems to overcome to make it practical. How does the drone identify apartment 5b from 4c? Most balconies like that in my area (Omaha) have another balcony on the next floor up in roughly the same size and shape. How reliable are the flight algorithms when dealing with cielings? How does that affect airflow? What happens when a drone gets the wrong balcony? What happens when a drone delivery is canceled because of patio furniture, potted plants, incorrect patio dimension from the local record keepers or whatever other problem with a private landing platform? None of these are insurmountable, they just haven't been surmounted yet.
  - jtolmar 10y ago
    My preferred solution for a variety of these is that you buy a transmitter from Amazon, and the drone tries to home in on it once it gets to your address. The ideal transmitter would be wide and flat, so the drone can just drop packages on it, and so any place you could fit it also has a reasonable chance of having enough clearance. You could incentivize buying them using the same mechanics as Amazon's dash buttons. Doesn't help with complex patio furniture though, and ceilings are a genuinely hard problem. (Most apartments in Seattle are like that too.)
    - sqeaky 10y ago
      The thing could even fold up for easy storage. If it could unfold to be a square a meter in size (or a bit larger) then Amazon could get even to the point where they land or hover just above. It could have tiny legs and the actual target area could be a foot above the ground and it could be a net (so the wind the drone makes blows through harmlessly). Then it can catch a package dropped from a few feet. Amazon, you have my written permission to use this idea and sell me this product.
Spooky23 10y ago
Suburban or low density neighborhoods are the most expensive delivery points for a courier like UPS. It makes no sense in dense urban environments in the same sense that storage lockers don't make sense in the burbs.
cle 10y ago
Do you think Amazon is going to release this and stop working on it? Of course not. This is a logical first step.
Guest98123 10y ago
Cities seem like the easiest challenge to tackle. Amazon could work with commercial and residential high rises and put a dock on their rooftops. So, the drone approaches the building rooftop, puts the package in the docking area (that keeps out poor weather), and then flies away. One of the receptionists could then get a notification of a new package, pick it up, and either put it in the appropriate mailbox, or hold it at the desk. Want to get more advanced and efficient? When your package is delivered, Amazon sends you an access key to the dock. You can now go to the rooftop, type in your access key, and get access to the room to get your package. After it's claimed, your access key expires. This means only people with packages inside the dock have access. Yes, technically if you get a package delivered, you could access the room, and steal a package from someone else. However, there would likely be a camera in the room, and there's a record of you having access, so I can't see it being an issue. You could offset the risk even more by having 10 compartments in the docking area, so there's a 10x less chance of someone else having access to the same compartment. Right now I walk through my modern condo and see packages sitting in front of doors, in hallways without cameras, and there isn't a problem. There might be 1,000 people living in a high rise, or thousands working in one. It would be easy to get tens of thousands of people access to air deliveries at home and work with a dozen docks. It's also a great selling point for offices and condos. "Our building allows you to receive air deliveries."
- pkroll 10y ago
  A rooftop of a residential high rise isn't a place filled with machinery, it's patio space. The whole top floor is either one or two apartments, has 14' high ceilings, and the very richest live there. They're not gonna want Amazon to land a drone in the middle of their party, nor have anyone come up to say Hi and pick up a package.
  - Guest98123 10y ago
    That's simply not true. Take a look at Google maps and you'll realize the vast majority of residential high rises are actually filled with equipment, huge fans, loud air-conditioners and empty space. Most have terraces and pools on lower floors, and most penthouses don't have rooftop access. For example, look at the below image of high rise condos in Chicago. They're all filled with heavy equipment. They're not filled with the super rich having extravagant cocktail parties. http://i.imgur.com/QC8rakm.jpg http://i.imgur.com/QC8rakm.jpg
heisnotanalien 10y ago
They ordered a fire tv and popcorn. Of course it's a stunt!
erikpukinskis 10y ago
Why does this argument keep coming up? "This product will fail because less than 100% of people can make use of it" I see the same thing all the time for electric cars: "Won't work, because not everyone has a garage for charging". What new product ever had an addressable market of 6 billion people on launch? Do people not realize that you can still have a successful product even if your market is limited to 100 million customers?

davidverhasselt 10y ago

I can see drones being used in cities to dump packages into the top of packet vending machines that already exist, that open up with a PIN code. It'd be much easier too because the route can be hardcoded towards the machine.

kuschku 10y ago
That's a good idea. Combine it with a DHL Packstation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packstation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packstation in every building, or, in more suburbian areas, every street, and you solved deliveries.
petra 10y ago
In cities, delivery drivers ship 600 packages/day into packet vending machines, vs only 60 regular delivery, and regular deliveries via usps cost less than $2 for amazon., So i don't think a drone , in this high density case could offer much savings.

elahd 10y ago

>so won't work in a city, since the payload is unsecured after the drones drop it off My building's roof is at least as secure as its lobby.

tantalor 10y ago
Generally you are prohibited from accessing your building's roof unless it has a patio.
- elahd 10y ago
  If drone delivery becomes an actual thing, roof access for package pickup will be offered as an amenity. Services like Fresh Direct have prompted doorman buildings in NYC to start offering cold storage rooms to keep produce fresh until pickup.
51Cards 10y ago
From everyone else in your building? What's top stop the guy in 5B going "Hey... package... thanks" I see a huge uptick in stolen packages. Heck the drones themselves would make a nice parts source flying free over the city. Just have to pick off a couple of them now and then. I think the point when this becomes in any way practical is really really far off. Interesting demo for sure but pretty sure I'll never have something delivered this way in my lifetime.
- jonknee 10y ago
  A lot of buildings already do that with packages that are delivered to the front door, I doubt in building neighbors stealing your stuff will be an issue.
  - elahd 10y ago
    Yeah, this. UPS/FedEx/USPS just leave packages in the lobby of non-doorman buildings. People tend to respect other people's packages and security cameras help enforce honesty. In years of living in Manhattan I've only had one package go missing -- turned out that it was stolen by the UPS driver (new iPhone on release day in a Verizon branded box).

FroshKiller 10y ago

I live in an urban area in the US. UPS, FedEx, and the USPS all drop my packages off unsecured at my front door as it is. What difference does it make whether it's a person in a truck or a drone doing it? As an Amazon Prime member, I sometimes use Prime Now to get deliveries made in two hours from a limited selection of products, and that requires a minimum order and a delivery surcharge. It's still a great option that I take advantage of. I have to imagine I would also take advantage of an even faster drone delivery option for some things: snacks when I haven't gone shopping and have people coming over (and I can't be bothered to go out to do proper shopping beforehand), the odd household item I need but don't feel like driving to pick up, etc. The "not driving" part is the key for me personally. I don't really like risking life and limb to buy potato chips.

Zombieball 10y ago
You nailed it. People frequently point out the unattended delivery aspect or talk about shooting drones from the air to get "free" packages. At the end of the day it's a lot easier for theieves to just follow the UPS truck. I am still waiting for Prime Now in Vancouver!
John23832 10y ago
USP, FedEx and the USPS all leave your packages in unsecured areas. These drones would have to literally drop your packages off in a city. Those are very different actions. The logistics of even getting close enough to the ground to not obliterate your package, in an open enough area, while avoiding people and other obstacles (both stationary and moving) is a nonstarter for even small cities imo. Good luck in NYC.
- FroshKiller 10y ago
  You're overstating the dropping thing. I've had shipments with plenty of rough deliveries and rougher trips in the truck on the way to be delivered. Being carried in the air and lightly dropped from 10 or 20 feet off the ground isn't going to hurt my Blu-Ray copy of Captain America: Civil War. I think when you guys say "cities," you're talking about some kind of nonexistent arcology of mile-high cyberpunk buildings where each tenant lives in 50 square feet. I live in a city, mere minutes from downtown, in a town home that is neither big nor fancy nor isolated. There is ample space to fly right up to my door step without ever coming close to any person or vehicle that could conceivably be close to my front door unless someone were standing in front of my front door, and even then, I'd probably lay out my special RFID-enabled chartreuse drone delivery area designation mat on my back deck instead or whatever. It's not a hard problem. All the hard parts have been solved. It's mostly legal now.

beachstartup 10y ago

many urban buildings have rooftop access. having a landing pad (could be nothing more than a rubber mat with a giant QR code on it) would be workable if the resident can confirm a delivery time to be on the roof. or they could leave the package there, if the building residents use it like a shared mail area. having said all that this idea of drones flying around all over the place semiautonomously is crazy to me. maybe i'm getting old.

snrplfth 10y ago
This is a good point. Drones will probably be used for very prompt delivery. So the problem of unsecured packages will probably not be that important, for the same reasons that the problem of unsecured delivered pizzas is not that important.

ekzy 10y ago

> won't work in a city You could have a kind of platform coming out of your front window (not necessarily for it to land, but to receive the package). Now imagine it would be fully automated, as the drone approach, the platform comes out or open, receives the items, comes back in. The mailbox of the future. We call it the iPost, and we think you're gonna love it

niftich 10y ago
A fold-down package-and-letter receipt platform is a great idea. If only names like iPad, Mailnet, Box Net weren't taken.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

manmal 10y ago

In the future, I can imagine having drop off zones (one for every block, e.g. upgraded food/newspaper kiosks in very high density areas), where you can gather your packages if you provide the correct code/QR image. Or even pay only if and when you pick it up? I can already order groceries online and pick them up myself for a small fee, here in Austria. Using drones would just take it farther and quicker, and I would have a lot more choices available. USB-C adapter I need for my new MacBook RIGHT NOW? Check. That new book? Check. Exotic batteries for my audio equipment? Yep.

ant6n 10y ago
You mean I have to leave my building?!
- manmal 10y ago
  How else would you retrieve a drone delivered package on the 6th floor with a balcony too small to land on?
  - ant6n 10y ago
    Roof
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

mikeash 10y ago

I noticed that their first customer lives in the wilderness and the package got delivered a substantial distance from his house. I'm sure that will get better with time, but for right now it definitely seems stunt-like. I guess they have to start somewhere.

jtolmar 10y ago

In Seattle, at least, it's very common for apartments to have tiny private balconies. If a drone can deliver to one of those, it will be more convenient than trying to deal with the average apartment complex's mailroom.

sqeaky 10y ago
This sounds interesting but there are at least some problems to overcome to make it practical. How does the drone identify apartment 5b from 4c? Most balconies like that in my area (Omaha) have another balcony on the next floor up in roughly the same size and shape. How reliable are the flight algorithms when dealing with cielings? How does that affect airflow? What happens when a drone gets the wrong balcony? What happens when a drone delivery is canceled because of patio furniture, potted plants, incorrect patio dimension from the local record keepers or whatever other problem with a private landing platform? None of these are insurmountable, they just haven't been surmounted yet.
- jtolmar 10y ago
  My preferred solution for a variety of these is that you buy a transmitter from Amazon, and the drone tries to home in on it once it gets to your address. The ideal transmitter would be wide and flat, so the drone can just drop packages on it, and so any place you could fit it also has a reasonable chance of having enough clearance. You could incentivize buying them using the same mechanics as Amazon's dash buttons. Doesn't help with complex patio furniture though, and ceilings are a genuinely hard problem. (Most apartments in Seattle are like that too.)
  - sqeaky 10y ago
    The thing could even fold up for easy storage. If it could unfold to be a square a meter in size (or a bit larger) then Amazon could get even to the point where they land or hover just above. It could have tiny legs and the actual target area could be a foot above the ground and it could be a net (so the wind the drone makes blows through harmlessly). Then it can catch a package dropped from a few feet. Amazon, you have my written permission to use this idea and sell me this product.

Spooky23 10y ago

Suburban or low density neighborhoods are the most expensive delivery points for a courier like UPS. It makes no sense in dense urban environments in the same sense that storage lockers don't make sense in the burbs.

cle 10y ago

Do you think Amazon is going to release this and stop working on it? Of course not. This is a logical first step.

Guest98123 10y ago

Cities seem like the easiest challenge to tackle. Amazon could work with commercial and residential high rises and put a dock on their rooftops. So, the drone approaches the building rooftop, puts the package in the docking area (that keeps out poor weather), and then flies away. One of the receptionists could then get a notification of a new package, pick it up, and either put it in the appropriate mailbox, or hold it at the desk. Want to get more advanced and efficient? When your package is delivered, Amazon sends you an access key to the dock. You can now go to the rooftop, type in your access key, and get access to the room to get your package. After it's claimed, your access key expires. This means only people with packages inside the dock have access. Yes, technically if you get a package delivered, you could access the room, and steal a package from someone else. However, there would likely be a camera in the room, and there's a record of you having access, so I can't see it being an issue. You could offset the risk even more by having 10 compartments in the docking area, so there's a 10x less chance of someone else having access to the same compartment. Right now I walk through my modern condo and see packages sitting in front of doors, in hallways without cameras, and there isn't a problem. There might be 1,000 people living in a high rise, or thousands working in one. It would be easy to get tens of thousands of people access to air deliveries at home and work with a dozen docks. It's also a great selling point for offices and condos. "Our building allows you to receive air deliveries."

pkroll 10y ago
A rooftop of a residential high rise isn't a place filled with machinery, it's patio space. The whole top floor is either one or two apartments, has 14' high ceilings, and the very richest live there. They're not gonna want Amazon to land a drone in the middle of their party, nor have anyone come up to say Hi and pick up a package.
- Guest98123 10y ago
  That's simply not true. Take a look at Google maps and you'll realize the vast majority of residential high rises are actually filled with equipment, huge fans, loud air-conditioners and empty space. Most have terraces and pools on lower floors, and most penthouses don't have rooftop access. For example, look at the below image of high rise condos in Chicago. They're all filled with heavy equipment. They're not filled with the super rich having extravagant cocktail parties. http://i.imgur.com/QC8rakm.jpg http://i.imgur.com/QC8rakm.jpg

heisnotanalien 10y ago

They ordered a fire tv and popcorn. Of course it's a stunt!

erikpukinskis 10y ago

Why does this argument keep coming up? "This product will fail because less than 100% of people can make use of it" I see the same thing all the time for electric cars: "Won't work, because not everyone has a garage for charging". What new product ever had an addressable market of 6 billion people on launch? Do people not realize that you can still have a successful product even if your market is limited to 100 million customers?