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And how many projections about world population have been overshot through out the past 50 years? Oh yeah thats right, all of them. As long as we have religion

by EJTH 10y ago

And how many projections about world population have been overshot through out the past 50 years? Oh yeah thats right, all of them. As long as we have religions that advocate mindless reproduction just to keep their dominance, you will never end the acceleration of human reproduction. Most humans want kids, its in our nature, but if all humans have 10 kids each, and they get 10 each... etc etc. you will come to the realization that growth in human population is unstoppable without some cataclysmic event or totalitarian master/slave society where only the top gets to reproduce. I pick the indiscriminatory cataclysmic event any day over elitist governance over the right for reproduction.

Mithaldu 10y ago
Can't be arsed to make an effort post now, but you're overlooking the effects education, healthcare and wealth distribution have on controlling amounts of children without any sort of force required. Gapminder provides a tool to explore this data on your own, and one of its founders, Hans Rosling, has made many videos explaining it in an accessible fashion.
maxerickson 10y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Greiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Greiling In a book written in 1954, predicted that climate change would become urgent in 1990, predicted population peak of 9 billion which is similar to current estimates, predicted the peak would happen this century. He'll probably end up proven wrong in the end, but by years and hundreds of millions rather than centuries and billions.
EJTH 10y ago
"effects education, healthcare and wealth distribution have on controlling amounts of children without any sort of force required." That effect is virtually non existing when it comes to arab and middle eastern immigrants in Europe...
- maxerickson 10y ago
  Do you know of a good reference for the generational fertility of immigrants to Europe? In the US second generation immigrants have fertility much closer to that of the population at large than first generation immigrants. (so you could expect that people moving to the US have less grandchildren and so on than people that stay in countries with higher fertility rates; their emigration reduces the velocity of global population growth...)
  - EJTH 10y ago
    No unfortunately there is not complete data, not for my country at least because we only keep track of immigrants in the first two generations, then they are considered "danish". All though new evidence suggests that 3rd generation is much more religious, criminal etc. though I have seen no statistics about how many children 3rd generation "non western" immigrants have. You can read all about the fertility rate and population growth in Denmark in this PDF: http://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=19004&sid=indv http://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=190... This is official danish statistics, if it doesn't change, we will be a muslim country in a century or so. (Keep in mind that the PDF is pre-refugee crisis)
- emodendroket 10y ago
  Immigrants also generally have higher fertility than native-born people; at least that is the case in the US. But that effect doesn't seem to last into their US-born children
- Mithaldu 10y ago
  To respond to posts directly when they have no reply link, click the timestamp, then respond there.
retro64 10y ago
Funny, I was just researching this very thing this morning. I don't think it's as bad as you may believe. Here are a couple of quick links that contain all the data you may want on the current understanding of population growth. This one is full of data and graphs. The population rate of growth is declining and shows an expected peak in 2100 of 10 Billion people. https://ourworldindata.org/future-world-population-growth/ https://ourworldindata.org/future-world-population-growth/ This one is more fun and shows the real time population and breaks it down into countries. It’s scary and fascinating to watch India’s population steadily ticking upward relative to pretty much every other country. So if the population eventually tapers, it will not be an even distribution (no surprise). Where will the people in India go, I wonder? If you scroll down to “World Population by Country” and look at the migrants rate, it appears net migration is out of India, higher than any other country, but not high enough to compensate for the growth. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

by EJTH 10y ago

Mithaldu 10y ago

Can't be arsed to make an effort post now, but you're overlooking the effects education, healthcare and wealth distribution have on controlling amounts of children without any sort of force required. Gapminder provides a tool to explore this data on your own, and one of its founders, Hans Rosling, has made many videos explaining it in an accessible fashion.

maxerickson 10y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Greiling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Greiling In a book written in 1954, predicted that climate change would become urgent in 1990, predicted population peak of 9 billion which is similar to current estimates, predicted the peak would happen this century. He'll probably end up proven wrong in the end, but by years and hundreds of millions rather than centuries and billions.

EJTH 10y ago

"effects education, healthcare and wealth distribution have on controlling amounts of children without any sort of force required." That effect is virtually non existing when it comes to arab and middle eastern immigrants in Europe...

maxerickson 10y ago
Do you know of a good reference for the generational fertility of immigrants to Europe? In the US second generation immigrants have fertility much closer to that of the population at large than first generation immigrants. (so you could expect that people moving to the US have less grandchildren and so on than people that stay in countries with higher fertility rates; their emigration reduces the velocity of global population growth...)
- EJTH 10y ago
  No unfortunately there is not complete data, not for my country at least because we only keep track of immigrants in the first two generations, then they are considered "danish". All though new evidence suggests that 3rd generation is much more religious, criminal etc. though I have seen no statistics about how many children 3rd generation "non western" immigrants have. You can read all about the fertility rate and population growth in Denmark in this PDF: http://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=19004&sid=indv http://www.dst.dk/Site/Dst/Udgivelser/GetPubFile.aspx?id=190... This is official danish statistics, if it doesn't change, we will be a muslim country in a century or so. (Keep in mind that the PDF is pre-refugee crisis)
emodendroket 10y ago
Immigrants also generally have higher fertility than native-born people; at least that is the case in the US. But that effect doesn't seem to last into their US-born children
Mithaldu 10y ago
To respond to posts directly when they have no reply link, click the timestamp, then respond there.

retro64 10y ago

Funny, I was just researching this very thing this morning. I don't think it's as bad as you may believe. Here are a couple of quick links that contain all the data you may want on the current understanding of population growth. This one is full of data and graphs. The population rate of growth is declining and shows an expected peak in 2100 of 10 Billion people. https://ourworldindata.org/future-world-population-growth/ https://ourworldindata.org/future-world-population-growth/ This one is more fun and shows the real time population and breaks it down into countries. It’s scary and fascinating to watch India’s population steadily ticking upward relative to pretty much every other country. So if the population eventually tapers, it will not be an even distribution (no surprise). Where will the people in India go, I wonder? If you scroll down to “World Population by Country” and look at the migrants rate, it appears net migration is out of India, higher than any other country, but not high enough to compensate for the growth. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/