4 ms·

I would have said 30 years, and I thought I was the optimist :) Anyway I hope you're right and I'm wrong!

• Filligree 10y ago
  That's not a thing to hope for. We haven't solved the value alignment problem, so the longer until we have human or better-than-human AI, the better.
  • gallerdude 10y ago
    Theory - does empathy rise with intelligence?
    • Filligree 10y ago
      There's no reason to think it does, and plenty of reason to think it shouldn't. We have a fairly good reason of why humans have empathy; it has to do with our evolution as a social species.
  • zardo 10y ago
    On the other hand, the longer it takes to find general AI, the more powerful hardware will be when it is found.
• crazypyro 10y ago
  Compared to researchers in the field, even your prediction is very optimistic.
  • thibauts 10y ago
    Can you provide references ? I'd like to know what researchers think about it.
    • chriswarbo 10y ago
      There are a few sources at https://intelligence.org/all-publications/ https://intelligence.org/all-publications/ Click on "FC Forecasting" near the top to limit the list to those about AI predictions, including: - The Errors, Insights and Lessons of Famous AI Predictions - and What They Mean for the Future - Predicting AGI: What Can We Say When We Know So Little? - How We're Predicting AI - or Failing To
      • deleted 10y ago
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