4 ms·
Out of curiosity: how far away do you think we are?
by hmate9 10y ago
Out of curiosity: how far away do you think we are?
- gallerdude 10y agoI'll say... 5 - 7 years. This is all based on pure speculation, and being a little more than a ML hobbiest. One thing is for sure though - when we do reach that point, everything changes forever.
- hmate9 10y agoI would have said 30 years, and I thought I was the optimist :) Anyway I hope you're right and I'm wrong!
- Filligree 10y agoThat's not a thing to hope for. We haven't solved the value alignment problem, so the longer until we have human or better-than-human AI, the better.
- gallerdude 10y agoTheory - does empathy rise with intelligence?
- Filligree 10y agoThere's no reason to think it does, and plenty of reason to think it shouldn't. We have a fairly good reason of why humans have empathy; it has to do with our evolution as a social species.
- zardo 10y agoOn the other hand, the longer it takes to find general AI, the more powerful hardware will be when it is found.
- crazypyro 10y agoCompared to researchers in the field, even your prediction is very optimistic.
- thibauts 10y agoCan you provide references ? I'd like to know what researchers think about it.
- chriswarbo 10y agoThere are a few sources at https://intelligence.org/all-publications/ https://intelligence.org/all-publications/ Click on "FC Forecasting" near the top to limit the list to those about AI predictions, including: - The Errors, Insights and Lessons of Famous AI Predictions - and What They Mean for the Future - Predicting AGI: What Can We Say When We Know So Little? - How We're Predicting AI - or Failing To
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- spynxic 10y agoI'm immensely confused as to how such a number can be put on a discovery. Then again.. I also don't understand how researchers come up with a yearly budget for making discoveries.
- gallerdude 10y agoMy number is based on raw-nothingness and just pure speculation on my part. I'm by no means an expert in any regard.