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The decision makers in big auto are around 10y from their retirement. Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with

The decision makers in big auto are around 10y from their retirement. Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with an O&G company: everyone knows they should pivot for the sake of the next generation. On the other hand, upper echelons just want to simplify their life. Now it's the labor unions that are pushing german auto makers over the EV cliff. Ironically, they have the greatest incentives to innovate/follow. It's bothering though, that redundancies will be massive no matter what exactly they do about EVs. Can anyone offer a growth perspective for that sector (=not some kind of UBI vision)? My initial thoughts were space. But this is not really were to retool design prowess and factories either.

mywittyname 10y ago
> Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with an O&G company: everyone knows they should pivot for the sake of the next generation. Honestly, I think the issue is that auto execs and the general public have very different views of the world. From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on. They already spend a ton of money investing in EVs and the general public doesn't care about their EV offerings and they barely sell. The general public seem to hold Telsa up on this pedestal of innovation and point to them as an example of how automakers need to be if they don't want to be seen as dinosaurs. But I bet if you talked to Mark Fields, he'd say something along the lines of, "Nobody is going to buy an $80,000 Ford EV." The general public is clearly not interested in actually buying EVs right now. Heck, they don't even like hybrids. Instead Americans are happily buying pickup trucks and crossovers, then complaining about about a company's lack of innovation. Ford has the biggest lineup of EVs (with a sedan, van, and compact hatchback offering) and probably the best availability of EVs in the USA, yet they only moved 24,000 EVs this year. Telsa moved about 38,000 Models S & X in the same time period. Total USA EVs sales were a hair over 133,000. This is in a country where pickup trucks easily sell over a half-million units a year and a beige family sedan will move 200,000. So I don't feel like the large automakers are reluctant to adopt EVs for any other reason besides the fact that the market needs decades of double-digit percent grow in order to support more than two key players.
- jseliger 10y ago
  From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on EVs have been a niche market and will stop being niche the moment they can be made at mass scale and consumer pricing. This shift is likely to happen with surprising quickness: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13039490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13039490.
  - mywittyname 10y ago
    I'm not sure the evidence suggests that price is the limiting factor for EV adoption. http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ The best selling EV is also one of the more expensive options. As is the third best selling. And there are lots of BMWs selling as many units as Fiats and Kias. The current market for EVs seems to be full of luxury or image-conscious buyers. Probably due to other factors that limit EV adoption, like needing to own a garage with a charger.
- yardie 10y ago
  Have you looked at the Fird Fusion Energi? The trunk is just large enough to fit a pair of shoes. This car was clearly an afterthought. That they could shove the battery in any place and get away with it. No one wants to put down a serious amount of money for an afterthought. I see the current generation of EVs he same as early desktop computing. Clearly it's getting there but it's still too expensive for the common person.
  - maxsilver 10y ago
    Yeah, this is such a huge issue it's worth mentioning twice. When it comes to EVs, Ford's efforts are afterthoughts at best. They just take their existing hybrids, drop a underpowered-and-oversized battery in the trunk, and ship it to California. It's easy to have the biggest lineup (in terms of number of models) when you aren't actually putting any thought or effort into the EV portion of any of the vehicles. Ford doesn't really make EVs, they make compliance cars. Chevy has plenty of issues too (the Spark EV, for instance). But in contrast to Ford, Chevy also sells some real EVs. It's immediately obvious that someone at Chevy spent more than 5 minutes thinking through the Volt / Bolt as an electric vehicle for people who really want an electric vehicle (and not just a compliance car) before it was shipped, which does not seem to be true of Ford's offerings so far.

mywittyname 10y ago

> Reluctance makes sense for them. It's similar to the consulting project I had at uni with an O&G company: everyone knows they should pivot for the sake of the next generation. Honestly, I think the issue is that auto execs and the general public have very different views of the world. From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on. They already spend a ton of money investing in EVs and the general public doesn't care about their EV offerings and they barely sell. The general public seem to hold Telsa up on this pedestal of innovation and point to them as an example of how automakers need to be if they don't want to be seen as dinosaurs. But I bet if you talked to Mark Fields, he'd say something along the lines of, "Nobody is going to buy an $80,000 Ford EV." The general public is clearly not interested in actually buying EVs right now. Heck, they don't even like hybrids. Instead Americans are happily buying pickup trucks and crossovers, then complaining about about a company's lack of innovation. Ford has the biggest lineup of EVs (with a sedan, van, and compact hatchback offering) and probably the best availability of EVs in the USA, yet they only moved 24,000 EVs this year. Telsa moved about 38,000 Models S & X in the same time period. Total USA EVs sales were a hair over 133,000. This is in a country where pickup trucks easily sell over a half-million units a year and a beige family sedan will move 200,000. So I don't feel like the large automakers are reluctant to adopt EVs for any other reason besides the fact that the market needs decades of double-digit percent grow in order to support more than two key players.

jseliger 10y ago
From an executives perspective, EVs are an over-saturated, incredibly niche market that's nearly impossible to make money on EVs have been a niche market and will stop being niche the moment they can be made at mass scale and consumer pricing. This shift is likely to happen with surprising quickness: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13039490 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13039490.
- mywittyname 10y ago
  I'm not sure the evidence suggests that price is the limiting factor for EV adoption. http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ The best selling EV is also one of the more expensive options. As is the third best selling. And there are lots of BMWs selling as many units as Fiats and Kias. The current market for EVs seems to be full of luxury or image-conscious buyers. Probably due to other factors that limit EV adoption, like needing to own a garage with a charger.
yardie 10y ago
Have you looked at the Fird Fusion Energi? The trunk is just large enough to fit a pair of shoes. This car was clearly an afterthought. That they could shove the battery in any place and get away with it. No one wants to put down a serious amount of money for an afterthought. I see the current generation of EVs he same as early desktop computing. Clearly it's getting there but it's still too expensive for the common person.
- maxsilver 10y ago
  Yeah, this is such a huge issue it's worth mentioning twice. When it comes to EVs, Ford's efforts are afterthoughts at best. They just take their existing hybrids, drop a underpowered-and-oversized battery in the trunk, and ship it to California. It's easy to have the biggest lineup (in terms of number of models) when you aren't actually putting any thought or effort into the EV portion of any of the vehicles. Ford doesn't really make EVs, they make compliance cars. Chevy has plenty of issues too (the Spark EV, for instance). But in contrast to Ford, Chevy also sells some real EVs. It's immediately obvious that someone at Chevy spent more than 5 minutes thinking through the Volt / Bolt as an electric vehicle for people who really want an electric vehicle (and not just a compliance car) before it was shipped, which does not seem to be true of Ford's offerings so far.