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A lot of comments here and I haven't seen one that addresses the problem of impulsivity. Many / most of the times I need a car are not schedulable events but i

A lot of comments here and I haven't seen one that addresses the problem of impulsivity. Many / most of the times I need a car are not schedulable events but impulses. For example when I'm working on a project around the house, it's typical to need to run up to the hardware store 3 times in a day. I think autonomous transport will be very popular but shared vehicles will be hardly more popular than Uber / taxis are now. If you think that shared autonomous vehicles will be significantly more popular than shared conventional vehicles are today, I'd be interested to hear why. Is it primarily cost savings?

guimarin 10y ago
Yes. most people when confronted with the choice of a cheap shared ride, or the convenience of their own vehicle will choose a cheap shared ride. The cost on a per mile basis, will be close to 10x cheaper. I predict even you will change-over when confronted with that kind of choice. It seems inevitable.
dontreact 10y ago
What about on-demand transportation doesn't meet the needs of your impulse to run to the hardware store? Just call for a car 6 (there and back) times and you won't worry about having to park on either side.
- brwr 10y ago
  I think the concern is more about availability. How long does it take for a car to show up each time OP needs to go to the store? This is a problem with Uber now. I need to be at the airport at 5:00 AM tomorrow morning and I'm just hoping like hell that there will be an Uber around. Most drivers will be home sleeping. Low-volume times like my example above are where autonomous vehicles can shine. Making the economics work during times of high volume is more difficult. You can always buy more cars, but that's just that many more cars you need storage space for outside of peak hours.
brwr 10y ago
I think you may be experiencing recall bias. How do you get to work every day? How often do you go to the grocery store? What about going out to dinner? For myself, living in the Bay Area, anything related to driving or owning a car is a nightmare -- not that that has stopped me from owning a car. Driving from Mountain View to San Mateo takes about 45 minutes in the morning at 75 minutes in the evening. I went to SF to have breakfast with a friend this past weekend and finding parking took half an hour. I'd love a self-driving car that could just drop me at my door. Autonomous cars should also lead to drastic traffic improvements, assuming the cars will eventually be able to communicate with each other in a reliable way. Maybe you live in a less densely-populated area? I have an aunt that lives in a rural area and I couldn't imagine a need or desire for autonomous cars there. There is definitely a long way to go, but think of all the advantages! Parking can be automated and condensed, which means more land is available for buildings or parks or anything else. If you suffer from traffic problems now, your daily commute could be cut by 50% or more. Shared vehicles should cost less than what you pay for gas and insurance now. High availability is a real possibility if someone can figure out how to make the economics work. Ride sharing can be almost completely automated, leading to less pollution.
- riprowan 10y ago
  I don't think you read my comment clearly. I think autonomous cars are going to be quite popular, but I don't understand how that necessarily leads to shared instead of privately owned autonomous cars.
  - brwr 10y ago
    Ah. We might be talking past each other. Looking back, a number of the advantages I mentioned are inherent in having self-driving cars. But the benefits compound when we have shared self-driving cars. Example: Traffic is improved with self-driving cars because most traffic jams are caused by humans. However, traffic is improved even more when carpooling is automated with a shared self-driving fleet. Shared autonomous cars will become popular as these compounded benefits are realized.
    - 10y ago

guimarin 10y ago

Yes. most people when confronted with the choice of a cheap shared ride, or the convenience of their own vehicle will choose a cheap shared ride. The cost on a per mile basis, will be close to 10x cheaper. I predict even you will change-over when confronted with that kind of choice. It seems inevitable.

dontreact 10y ago

What about on-demand transportation doesn't meet the needs of your impulse to run to the hardware store? Just call for a car 6 (there and back) times and you won't worry about having to park on either side.

brwr 10y ago
I think the concern is more about availability. How long does it take for a car to show up each time OP needs to go to the store? This is a problem with Uber now. I need to be at the airport at 5:00 AM tomorrow morning and I'm just hoping like hell that there will be an Uber around. Most drivers will be home sleeping. Low-volume times like my example above are where autonomous vehicles can shine. Making the economics work during times of high volume is more difficult. You can always buy more cars, but that's just that many more cars you need storage space for outside of peak hours.

brwr 10y ago

I think you may be experiencing recall bias. How do you get to work every day? How often do you go to the grocery store? What about going out to dinner? For myself, living in the Bay Area, anything related to driving or owning a car is a nightmare -- not that that has stopped me from owning a car. Driving from Mountain View to San Mateo takes about 45 minutes in the morning at 75 minutes in the evening. I went to SF to have breakfast with a friend this past weekend and finding parking took half an hour. I'd love a self-driving car that could just drop me at my door. Autonomous cars should also lead to drastic traffic improvements, assuming the cars will eventually be able to communicate with each other in a reliable way. Maybe you live in a less densely-populated area? I have an aunt that lives in a rural area and I couldn't imagine a need or desire for autonomous cars there. There is definitely a long way to go, but think of all the advantages! Parking can be automated and condensed, which means more land is available for buildings or parks or anything else. If you suffer from traffic problems now, your daily commute could be cut by 50% or more. Shared vehicles should cost less than what you pay for gas and insurance now. High availability is a real possibility if someone can figure out how to make the economics work. Ride sharing can be almost completely automated, leading to less pollution.

riprowan 10y ago
I don't think you read my comment clearly. I think autonomous cars are going to be quite popular, but I don't understand how that necessarily leads to shared instead of privately owned autonomous cars.
- brwr 10y ago
  Ah. We might be talking past each other. Looking back, a number of the advantages I mentioned are inherent in having self-driving cars. But the benefits compound when we have shared self-driving cars. Example: Traffic is improved with self-driving cars because most traffic jams are caused by humans. However, traffic is improved even more when carpooling is automated with a shared self-driving fleet. Shared autonomous cars will become popular as these compounded benefits are realized.
  - 10y ago