5 ms·
I'm using "deadbeat" to refer to people who don't pay back their loans. That's both the literal dictionary use of the term and also a common term in the industr
by yummyfajitas 10y ago
I'm using "deadbeat" to refer to people who don't pay back their loans. That's both the literal dictionary use of the term and also a common term in the industry. Why do you consider it "inflammatory"?
Dang, I understand that you get a lot of flags whenever I point out unpleasant facts. I'm sorry if this bothers you. Should I just accept that HN is no longer a place where uncomfortable realities can be discussed, and move on?
If there are "deadbeats" being subsidized they would obviously not all be of one flavor.
They are disproportionately and predictably of one flavor. That's the entire reason this is a non-simple issue.
Let me take numbers from 7 of this paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-wQVEjH9yuhanpyQjUwQS1JOTQ/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-wQVEjH9yuhanpyQjUwQS1JOTQ...
Based on eyeballing the graph, consider a group which is 50% black and 50% Asian. Every person has a 600 FICO score. Blacks with a 600 FICO score have about a 40% default rate while Asians have about a 20% default rate.
To lend $100 to each member of this group at a fixed interest rate (i.e. we ignore race) and break even we need to charge a 43% interest rate to the mixed group.
The average Asian will pay back $114.40, while the average black will pay back $85.8.
Defaulters come in both flavors - in a group of 100 blacks and 100 Asians, there are 20 Asian defaulters and 40 black defaulters. So the 80 Asians who are not defaulters (using a more awkward word since you object to "deadbeat") are paying higher interest rates to make up for predictable losses caused by the 40 black defaulters.
If we did not bar the use of racial information then we'd charge blacks a 66% interest rate and Asians a 25% interest rate. This would be statistically unbiased (i.e. it removes omitted variable bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias ) and would not result in a predictable transfer of wealth from Asians to blacks. Individually this does seem unfair.
I am expressing no opinion on which policy is better. I'm pointing out that whatever we do will be in some sense unfair. The only position I'm pushing is numeracy and clear thinking that acknowledges the very real tradeoffs.
(To discuss examples in the article, one could repeat using similar calculations with ad delivery or recidivism. I just go with lending because it's mathematically equivalent and there's lots of published work on it that I can cite.)
- tptacek 10y agoCan I ask why you've opted to compare Asians and Blacks (thus maximizing the gap, without noting that the plurality population of White people fall inside that gap) and why you've opted to make your comparison at 600, a point that again works to increase the gap, while the paper itself pointedly focuses on the 620 prime-rate cutoff at which the "Black" default rate change sharply changes while the "Asian" default rate starts leveling off?
- yummyfajitas 10y agoThat's the fine art of eyeballing a graph; choose numbers that correspond to the ticks on the graph so you have an obvious place to put the ruler. If you choose a different FICO cutoff or whites instead of Asians, the result remains directionally the same. You might get whites paying $110 vs blacks paying $90 (the gap narrows as FICO goes way up) but the same basic point arises. Feel free to play with the numbers yourself if you think my arithmetic is wrong or nonrepresentative. If you find something I'd love to see your corrections.
- tptacek 10y agoBut they already did that work for you. You put extra work into finding a new point of comparison that happens to be more unfavorable to Blacks. Why? If the directional comparison was all you cared about, why not compare Asians to Whites?
- yummyfajitas 10y agoA wise person once said this: "Which numbers do you disagree with? What do you think the more appropriate number would be? Change the numbers and rerun the script, so you can see if your argument even matters." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6726852 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6726852 What happened to that guy? I miss him. He made HN a better place. I didn't find black default rates at FICO=620, maybe you have sharper eyes than me. Feel free to change the numbers and redo the calculation. If you get something substantially different, lets discuss. [edit, in response to your edit: Asians to whites is an equivalent comparison and the result is the same. Asian borrowers subsidize white deadbeats.]