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It's fascinating to see Google and (purportedly) Apple move in a similar direction away from developing their own actual cars and instead building the software

It's fascinating to see Google and (purportedly) Apple move in a similar direction away from developing their own actual cars and instead building the software platform. It makes a lot of sense for Google, who have always struggled with selling products direct to consumers. It is more surprising for Apple, but makes sense if you look at how they can add the most value. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Are cars going to be (even more) commoditised at the low end and differentiated by the platform on top of it (Apple, Google, Tesla) in the same way phone carriers were commoditised by the iPhone? My gut is that they won't (industrial design is a huge part of choosing a car manufacturer), so the dynamics between platform and carrier (Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, etc) are going to be fascinating to see unfold. The traditional car industry moves at such a glacial pace, yet you have two tech titans ceding a lot of control to them. Of course, you then have the "apps" that will run on top of them, like Uber. How they interplay with it all is another dimension too. Tesla has fired the first shot here by restricting usage of non-Tesla car pooling services. It is a worrying thought to think that buying a BMW might mean I'm locked into only renting out my car through Apple-approved car riding services (and while I can't see Apple creating their own car pooling service, never say never). Tesla seems to be the only player doing the entire stack from top to bottom. Very reminiscent of early Apple.

hanief 10y ago
Whether Apple pursue the hardware route remains to be seen. They only changed their strategy, probably to develop the core self-driving technology first then worry about the design of the car later.
petra 10y ago
>> Are cars going to be (even more) commoditised Self driving cars as a service are much better deal for the consumer. And they'll be more commoditized[1], same as taxis are, from the consumer perspective. On the other hand, building the car with the highest reliability , and the lowest cost of operation , is a hard challenge. But: if electric cars are going to win, cars may become mostly batteries on wheels, so a lot of power will go to the battery companies, maybe even to the point they'll build the cars(like Samsung is working on). And about Tesla: a lot of it's value is about brand. cars as a service kill branding(if everybody transports with a Tesla,it's nothing special) . Maybe that's one reason why they don't want their vehicle as a service. [1]One thing i'm curious about : is taxi sharing realistic in a world of self-driven cars ? one guess: to make it viable, someone would have to build cars that are both shareable, but offer privacy for each of the passengers. And actually, this doesn't require self-driving to offer great value, so i wonder why aren't we seeing work on this?
- Ensorceled 10y ago
  Sharing isn't viable. I don't want my 20 minute taxi/CaaS ride to become 30+ minutes as we drive off my route to pick up another rider (and wait for them to come downstairs, pick their way across the slush, close their umbrella, and FINALLY get in the god damn cab)
  - alexc05 10y ago
    Though, with a self driving car sharing would not necessarily mean you both need to use it at the same time. The car could pick you up, drive your 20 minutes, then drive to the other person on its own and drive their 20 minutes. "Serial sharing" not "parallel"
    - Ensorceled 10y ago
      > someone would have to build cars that are both shareable, but offer privacy for each of the passengers The type of sharing you are writing about is not what the comment I was replying to was writing about. I agree FWIW and I think you'll see CaaS co-operatives start up.
      - majewsky 10y ago
        > I think you'll see CaaS co-operatives start up That's assuming that autonomous cars as a product (rather than a service) enter the free market at all.
  - sfifs 10y ago
    Most of people outside the 5% value cash over times. I've seen a lot of people begin to use UberPool in India who would have earlier commuted by partly open and definitely unsafe motor rickshaws. With pooling, they get an air conditioned car ride.
  - aianus 10y ago
    > Sharing isn't viable. I don't want my 20 minute taxi/CaaS ride to become 30+ minutes as we drive off my route to pick up another rider I drive for Uber part time and the majority of riders do choose the POOL option so I think you're wrong here.
kriro 10y ago
I wonder if a fully automated car might actually be a different product category than a "regular" car. I could actually see a decent market for (relatively ugly) self driving cars that are mostly seen as a means to get from A to B. In fact I'm not sure if the ownership model is right for this category. I could see renting/leasing these vehicles on a monthly base as a service and the competition being buying a monthly commute ticket for the train or something. I think my train ticket is in the vicinity of 180 Euro/month and all inclusive (insurance, maintenance) leases for midelevel cars are in the 300 Euro/month+gas range but prices go up a lot if you want to lease for <24 month. I could see paying 500-600/month for a self-driving car that I can also use for grocery shopping and other random stuff.
- intrasight 10y ago
  >market for (relatively ugly) self driving cars that are mostly seen as a means to get from A to B. You mean like a Volvo ;)
  - dagw 10y ago
    Perhaps not the prettiest car ever made, but looks OK to me: https://www.media.volvocars.com/image/low/194846/1_1/5 https://www.media.volvocars.com/image/low/194846/1_1/5
- ajmurmann 10y ago
  I can see that during a relatively short transition period but hope it won't remain that way. Once all cars are autonomous we can do incredible things. For example traffic lights to regulate traffic between cars will be obsolete. Cars can just adjust their speed way before the intersection so that they just miss each other at the intersection. Likewise we can avoid congestion by cars registering for their route in advance. We could raise the speed limits on freeways and other roads that only have cars on them or even remove them entirely since the cars will know better what their limits are than some blanket regulation. It also will be much safer, since self driving cars are likely to quickly become safer drivers, but we will also remove erratic behavior that humans display. For example there won't be no more people who cannot zip properly (currently the majority of US Americans), no more cars not speeding up properly on the freeway on-ramp and then slowing everyone down on the freeway, no more weird stopping and slow driving by drivers who are lost. This will make the overall traffic situation much more predictable and safer.

hanief 10y ago

Whether Apple pursue the hardware route remains to be seen. They only changed their strategy, probably to develop the core self-driving technology first then worry about the design of the car later.

petra 10y ago

>> Are cars going to be (even more) commoditised Self driving cars as a service are much better deal for the consumer. And they'll be more commoditized[1], same as taxis are, from the consumer perspective. On the other hand, building the car with the highest reliability , and the lowest cost of operation , is a hard challenge. But: if electric cars are going to win, cars may become mostly batteries on wheels, so a lot of power will go to the battery companies, maybe even to the point they'll build the cars(like Samsung is working on). And about Tesla: a lot of it's value is about brand. cars as a service kill branding(if everybody transports with a Tesla,it's nothing special) . Maybe that's one reason why they don't want their vehicle as a service. [1]One thing i'm curious about : is taxi sharing realistic in a world of self-driven cars ? one guess: to make it viable, someone would have to build cars that are both shareable, but offer privacy for each of the passengers. And actually, this doesn't require self-driving to offer great value, so i wonder why aren't we seeing work on this?

Ensorceled 10y ago
Sharing isn't viable. I don't want my 20 minute taxi/CaaS ride to become 30+ minutes as we drive off my route to pick up another rider (and wait for them to come downstairs, pick their way across the slush, close their umbrella, and FINALLY get in the god damn cab)
- alexc05 10y ago
  Though, with a self driving car sharing would not necessarily mean you both need to use it at the same time. The car could pick you up, drive your 20 minutes, then drive to the other person on its own and drive their 20 minutes. "Serial sharing" not "parallel"
  - Ensorceled 10y ago
    > someone would have to build cars that are both shareable, but offer privacy for each of the passengers The type of sharing you are writing about is not what the comment I was replying to was writing about. I agree FWIW and I think you'll see CaaS co-operatives start up.
    - majewsky 10y ago
      > I think you'll see CaaS co-operatives start up That's assuming that autonomous cars as a product (rather than a service) enter the free market at all.
- sfifs 10y ago
  Most of people outside the 5% value cash over times. I've seen a lot of people begin to use UberPool in India who would have earlier commuted by partly open and definitely unsafe motor rickshaws. With pooling, they get an air conditioned car ride.
- aianus 10y ago
  > Sharing isn't viable. I don't want my 20 minute taxi/CaaS ride to become 30+ minutes as we drive off my route to pick up another rider I drive for Uber part time and the majority of riders do choose the POOL option so I think you're wrong here.

kriro 10y ago

I wonder if a fully automated car might actually be a different product category than a "regular" car. I could actually see a decent market for (relatively ugly) self driving cars that are mostly seen as a means to get from A to B. In fact I'm not sure if the ownership model is right for this category. I could see renting/leasing these vehicles on a monthly base as a service and the competition being buying a monthly commute ticket for the train or something. I think my train ticket is in the vicinity of 180 Euro/month and all inclusive (insurance, maintenance) leases for midelevel cars are in the 300 Euro/month+gas range but prices go up a lot if you want to lease for <24 month. I could see paying 500-600/month for a self-driving car that I can also use for grocery shopping and other random stuff.

intrasight 10y ago
>market for (relatively ugly) self driving cars that are mostly seen as a means to get from A to B. You mean like a Volvo ;)
- dagw 10y ago
  Perhaps not the prettiest car ever made, but looks OK to me: https://www.media.volvocars.com/image/low/194846/1_1/5 https://www.media.volvocars.com/image/low/194846/1_1/5
ajmurmann 10y ago
I can see that during a relatively short transition period but hope it won't remain that way. Once all cars are autonomous we can do incredible things. For example traffic lights to regulate traffic between cars will be obsolete. Cars can just adjust their speed way before the intersection so that they just miss each other at the intersection. Likewise we can avoid congestion by cars registering for their route in advance. We could raise the speed limits on freeways and other roads that only have cars on them or even remove them entirely since the cars will know better what their limits are than some blanket regulation. It also will be much safer, since self driving cars are likely to quickly become safer drivers, but we will also remove erratic behavior that humans display. For example there won't be no more people who cannot zip properly (currently the majority of US Americans), no more cars not speeding up properly on the freeway on-ramp and then slowing everyone down on the freeway, no more weird stopping and slow driving by drivers who are lost. This will make the overall traffic situation much more predictable and safer.