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There is no market in predicting where I sleep at night because no one is willing to take the other side of that bet.

• dllthomas 10y ago
  So... there exist predictions where being able to do better than a coin flip does not mean you can make money over time. This is in direct contradiction to what you said above: > If you can do better than a coin flip in ANY prediction, you can make money over time. It's also not true even in the case of predictions where there is a relevant liquid market. If everyone can do better than a coin flip, then I can only make money doing better than the rest. And even if I can do better than everyone else, if it's not better enough that the earnings cover my costs I am still losing money over time.