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I wonder if in the end there will be just a single model, and a single faceless coder who actually makes the best predictions, and the whole of Numerai will be
by tinco 10y ago
I wonder if in the end there will be just a single model, and a single faceless coder who actually makes the best predictions, and the whole of Numerai will be just an elaborate way of finding that particular person and his model to make the market.
- BickNowstrom 10y agoWith meta-modeling you can build an ensemble (single model) that beats any individual model. This should also have less variance (See Breiman's Bagging Predictors). I'm saying that even if there is a super talent on Numerai, one should still use, say, 0.95 to 0.05 weights, to "hedge your bets" and improve accuracy. With enough competitors, it becomes near impossible for a single agent to beat all the others combined. Kaggle competitions also see this. https://www.boozallen.com/content/dam/boozallen/documents/2015/12/2015-FIeld-Guide-To-Data-Science.pdf https://www.boozallen.com/content/dam/boozallen/documents/20... [page 93] shows a graph where a simple average of the top models in a competition gives an ensemble model with higher accuracy than any of the individual competitors. I think that is largely the beauty of Numerai. Using adversarial agents to build a "collaborative" model. Disclaimer: Won a few bitcoin on Numerai.