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The grandparent's point wasn't that the people doing the analysis are injecting insider information....it's that the data dump you've been presented could be so

by acchow 10y ago

The grandparent's point wasn't that the people doing the analysis are injecting insider information....it's that the data dump you've been presented could be some fancy encoding of insider information.

usefulcat 10y ago
How would that work? If Numerai already has insider information, why not just use it directly? Why go to the bother (and risk) of anonymizing and distributing it?
- sanswork 10y ago
  Plausible deniability.
  - mrich 10y ago
    There would be none if they were aware the information they hand out contains insider info.
    - ForHackernews 10y ago
      How would you prove it? It's just an anonymous list of features to train a model.
- ubernostrum 10y ago
  As someone else suggested, think of it like parallel construction in law enforcement: an agency already knows someone is guilty, but they know it from illegal surveillance they can't use in court. So they give a tip to an unsuspecting officer to watch out for a car with a broken tail light at a particular location/time, and in the course of the traffic stop the officer finds drugs in the car, then they claim that's how they found out (despite the officer only being there because they already knew).
antognini 10y ago
I think it's unlikely that insider information comes in some nicely formatted dataset with 21 features week in and week out. I think of insider information as usually being a one-off tip that a company is going to take a particular action before they make that information public. This feels more like prosaic financial data. (But I'm not in finance so maybe my perceptions are way off!)
- acchow 10y ago
  Hence why I phrased it "encodes insider information" So you get your tip, and you generate a data set that will result in some data analyst getting the conclusion you want.
gohrt 10y ago
No, grandparent's point was the the AI data dump is misdirection from the actual trading logic.

by acchow 10y ago

usefulcat 10y ago

How would that work? If Numerai already has insider information, why not just use it directly? Why go to the bother (and risk) of anonymizing and distributing it?

sanswork 10y ago
Plausible deniability.
- mrich 10y ago
  There would be none if they were aware the information they hand out contains insider info.
  - ForHackernews 10y ago
    How would you prove it? It's just an anonymous list of features to train a model.
ubernostrum 10y ago
As someone else suggested, think of it like parallel construction in law enforcement: an agency already knows someone is guilty, but they know it from illegal surveillance they can't use in court. So they give a tip to an unsuspecting officer to watch out for a car with a broken tail light at a particular location/time, and in the course of the traffic stop the officer finds drugs in the car, then they claim that's how they found out (despite the officer only being there because they already knew).

antognini 10y ago

I think it's unlikely that insider information comes in some nicely formatted dataset with 21 features week in and week out. I think of insider information as usually being a one-off tip that a company is going to take a particular action before they make that information public. This feels more like prosaic financial data. (But I'm not in finance so maybe my perceptions are way off!)

acchow 10y ago
Hence why I phrased it "encodes insider information" So you get your tip, and you generate a data set that will result in some data analyst getting the conclusion you want.

gohrt 10y ago

No, grandparent's point was the the AI data dump is misdirection from the actual trading logic.