5 ms·

On what are you basing this timeline? You realize that Google already has completely driverless cars roaming around public streets in silicon valley, right? T

On what are you basing this timeline? You realize that Google already has completely driverless cars roaming around public streets in silicon valley, right? There's even the story from an entire year ago about one of them getting pulled over by a police officer [1]. Every major auto manufacturer plus Google, Apple, Uber, and Lyft, and several other software companies are all working on this and they all have stated timelines of public-ready autonomous vehicles around a 2020 - 2021 timeframe. Will they handle every possible road condition in every possible location? No, but I'd be willing to bet money that in 2021 I'll be able to hail a completely driverless taxi/Uber in several major cities. [1] http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/13/us/google-self-driving-car-pulled-over/ http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/13/us/google-self-driving-car-pul...

ghaff 10y ago
I wouldn't put too much money on that bet. Adding twenty years might still be too optimistic.
- mdorazio 10y ago
  Again, based on what? I'd happily put $100 on that bet today.
  - ghaff 10y ago
    Based on the fact that no one is anywhere remotely near being able to do arbitrary pickups and dropoffs of passengers without a driver being present today. And that's totally ignoring any regulatory, legal, etc. realities which I expect will get worked out once the tech is rock solid--which it isn't remotely.
    - mdorazio 10y ago
      But they are near being able to do exactly that. Uber is testing and training its autonomous-capable cars in Pittsburgh right now, picking up and dropping off passengers on real routes every day. At their current rate of testing and expansion they'll have more than enough training data in the next two years or so. The biggest hurdle is regulatory, but there's so much money and so many lives (remember, human drivers kill people on roads every single day) at stake here that even regulatory approvals are moving quickly. See: Michigan [1]. [1] http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/michigan-self-driving-cars/ http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/michigan-self-driving-cars/

ghaff 10y ago

I wouldn't put too much money on that bet. Adding twenty years might still be too optimistic.

mdorazio 10y ago
Again, based on what? I'd happily put $100 on that bet today.
- ghaff 10y ago
  Based on the fact that no one is anywhere remotely near being able to do arbitrary pickups and dropoffs of passengers without a driver being present today. And that's totally ignoring any regulatory, legal, etc. realities which I expect will get worked out once the tech is rock solid--which it isn't remotely.
  - mdorazio 10y ago
    But they are near being able to do exactly that. Uber is testing and training its autonomous-capable cars in Pittsburgh right now, picking up and dropping off passengers on real routes every day. At their current rate of testing and expansion they'll have more than enough training data in the next two years or so. The biggest hurdle is regulatory, but there's so much money and so many lives (remember, human drivers kill people on roads every single day) at stake here that even regulatory approvals are moving quickly. See: Michigan [1]. [1] http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/michigan-self-driving-cars/ http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/michigan-self-driving-cars/