3 ms·

Solar is less than 1% of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 Current projections

by melling 10y ago

Solar is less than 1% of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 Current projections have the United States at 10% solar power by 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_St... "A report finds that solar power's contribution could grow to 10% of the nation's power needs by 2025:" I don't think that's enough clean energy to make a sufficient difference. My feeling is that if we were on a good trajectory, Bill Gates and friends wouldn't be looking to create a huge fund for more research: http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-fund-focused-on-combatting-climate-change-through-innovation/?linkId=32225791 http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-f... Being discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146

toomuchtodo 10y ago
93% of new generation capacity coming online each month is from renewables, according to the EIAs "Electric Power Monthly" and "Electricity Monthly Update" reports. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/
- melling 10y ago
  I think you're reading it wrong: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_es1b http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm... Natural gas: 1,087,236 1,011,464 7.5% Solar: 28,058 19,684 42.5% A lot more natural gas came online than solar. The solar percentage is so high because it's an increase over a much smaller number.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    EDIT: I included natural gas in the total generation mix. That's my mistake. I don't discount additional natural gas coming online; that's a good thing. It throttles faster than nuclear and coal, and produces far less CO2 than coal generation. Natural gas is almost a requirement as renewables scale up until batteries for utility scale storage have dropped in price to be competitive. This is already happening: Tesla is contracting with several utilities to replace their natural gas peaker plants with battery storage substations. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 "Electric generating facilities expect to add more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these additions come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of total additions. If actual additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy source."
    - melling 10y ago
      United States 1,068.4 Gigawatt It doesn't make sense to include natural gas. We added 15GW of renewable energy to our 1068 GW. We really need to do a lot better. Your optimism is unfounded.
i2amsam 10y ago
So, we should do less? The first 1% is the hardest, the next 1% slightly easier, by the time it gets to 10% probably 80% of the hard challenges will be overcome. Successful adoption curves always look like hockeysticks, which means a slow early grind. Less carbon is always better, and taking the gains we can now is better than waiting for perfection.
beefield 10y ago
Globally solar represents more than 1% of electricity.[1] The long term growth rate has been around 40% p.a.[2] If that growth rate stays for 10 more years, the global energy market is going to look very different. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/12/solar-power-passes-1-global-threshold/ https://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/12/solar-power-passes-1-gl... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

by melling 10y ago

toomuchtodo 10y ago

93% of new generation capacity coming online each month is from renewables, according to the EIAs "Electric Power Monthly" and "Electricity Monthly Update" reports. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/

melling 10y ago
I think you're reading it wrong: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_es1b http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm... Natural gas: 1,087,236 1,011,464 7.5% Solar: 28,058 19,684 42.5% A lot more natural gas came online than solar. The solar percentage is so high because it's an increase over a much smaller number.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  EDIT: I included natural gas in the total generation mix. That's my mistake. I don't discount additional natural gas coming online; that's a good thing. It throttles faster than nuclear and coal, and produces far less CO2 than coal generation. Natural gas is almost a requirement as renewables scale up until batteries for utility scale storage have dropped in price to be competitive. This is already happening: Tesla is contracting with several utilities to replace their natural gas peaker plants with battery storage substations. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 "Electric generating facilities expect to add more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these additions come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of total additions. If actual additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy source."
  - melling 10y ago
    United States 1,068.4 Gigawatt It doesn't make sense to include natural gas. We added 15GW of renewable energy to our 1068 GW. We really need to do a lot better. Your optimism is unfounded.

i2amsam 10y ago

So, we should do less? The first 1% is the hardest, the next 1% slightly easier, by the time it gets to 10% probably 80% of the hard challenges will be overcome. Successful adoption curves always look like hockeysticks, which means a slow early grind. Less carbon is always better, and taking the gains we can now is better than waiting for perfection.

beefield 10y ago

Globally solar represents more than 1% of electricity.[1] The long term growth rate has been around 40% p.a.[2] If that growth rate stays for 10 more years, the global energy market is going to look very different. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/12/solar-power-passes-1-global-threshold/ https://cleantechnica.com/2015/06/12/solar-power-passes-1-gl... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics