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Right now I'm most worried about two places when it comes to carbon footprint: US and India. The US is very worrysome now, India in a decade or two. China is wo

Right now I'm most worried about two places when it comes to carbon footprint: US and India. The US is very worrysome now, India in a decade or two. China is worrysome as well, but at least there you can see progress being made on a national scale, which can't really be said yet about the US, and with a Trump administration I'm afraid that even commercial attempts could be spoiled again with an artificially propped up fossil fuel economy. If that happens it's borderline suicidal really.

CptJamesCook 10y ago
80 percent of China's energy production comes from coal. 33 percent of the USA's energy production comes from coal. Although another 33 percent comes from natural gas, which is far from clean. Given that they have 4 times America's population, I'd say China is still very worrisome.
- m_mueller 10y ago
  China has a long way to go for sure. It's just that I do get the impression that the Chinese government is pushing clean energy not just for show. If any place can do massive changes in just one or two decades, it's (atm) China. And since they currently need to find ways to become a fully developed nation with high tech exports anyway, energy tech certainly seems like a good bet. That's why I'm more worried about the US - yes the numbers currently point to China first, but in the US all indicators in the government point to the wrong direction.
  - SnowingXIV 10y ago
    The numbers point to China first, how does that not worry you? You say they can do massive changes in a few decades, you could say that about anyone even the U. S. and we're still far from where we should be. Just because current policy looks like they "heading" that direction this doesn't hold much weight. China is going to do what is best for them economically, while I'd say it's probably smart to invest and make strides now they might not see it that way. I also don't blame them because we had years throughout the industrial revolution with no penalty to get booming. They could view this as it's their turn to crank out everything they can.
    - m_mueller 10y ago
      I never wrote I'm not worried about China.
puranjay 10y ago
India has made solar a priority. We are depending a lot on coal right now, but our leaders are thankfully not obtuse enough to see the future it will lead us to. That we also have enough sunlight to make solar easily feasible is a plus
- m_mueller 10y ago
  I think Solar coupled with batteries or hydroelectric storage makes a lot of sense - decentralized, proven tech, relatively easy to repair, much cheaper to build in remote areas instead of long high voltage power lines. I'm just wondering about Lithium supplies if half the world is going battery powered.
  - awjr 10y ago
    It gets complicated. Lithium supplies could last 360ish years at current production rates. However given certain scenarios it could reduce down to about 17 years. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-There-Enough-Lithium-to-Maintain-the-Growth-of-the-Lithium-Ion-Battery-M https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-There-Enough... More interesting is that Lithium is recycled but cannot find how much per year. In theory 70% of lithium batteries from 5 years ago are recycled back into new batteries.
    - puranjay 10y ago
      I'm of the firm opinion that if supply was to get so scarce, we'd find an alternative tech solution. The economics just work out that way.
  - adrianN 10y ago
    Energy storage in the form of molten salt from thermal solar plants seems a lot easier than building lots of batteries.
    - m_mueller 10y ago
      IMO this needs some citation. The ones I'm aware of are these big expensive spanish power plants. I think this is neither simple nor cost effective compared to batteries, plus the energy is AFAIK only stored short term.
thewhitetulip 10y ago
Just a few days back India installed a huge solar electricity generation project in Tamil Nadu, we have a working smart grid in place like Latur, in the next 2-3 years there is a mandate that all railway platforms shall use solar energy. I think India is taking solar energy seriously. Upto this limit that Indian PM and transport min went to meet Musk about starting Tesla manufacturing in India for Asian markets!
- m_mueller 10y ago
  I wasn't aware of this, thank you for the heads up. India is critical - hundreds of millions of soon-to-become energy consumers, it's imperative that gas/coal gets trumped by alternative thats both carbon neutral and cheaper. If India gets this right the next bigger problem will be Indonesia - unfortunately with a much more worrisome government.
  - thewhitetulip 10y ago
    Yes, even I was unaware of this, it was after meeting a lady who lived in Latur that I realized that we have a smart grid working. They have to install solar panels, use electricity and if excess is generated they can sell it to the grid although, I will say, not a lot of people are using it because of the cost. Money and cost are interpreted in a funny way in India, you ignore it when you do what you like and tend to think too highly of it when you do something you don't want to do. For instance, a typical Indian lady would go xx km to get a short discount on clothing, they'll spend more $ on fuel as compared to the savings they'll get due the the discount, but that's fine. When it comes to installing solar, which will pay itself out within a few years, "no, it costs a lot of $$". It is here that we face deadlock, unless everyone else does it, we don't do it. One positive highlight I'd like to do is that most of India uses solar water heater, at least we have that. Plus with Tesla, I hope we get to a point where solar panels are cheap, and we can store a lot of electricity and not require special cabling for the solar electricity, everything should be a drop in replacement, plus, solar panel prices are said to drop steeply. We are living in interesting times!
- neves 10y ago
  This leaves just the United States as a worrisome country.
forgetsusername 10y ago
>an artificially propped up fossil fuel economy. You underestimate the demand for fossil fuels if you believe the economy is "artificially propped up".
- m_mueller 10y ago
  What I mean is subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. We'd be doing a lot of progress if it were just sold at market value, and if the market price is below the cost of extraction/refinement/distribution, it would just not be pumped out.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >What I mean is subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. The nature of fossil fuel subsidies are tax breaks and unpaid externalities. As far as the former, basically irrelevant: global oil companies (and their employees) pay BILLIONS in taxes annually. We aren't handing them free money. There's a big difference between handing people money to burn, and giving a tax break to companies that, let's face it, are fundamental to national security infrastructure. Regarding the latter: we're working on it. The externalities aren't easy to pin down, and there is much argument over what the values should be.
- TheCoelacanth 10y ago
  If Trump is going to make good on his promise to save coal, that will definitely involve artificially propping it up. Demand for oil is certainly stronger than demand for coal, but still much weaker than it was a few years ago.
curt15 10y ago
With a Trump administration one just has to frame things in terms of national pride. Who wants to be left behind third-world countries in energy innovation?
- m_mueller 10y ago
  Seems to me this doesn't work with rightwing nuts in the US - see life expectancy or the imprisonment rate as examples.

CptJamesCook 10y ago

80 percent of China's energy production comes from coal. 33 percent of the USA's energy production comes from coal. Although another 33 percent comes from natural gas, which is far from clean. Given that they have 4 times America's population, I'd say China is still very worrisome.

m_mueller 10y ago
China has a long way to go for sure. It's just that I do get the impression that the Chinese government is pushing clean energy not just for show. If any place can do massive changes in just one or two decades, it's (atm) China. And since they currently need to find ways to become a fully developed nation with high tech exports anyway, energy tech certainly seems like a good bet. That's why I'm more worried about the US - yes the numbers currently point to China first, but in the US all indicators in the government point to the wrong direction.
- SnowingXIV 10y ago
  The numbers point to China first, how does that not worry you? You say they can do massive changes in a few decades, you could say that about anyone even the U. S. and we're still far from where we should be. Just because current policy looks like they "heading" that direction this doesn't hold much weight. China is going to do what is best for them economically, while I'd say it's probably smart to invest and make strides now they might not see it that way. I also don't blame them because we had years throughout the industrial revolution with no penalty to get booming. They could view this as it's their turn to crank out everything they can.
  - m_mueller 10y ago
    I never wrote I'm not worried about China.

puranjay 10y ago

India has made solar a priority. We are depending a lot on coal right now, but our leaders are thankfully not obtuse enough to see the future it will lead us to. That we also have enough sunlight to make solar easily feasible is a plus

m_mueller 10y ago
I think Solar coupled with batteries or hydroelectric storage makes a lot of sense - decentralized, proven tech, relatively easy to repair, much cheaper to build in remote areas instead of long high voltage power lines. I'm just wondering about Lithium supplies if half the world is going battery powered.
- awjr 10y ago
  It gets complicated. Lithium supplies could last 360ish years at current production rates. However given certain scenarios it could reduce down to about 17 years. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-There-Enough-Lithium-to-Maintain-the-Growth-of-the-Lithium-Ion-Battery-M https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-There-Enough... More interesting is that Lithium is recycled but cannot find how much per year. In theory 70% of lithium batteries from 5 years ago are recycled back into new batteries.
  - puranjay 10y ago
    I'm of the firm opinion that if supply was to get so scarce, we'd find an alternative tech solution. The economics just work out that way.
- adrianN 10y ago
  Energy storage in the form of molten salt from thermal solar plants seems a lot easier than building lots of batteries.
  - m_mueller 10y ago
    IMO this needs some citation. The ones I'm aware of are these big expensive spanish power plants. I think this is neither simple nor cost effective compared to batteries, plus the energy is AFAIK only stored short term.

thewhitetulip 10y ago

Just a few days back India installed a huge solar electricity generation project in Tamil Nadu, we have a working smart grid in place like Latur, in the next 2-3 years there is a mandate that all railway platforms shall use solar energy. I think India is taking solar energy seriously. Upto this limit that Indian PM and transport min went to meet Musk about starting Tesla manufacturing in India for Asian markets!

m_mueller 10y ago
I wasn't aware of this, thank you for the heads up. India is critical - hundreds of millions of soon-to-become energy consumers, it's imperative that gas/coal gets trumped by alternative thats both carbon neutral and cheaper. If India gets this right the next bigger problem will be Indonesia - unfortunately with a much more worrisome government.
- thewhitetulip 10y ago
  Yes, even I was unaware of this, it was after meeting a lady who lived in Latur that I realized that we have a smart grid working. They have to install solar panels, use electricity and if excess is generated they can sell it to the grid although, I will say, not a lot of people are using it because of the cost. Money and cost are interpreted in a funny way in India, you ignore it when you do what you like and tend to think too highly of it when you do something you don't want to do. For instance, a typical Indian lady would go xx km to get a short discount on clothing, they'll spend more $ on fuel as compared to the savings they'll get due the the discount, but that's fine. When it comes to installing solar, which will pay itself out within a few years, "no, it costs a lot of $$". It is here that we face deadlock, unless everyone else does it, we don't do it. One positive highlight I'd like to do is that most of India uses solar water heater, at least we have that. Plus with Tesla, I hope we get to a point where solar panels are cheap, and we can store a lot of electricity and not require special cabling for the solar electricity, everything should be a drop in replacement, plus, solar panel prices are said to drop steeply. We are living in interesting times!
neves 10y ago
This leaves just the United States as a worrisome country.

forgetsusername 10y ago

>an artificially propped up fossil fuel economy. You underestimate the demand for fossil fuels if you believe the economy is "artificially propped up".

m_mueller 10y ago
What I mean is subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. We'd be doing a lot of progress if it were just sold at market value, and if the market price is below the cost of extraction/refinement/distribution, it would just not be pumped out.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >What I mean is subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. The nature of fossil fuel subsidies are tax breaks and unpaid externalities. As far as the former, basically irrelevant: global oil companies (and their employees) pay BILLIONS in taxes annually. We aren't handing them free money. There's a big difference between handing people money to burn, and giving a tax break to companies that, let's face it, are fundamental to national security infrastructure. Regarding the latter: we're working on it. The externalities aren't easy to pin down, and there is much argument over what the values should be.
TheCoelacanth 10y ago
If Trump is going to make good on his promise to save coal, that will definitely involve artificially propping it up. Demand for oil is certainly stronger than demand for coal, but still much weaker than it was a few years ago.

curt15 10y ago

With a Trump administration one just has to frame things in terms of national pride. Who wants to be left behind third-world countries in energy innovation?

m_mueller 10y ago
Seems to me this doesn't work with rightwing nuts in the US - see life expectancy or the imprisonment rate as examples.