6 ms·

Though I think the world is going to be a better place. We're headed for a very difficult political reality in my lifetime. We have a whole lot of challenges co

by devoply 10y ago

Though I think the world is going to be a better place. We're headed for a very difficult political reality in my lifetime. We have a whole lot of challenges coming up, and our leaders don't know what to do about them.

toomuchtodo 10y ago
Luckily, on our current trajectory, its not as bad as you'd think. Even without additional political support, clean energy can finally stand on its own. TL;DR The question is no longer if we'll make it, just when. * Solar and wind are stupid cheap now, and getting cheaper, fast. In over 25 states, rooftop solar is a better investment than the S&P500. [1] You're seeing Power Purchase Agreements under 3 cents/KwH. [2] Solar will only get cheaper. Wind is still being built like crazy in Texas and the central Midwestern US. Some utilities even offer power for free at night wind power is so plentiful (and transmission capability lacking). [3] Tesla/SolarCity has already moved into Florida now that the utility-sponsored Amendment 1 failed. (Which was an underhanded utility attempt to hinder rooftop solar deployment) * Utility scale battery storage has arrived. Again, its only going to get cheaper (Tesla's Gigafactory is a big deal, but lots of other players in the market as well) [4] [5] [6]. Tesla has already installed a microgrid on an island in the Pacific that satisfies all of the island's power needs, removing the need for their diesel generators to produce island power. * Tesla will deliver its Model 3 in the next 12-18 months. I have no doubt Elon will drive Tesla into scaling up to 1 million vehicles/year in production (relying primarily on their recent German manufacturing automation acquisition) [7]. While I would like to see Nissan and GM make EVs that aren't purely compliance cars (Bolt? Pleasssssse), I think they're good enough for urban dwellers or car share networks where you're sticking to major metros. (Full disclosure: TSLA investor) * OPEC has finally agreed (after 8 years) to reduce supply to push oil prices back up. Even with US shale coming back online at those profitable market prices ($60-80+/barrel) and some of OPEC cheating on those cuts (who wants to reduce their revenue artificially?), that only does one thing: accelerates the transition to EVs. [8] * Repealing the Clean Power Plan will not be able to stop the phase out of coal power due to cheap natural gas. Market forces at work. [9] * Federal electric vehicle subsides will phase out within the next 2 years for all manufacturers due to hitting the sales quotas dictated by the statute's phaseout provisions [10]. No point in trying to remove them. * Solar and wind ITC tax credit extensions (to 2021) agreed to by Congress were bipartisan. In exchange, restrictions were removed on the export of crude oil from the US. This agreement will not be unwound. [1] https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-infographic-state-solar-investment-returns/ https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-infographic-s... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-developers-undercut-coal-with-another-record-set-in-dubai https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-dev... [3] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environment/a-texas-utility-offers-a-nighttime-special-free-electricity.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environmen... [4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-wins-utility-contract-to-supply-grid-scale-battery-storage-after-porter-ranch-gas-leak https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-win... [5] https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-scale-powerpack-installation-asia-pacific/ https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-sc... [6] https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-battery-solar/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-batter... [7] https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-engineering-firm-create-tesla-advanced-automation-germany/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-enginee... [8] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said... [9] http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-compliance-natural-gas-part-of-future-strategy/431143/ http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-com... [10] https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-works-tesla-model-3/ https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-w...
- melling 10y ago
  Solar is less than 1% of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 Current projections have the United States at 10% solar power by 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_St... "A report finds that solar power's contribution could grow to 10% of the nation's power needs by 2025:" I don't think that's enough clean energy to make a sufficient difference. My feeling is that if we were on a good trajectory, Bill Gates and friends wouldn't be looking to create a huge fund for more research: http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-fund-focused-on-combatting-climate-change-through-innovation/?linkId=32225791 http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-f... Being discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    93% of new generation capacity coming online each month is from renewables, according to the EIAs "Electric Power Monthly" and "Electricity Monthly Update" reports. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/
    - melling 10y ago
      I think you're reading it wrong: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_es1b http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm... Natural gas: 1,087,236 1,011,464 7.5% Solar: 28,058 19,684 42.5% A lot more natural gas came online than solar. The solar percentage is so high because it's an increase over a much smaller number.
      - toomuchtodo 10y ago
        EDIT: I included natural gas in the total generation mix. That's my mistake. I don't discount additional natural gas coming online; that's a good thing. It throttles faster than nuclear and coal, and produces far less CO2 than coal generation. Natural gas is almost a requirement as renewables scale up until batteries for utility scale storage have dropped in price to be competitive. This is already happening: Tesla is contracting with several utilities to replace their natural gas peaker plants with battery storage substations. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 "Electric generating facilities expect to add more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these additions come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of total additions. If actual additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy source."
formula1 10y ago
I think your giving more power to politics than they deserve. They are effectively Coorperations pawns

by devoply 10y ago

toomuchtodo 10y ago

Luckily, on our current trajectory, its not as bad as you'd think. Even without additional political support, clean energy can finally stand on its own. TL;DR The question is no longer if we'll make it, just when. * Solar and wind are stupid cheap now, and getting cheaper, fast. In over 25 states, rooftop solar is a better investment than the S&P500. [1] You're seeing Power Purchase Agreements under 3 cents/KwH. [2] Solar will only get cheaper. Wind is still being built like crazy in Texas and the central Midwestern US. Some utilities even offer power for free at night wind power is so plentiful (and transmission capability lacking). [3] Tesla/SolarCity has already moved into Florida now that the utility-sponsored Amendment 1 failed. (Which was an underhanded utility attempt to hinder rooftop solar deployment) * Utility scale battery storage has arrived. Again, its only going to get cheaper (Tesla's Gigafactory is a big deal, but lots of other players in the market as well) [4] [5] [6]. Tesla has already installed a microgrid on an island in the Pacific that satisfies all of the island's power needs, removing the need for their diesel generators to produce island power. * Tesla will deliver its Model 3 in the next 12-18 months. I have no doubt Elon will drive Tesla into scaling up to 1 million vehicles/year in production (relying primarily on their recent German manufacturing automation acquisition) [7]. While I would like to see Nissan and GM make EVs that aren't purely compliance cars (Bolt? Pleasssssse), I think they're good enough for urban dwellers or car share networks where you're sticking to major metros. (Full disclosure: TSLA investor) * OPEC has finally agreed (after 8 years) to reduce supply to push oil prices back up. Even with US shale coming back online at those profitable market prices ($60-80+/barrel) and some of OPEC cheating on those cuts (who wants to reduce their revenue artificially?), that only does one thing: accelerates the transition to EVs. [8] * Repealing the Clean Power Plan will not be able to stop the phase out of coal power due to cheap natural gas. Market forces at work. [9] * Federal electric vehicle subsides will phase out within the next 2 years for all manufacturers due to hitting the sales quotas dictated by the statute's phaseout provisions [10]. No point in trying to remove them. * Solar and wind ITC tax credit extensions (to 2021) agreed to by Congress were bipartisan. In exchange, restrictions were removed on the export of crude oil from the US. This agreement will not be unwound. [1] https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-infographic-state-solar-investment-returns/ https://solarpowerrocks.com/infographics/solar-infographic-s... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-developers-undercut-coal-with-another-record-set-in-dubai https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-dev... [3] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environment/a-texas-utility-offers-a-nighttime-special-free-electricity.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environmen... [4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-wins-utility-contract-to-supply-grid-scale-battery-storage-after-porter-ranch-gas-leak https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/tesla-win... [5] https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-scale-powerpack-installation-asia-pacific/ https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/tesla-powerpack-first-grid-sc... [6] https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-battery-solar/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/22/tesla-island-microgrid-batter... [7] https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-engineering-firm-create-tesla-advanced-automation-germany/ https://electrek.co/2016/11/08/tesla-acquires-german-enginee... [8] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said... [9] http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-compliance-natural-gas-part-of-future-strategy/431143/ http://www.utilitydive.com/news/tva-ceo-clean-power-plan-com... [10] https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-works-tesla-model-3/ https://cleantechnica.com/2016/04/19/how-the-ev-tax-credit-w...

melling 10y ago
Solar is less than 1% of electricity: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 Current projections have the United States at 10% solar power by 2025: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_St... "A report finds that solar power's contribution could grow to 10% of the nation's power needs by 2025:" I don't think that's enough clean energy to make a sufficient difference. My feeling is that if we were on a good trajectory, Bill Gates and friends wouldn't be looking to create a huge fund for more research: http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-fund-focused-on-combatting-climate-change-through-innovation/?linkId=32225791 http://qz.com/859860/bill-gates-is-leading-a-new-1-billion-f... Being discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13155146
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  93% of new generation capacity coming online each month is from renewables, according to the EIAs "Electric Power Monthly" and "Electricity Monthly Update" reports. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/#tabs_unit-4 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/ http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/
  - melling 10y ago
    I think you're reading it wrong: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_es1b http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm... Natural gas: 1,087,236 1,011,464 7.5% Solar: 28,058 19,684 42.5% A lot more natural gas came online than solar. The solar percentage is so high because it's an increase over a much smaller number.
    - toomuchtodo 10y ago
      EDIT: I included natural gas in the total generation mix. That's my mistake. I don't discount additional natural gas coming online; that's a good thing. It throttles faster than nuclear and coal, and produces far less CO2 than coal generation. Natural gas is almost a requirement as renewables scale up until batteries for utility scale storage have dropped in price to be competitive. This is already happening: Tesla is contracting with several utilities to replace their natural gas peaker plants with battery storage substations. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25172 "Electric generating facilities expect to add more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the power grid during 2016. Most of these additions come from three resources: solar (9.5 GW), natural gas (8.0 GW), and wind (6.8 GW), which together make up 93% of total additions. If actual additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy source."

formula1 10y ago

I think your giving more power to politics than they deserve. They are effectively Coorperations pawns