5 ms·

I wouldn't be so confident about naming a particular ceiling price, but as oil becomes more expensive demand will fall and individuals and industries will move

by motters 17y ago

I wouldn't be so confident about naming a particular ceiling price, but as oil becomes more expensive demand will fall and individuals and industries will move to other sources of energy. In particular within the next 5-10 years it looks as if electric vehicles are going to be a growth area, mainly driven by rising costs on conventional fuel.

ars 17y ago
Electricity is not a "source of energy". If the price of oil goes up the price of electricity goes up too. There are no other sources of energy that are really practical today. Although some are close.
- motters 17y ago
  The price of electrons is not necessarily linked to oil production, since electrons can be produced in ways which don't require much or any oil. There are other eminently practical energy sources available. The main issue is that these have historically not been price competitive with oil. As oil extraction becomes more difficult the economics of energy will change.
  - ars 17y ago
    I don't think you realize how interconnected, and interchangeable all forms of energy are. Not being price competitive with oil means it costs more energy to make then it produces. If something made more energy than it costs to make it (over 10 to 20 years), then it would be built. Why not build it? It's guaranteed profit. But, in actuality there isn't anything like that. Every single form of energy is being tapped to the maximum possible. It's the nature of capitalism. If the price of oil went up, the price of everything goes up. If the price of raw materials goes up, it costs more to build some alternate form of energy, so you get nowhere.
    - motters 17y ago
      The idea that capitalism is either a natural or optimal system doesn't stand up to much serious scrutiny. If you're referring to "cost" in terms of energy cost then yes there is always some amount of energy which needs to be put in to get energy out, with the result being the net energy gain. For other forms of energy, such as bio-fuels, the net energy gain is presently smaller but this does not invalidate these technologies. As the complexity of extracting oil increases its net energy gain will reach parity with other energy sources, and then begin to lag behind them. The economy - with all its foibles - will eventually back the winners out of pure necessity.

by motters 17y ago

ars 17y ago

Electricity is not a "source of energy". If the price of oil goes up the price of electricity goes up too. There are no other sources of energy that are really practical today. Although some are close.

motters 17y ago
The price of electrons is not necessarily linked to oil production, since electrons can be produced in ways which don't require much or any oil. There are other eminently practical energy sources available. The main issue is that these have historically not been price competitive with oil. As oil extraction becomes more difficult the economics of energy will change.
- ars 17y ago
  I don't think you realize how interconnected, and interchangeable all forms of energy are. Not being price competitive with oil means it costs more energy to make then it produces. If something made more energy than it costs to make it (over 10 to 20 years), then it would be built. Why not build it? It's guaranteed profit. But, in actuality there isn't anything like that. Every single form of energy is being tapped to the maximum possible. It's the nature of capitalism. If the price of oil went up, the price of everything goes up. If the price of raw materials goes up, it costs more to build some alternate form of energy, so you get nowhere.
  - motters 17y ago
    The idea that capitalism is either a natural or optimal system doesn't stand up to much serious scrutiny. If you're referring to "cost" in terms of energy cost then yes there is always some amount of energy which needs to be put in to get energy out, with the result being the net energy gain. For other forms of energy, such as bio-fuels, the net energy gain is presently smaller but this does not invalidate these technologies. As the complexity of extracting oil increases its net energy gain will reach parity with other energy sources, and then begin to lag behind them. The economy - with all its foibles - will eventually back the winners out of pure necessity.