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One thing most people don't think about. The kelly criterion isn't particularly useful for investors, as you need to be able to quantify the expected outcomes.
by unknownsavage 10y ago
One thing most people don't think about. The kelly criterion isn't particularly useful for investors, as you need to be able to quantify the expected outcomes. It's not particularly useful for gamblers (rarely do they have quantifiable positive expected value), but it's an absolutely amazing resource for casinos themselves.
Almost every bet that happens on a casino floor the casino can quantify their expected returns and risks and knowing the state of their bankroll knowing what is sensible to risk or not.
But other than that, it probably is mainly useful to teach investors a healthy fear of variance. If it'd be foolish for a casino with a $1M bankroll to let a roulette player bet more than $12000 on a spin, it might give you a healthy sense of the importance of diversification.
- thom 10y agoEvery pro gambler and every syndicate I know is trading based on a model, so I'm not sure Kelly's quite as rare in gambling as you think. I do think it's interesting to think about the work required when adding expert judgements on top of model outputs, though.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]